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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Jeez for you guys down there.  Still a long way off.  If this works out you will hear a little more whining from me.  Basically fringe job on the 3 past noreasters up here.  Grabbed my 9" from the last one.  Just a bit further north of me  they just got killed with epic upslope and that ULL.  Nothing here.  So if the trend continues SNE will get another big snowfall and I'll whiff up here again.

Just now happy with my 85" of snow this season so I got to complain a bit more

Rant ova...

(for today)

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Jeez for you guys down there.  Still a long way off.  If this works out you will hear a little more whining from me.  Basically fringe job on the 3 past noreasters up here.  Grabbed my 9" from the last one.  Just a bit further north of me  they just got killed with epic upslope and that ULL.  Nothing here.  So if the trend continues SNE will get another big snowfall and I'll whiff up here again.

Just now happy with my 85" of snow this season so I got to complain a bit more

Rant ova...

(for today)

:weenie:

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NCEP makes an interesting statement this morning in their ext. range discussion ... I mentioned this awhile ago, the metaphor of this things handling being like a 'place-holder' that is waiting for something more substantial to actually show up and be placed inside it.  ...i.e., waiting for that to happen for something perhaps to be more proficiently sounded - 

"....MEANWHILE, THE CRITICAL PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE BERING SEA INTO WESTERN ALASKA THIS MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN RAOB NETWORK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SAMPLING SHOULD IMPROVE WITH (HOPEFULLY) A CONTINUED REDUCTION IN MODEL SPREAD, ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEX PHASING PROCESS OF TWO RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST...." 

This may very well turn out to be the missing mechanics here.  We'll see... I wonder if this Euro run sniffs that out a little - 

Frankly, not the most rational "feeling" here but ...I almost would rather not have a 'big bomb' anywhere on the charts.  I need the rest.  Or at least, if one gets going, maybe a modicum of predictability is a luxury that is poetically been earned here.   Let's win this next one by half time ?   'Nough with field goals with 3 seconds on the clock -

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree...I've been on the north train with this one the past couple days. There's a lot of reasons it will want to come north...however there is obviously a limit with that PV lobe in SE Canada. But it's not like it's being held there by an intense west based block....it is moveable to a certain extent.

That 2nd northern stream shortwave diving in from MN/IA really ignites the whole thing on some of these runs.

That seems to be driving quite a bit of the sensitivity today.

If that lobe is stronger, this ends up a more shredded/weaker evolution. If heights are a little higher off to our NE, we have a good shot at this coming north.

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