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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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4 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Heck a day or two before this last storm people were cliff jumping lol

Well that happens in every storm. :lol:

 

But empirically speaking, the EPS didn't start showing a pretty threatening signal until once inside of 100 hours, so that is why I'd wait a little longer on the current threat...especially since it is the southeast outlier amongst multi-model ensemble guidance.

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I'd also add that the EPS tends to move along with the operational a bit more readily as a mean ... So the Euro went disjointed more so and lost some coherency etc... this run being flat could really just be a mean/average of the same shebang -  ... 

For me, the bigger telling aspect is the discontinuity that Kevin (of all people..heh) succinctly expressed awhile ago with that blurb about 12z off, 00z on, 12z off oscillatory confusion. 

It really means the model cluster isn't very good with this and I'd leave it at that.  Or as Will said... just give it a day and a half. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd also add that the EPS tends to move along with the operational a bit more readily as a mean ... So the Euro went disjointed more so and lost some coherency etc... this run being flat could really just be a mean/average of the same shebang -  ... 

For me, the bigger telling aspect is the discontinuity that Kevin (of all people..heh) succinctly expressed awhile ago with that blurb about 12z off, 00z on, 12z off oscillatory confusion. 

It really means the model cluster isn't very good with this and I'd leave it at that.  Or as Will said... just give it a day and half. 

And if all else fails......just run with the ICON...LOL

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that happened in the previous two threats in the medium range (D4-6). I like a lot of aspects about this setup overall. I wouldn't really be worried unless this Euro-esque solution keeps showing for another 3 cycles or so.

Euro agrees with the 12z JMA; that tells us pretty much all we need to know about what it's showing.

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Ha ha ... 

sounds like NCEP has a pretty clear picture on how this thing will evolve ...

"....WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS... EAST... GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST, MAXIMIZED ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WHAT WILL MAKE THE WINTER ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING FOR MUCH OF THE EAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IS THE ROLE OF SUN ANGLE (TIME OF DAY), PRECIPITATION RATE, ELEVATION, AND COASTAL PROXIMITY NOT TO MENTION MESOSCALE BANDING (UNRESOLVED UNTIL THE VERY SHORT RANGE) AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW (OR LOWS) AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON ROAD SURFACES VS GRASSY AREAS. THAT BEING SAID, THE UPSIDE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN ALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (NOT THE MOST LIKELY, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE MID-ATLANTIC IN LATE MARCH), BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LITTLE TO NO SNOW (OR LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EVEN IF SNOWING) WITH LESS THAN IDEAL SNOW-MAKING CONDITIONS. WITH A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS, PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION IS IDEAL... INCLUDING OUR WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR NEXT MON-FRI...."

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS are def pretty ugly. But that said, I'll remind everyone to take a look at the March 8th EPS for the 3/13 storm...they were hideous too. They really didn't start looking decent until the 3/9 runs (and the OP took even a little longer) which is why I'd give it another couple cycles. The GEFS def did better in the medium range. It doesn't mean they will beat the EPS this time though....EPS are still the best in the business, but right now they are def the SE outlier. GEFS/GEPS are well NW of them and so is the OP Ukie (no ensembles for that).

Last Saturday morning the GFS was barely advisory criteria for Augusta on Tues-Wed, and even that was an improvement from the day before.  By 00z Sunday it was showing a buck and a half, which was pretty close to where it sugared off.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well that happens in every storm. :lol:

 

But empirically speaking, the EPS didn't start showing a pretty threatening signal until once inside of 100 hours, so that is why I'd wait a little longer on the current threat...especially since it is the southeast outlier amongst multi-model ensemble guidance.

What are the things you are looking at that you have been liking to get this a SNE hit?

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31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd also add that the EPS tends to move along with the operational a bit more readily as a mean ... So the Euro went disjointed more so and lost some coherency etc... this run being flat could really just be a mean/average of the same shebang -  ... 

For me, the bigger telling aspect is the discontinuity that Kevin (of all people..heh) succinctly expressed awhile ago with that blurb about 12z off, 00z on, 12z off oscillatory confusion. 

It really means the model cluster isn't very good with this and I'd leave it at that.  Or as Will said... just give it a day and a half. 

That oscillation was prevalent in the mid-range before the last storm too. 12z would be flat as a pancake and 0z would be up at NS.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are the things you are looking at that you have been liking to get this a SNE hit?

I like the southern stream wave behind the initial bowling ball and also the northern stream injection...they are going to try and force the whole trough to amp up. We also don't have a good block on this one...so the SE Canada PV lobe can lift out quicker with any forcing from the south.

 

Doesn't mean it is going to hit obviously. That bowling ball outrunning the other two shortwaves could end up problematic. But there's some reasons to believe we get things to pan out.

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1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

Better to be towel throwing now, than getting invested only to be bridge jumping later, lol.

I don’t agree.  You’ve been around a long time.  How many times have you seen whiffs SE in late March?  It can happen but it’s lower odds vs mid winter.

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