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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro perfectly spaces all three shortwaves so that it is minimal impact. Kind of comical actually. It's so easy to see the potential but that shortwave spacing is mucking it up. Running out of time. Still a shot but that needs to get cleaned up quickly. 

Stop wishing this away

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Gotta say though...even if this next one misses, that is not it. Another right in the pipeline....which has some ens support. Today's OP euro is pretty fun. That's like a January or February overrunning setup. Really cold high. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta say though...even if this next one misses, that is not it. Another right in the pipeline....which has some ens support. Today's OP euro is pretty fun. That's like a January or February overrunning setup. Really cold high. 

Yep the 26th to 28th has been popping up more and more, and hey just in time for your ski trip! Go Rhody

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Models are still struggling on which low to hang the hat on. I wouldn't turn my back on it yet. Should resolve itself in the next day or so. Still time as we've seen some decent corrections at day 3 even. Maybe it whiffs but I wouldn't put money on that right now. Not a smart bet at this moment in my opinion. For my own selfish reasons I hope it's a complete whiff. I have a t-time set up for next Friday. Love me some early season golf.

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I think I can stick a fork into whatever happens next week, whatever might happen in SNE is not  coming up this far north.  Just to keep you guys in perpetual winter mode, and for pure fun I attached the  10 day Euro snowfall totals .  I think we can look this one in.  As DIT would say,  oh boy, oh boy, oh boy...

Meanwhile, crazy wind, blowing snow and super cold up here this afternoon.  That cold front that past mid day means business.  Temps falling even with a March 17th full sun.  Pure winter mode...

Untitled.jpg

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

I think I can stick a fork into whatever happens next week, whatever might happen in SNE is not  coming up this far north.  Just to keep you guys in perpetual winter mode, and for pure fun I attached the  10 day Euro snowfall totals .  I think we can look this one in.  As DIT would say,  oh boy, oh boy, oh boy...

Meanwhile, crazy wind, blowing snow and super cold up here this afternoon.  That cold front that past mid day means business.  Temps falling even with a March 17th full sun.  Pure winter mode...

Untitled.jpg

2 days no melting down here in Mid March is quite the feat. I like our chances for the 2nd chance a lot. First could still come North but time is running out for anything major  

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She coming . Ensemble approach 

Ensemble 

Lol, dude that looks awful 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta say though...even if this next one misses, that is not it. Another right in the pipeline....which has some ens support. Today's OP euro is pretty fun. That's like a January or February overrunning setup. Really cold high. 

Yeah, but if that doesn't work out I am comfortable calling it for the season.

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The 'pattern' as it has been behaving .. which has consisted of -NAO west based and/or tendencies there in, is going away. 

That's per the GEFs ensemble based teleconnector spread.   We have about this week; by next weekend, the phase has flipped in the mean/derivatives ... and with an on-going -PNA ... this next system may be it. This is the fourth consecutive day of very persistent teleconnector change coming from both agencies... +PNA ..? Gone as of today (actually) and the NAO has through Wed or Thursday and then it's positive. Granted others may have access to EPS based derivatives that do or don't support - .. I have come to find that the weight of the GEFs based performs reasonably well during mode changes however, at least predicting times when that's setting in, just the same.

There is that caveat 'bowling season' thing, and post this -NAO it is not abundantly clear we are going to rush into balmy times.  The operational models have been hesitant to really latch onto a pattern change ... but that's not atypical (I have found) when attempting to migrate from a cool to warm complexion. It seems they rush in changes to cold, and lag changes to warm - not sure why that is... But, with the -PNA/+NAO combination, along with considering pattern residence times associated with NOA typically not last as long as other planetary signals ... mm, smacks as one of those times.

As for this week, there's still a lot of hope there that this will get more charged as the week progresses.  I don't see the book as closed on this because of the usual suspect uncertainty factors... data sampling/wave origins... complex stream interactions and native model biases, all of which offer a cornucopia of reasons there's less coherent storm genesis.  It still looks from 100,000 feat on ensemble members like it's just a placeholder moving through the flow ... waiting for something to actually be in it.  That said, yeah ...it could certainly wobble by to the south spawning innocuous inconsequential waves ... followed by 4 or 5 days of cool blustery annoyingly boring weather before any said deeper push toward spring takes place.   

 

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It's def a good sign that both the EPS and GEFS are NW of the OP runs. That signal has worked quite well over the years. We will need to see a real move though in the next 24 hours. If 00z tonight goes the wrong way then this one will be on life support...but if it bumps NW then we are right in the game. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Today, just the tip shown on the ens. Tomorrow, the smashes return on the op.

Right now we're the team that has been hanging around all game...it's the 3rd quarter now and we're down a touchdown. Still in the game but the next score is big...whichever team it goes to has a huge impact. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's def a good sign that both the EPS and GEFS are NW of the OP runs. That signal has worked quite well over the years. We will need to see a real move though in the next 24 hours. If 00z tonight goes the wrong way then this one will be on life support...but if it bumps NW then we are right in the game. 

and I still think there's sampling missing wave mechanics into this thing... NCEP's been hitting sparseness pretty hard.  When/if that happens.. the whole lead system could be damped more in lieu of spacing contentions... Or, the lead could become more dominant -

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