EastonSN+ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Yes, the unpleasant surprise with the last storm was not the precip type, but its lack of persistence and intensity. 3.5" is a bitter pill to swallow when guidance is giving you 1" QPF. I'm just keeping my expectations squarely in check. It certainly could surprise, but CTRV in mid to late March is not a great place for snow. Yep, for the last storm it had more to do with the bands sitting to the east and west of you. Bad luck. How much did you get in the previous storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Iors the model criticism is not unw arranted. We did just go through a period of poorer model predictability (given the Pacific jet has been in an equatorward/retracted state for a while that isn't surprising). The Euro still "won" the past week, but around the period of the storm the GFS popped in for one day to win the anomaly correlations (when looking at day 5 progs). At day 3 the GFS crapped itself, but the Ukie bested the Euro. So while overall the model doesn't suck, it's still #1, in this event is did seem to hit a speed bump. Both the btv wrf and the nam at 60hrs Out were showing the wide spread impacts of the storm while the euro was picking its nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You know what, the euro was crap with The last System. One of the last models to catch on to the widescale Impacts of This. Seems mets knee jerk to rush in and find some perspective to look thru to maintain the euro is their life raft when forecasting but its struggling. Its struggling inside day 3.5 . Have no idea what the heck you are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yep, for the last storm it had more to do with the bands sitting to the east and west of you. Bad luck. How much did you get in the previous storm? I did fine in the middle storm. 11" of paste and the most blinding blue thundersnow I've ever seen. That was a solid event, and with the proper perspective I can say that a double digit snow in March is a big win here, but there's always that "what might have been" thought with the others. An impressive series of storms at a New England wide scale, I just wish we could've done this in February. Could've been up there with Feb '15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Both the btv wrf and the nam at 60hrs Out were showing the wide spread impacts of the storm while the euro was picking its nose Caveat here, is that the NAM doesn't go into those hemispheric calculations because it is only North American domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 If we end up with a strung out weak system as advertised this could be a scenario where it snows for 36 hrs and in the end everyone picks up like 3-6" that melts the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: If we end up with a strung out weak system as advertised this could be a scenario where it snows for 36 hrs and in the end everyone picks up like 3-6" that melts the next day. Or everyone melts after only picking up 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Have no idea what the heck you are talking about Its your sybian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Def sounds like a potential beast, but we will see if potential is realized. You could be head deep at SR. Edit meteocentre Doesnt Have last nite ukie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: If we end up with a strung out weak system as advertised this could be a scenario where it snows for 36 hrs and in the end everyone picks up like 3-6" that melts the next day. People looking at central pressure? Huh looks very juicy with lots of inflow 6Z isn't out yet but wanna bet it's even more anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GEFS mean is 8 to 10 across all SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I don’t know where pickles is getting his Euro blather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I don’t know where pickles is getting his Euro blather. I looked back at EPS and op runs, man a run here or there was off but seems to me it was pretty spot on final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I looked back at EPS and op runs, man a run here or there was off but seems to me it was pretty spot on final outcome Even at twice a day, that's 10 runs from day 5 in. One run or two is bound to spit the bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t know where pickles is getting his Euro blather. Well if you were looking at the weenie snow maps you'd think it was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Oh this ones coming and hard at that. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 9 hours ago, henry1978 said: October 2 1978, Yankees lead the Red sox 5-4. Bottom of the ninth, two men on, one man out. League MVP Jim Rice steps up to the plate facing Goose Gossage. Gossage has absolutely nothing and is struggling on every pitch. Jim Rice swings and goes deep to right. It would've been a home run in Yankee Stadium where it's 353 feet but at Fenway its a long out and Yaz then pops out to end the game. This entire game is on youtube. all anyone ever talks about is bucky dent but truth be told It's one of the best baseball games ever played and the mid 70s red sox turned boston from a hockey town into a baseball town. The game was broadcast on tv 38 with the hawk ken harrelson, abc with Keith Jackson but YouTube has the Yankee Wpix feed with Phil Rizzuto going all Archie Bunker on sox pitcher mike Torrez, Phil Rizzuto saying he thought a former red sox player was gonna bite him in the press box when bucky dent hit the home run. You'll notice the pace of play and how fast it was. No banging spikes with the bat a la nomar, no stepping out of the box a la jeter, no adjusting elbow pads a la arod, no taking off ankle pads, Fisk and Munson weren't walking to the mound every 30 seconds. no ads all over fenway, no 600 club, no montster seats, no loud music. Just sherm feller, an organ and 33 thousand fans watching one of the greatest sporting events ever. many baseball games had historic moments. Mazeroski 1960 home run, Gibson home run, Fisk home run, buckner, boone, damon grand slam, Koufax, but nothing beats 1978. Mm... I that sounds like generational grandiosity ... it's natural to covet one's own as a humanly bias. Though it is getting increasingly rarefied to find any present culturally over-stimulated-into-A.D.D. 'younger folk' even capable of being transfixed by activities that require the focused attention of baseball's between-the-bleacher story-lines... , to those who are out there and were literally not a part of that former reality (...back in the last century ...) they probably annul events in a different degree of awe-factor. The first time ever in history, a team coming back from an 0-3 hole in a Championship Series, 2004 Red Sox vs the Yankees, to stun the entire cinematic audience of that particular show ...they prooooobably thinks that's pretty damn high on that list, if not arguable the best baseball story ever told. Because it wasn't just one game... it was sudden death in three consecutive games, each one have infinite proportioned stakes... It's like that one 1978 game, times three - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Suppression is real. Not worried about supression....larger concern may be that the system gets sheared apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not worried about supression....larger concern may be that the system gets sheared apart. Well, That really my point, If its weak its going to be south, And right now its pretty strung out with multiple waves on a boundary, Even the last piece looks to move north but its looks more SWFE'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Well, That really my point, If its weak its going to be south, And right now its pretty strung out with multiple waves on a boundary, Even the last piece looks to move north but its looks more SWFE'ish Gotcha. Yea, that is a risk with the -PNA....shearing...Tip's fav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not worried about supression....larger concern may be that the system gets sheared apart. You just agreed with Jerry that's it's coming and coming Hard? If you're concerned that it gets sheared...then it's not coming hard at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I don't see a sheared system but not a stemwinder either. I see lots of PWAT over an Arctic dome. Looks pretty prolific with progs of over 1 inch at 60% at lead. Long duration PD2 96 ish 993 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Well if you were looking at the weenie snow maps you'd think it was wrong. And those aren’t generated by the model source but many weenies forget that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Euro had that 1 burp run within 48 hrs, but otherwise did fine. For the most part a lot of guidance had a burp run, but the NAM did well overall IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro had that 1 burp run within 48 hrs, but otherwise did fine. For the most part a lot of guidance had a burp run, but the NAM did well overall IMO. Speaking of weenie snow maps the 3k NAM Kuchie day of was an almost replica of what happenned outside the Cape including the 55 at Woodford which had 48 last check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't see a sheared system but not a stemwinder either. I see lots of PWAT over an Arctic dome. Looks pretty prolific with progs of over 1 inch at 60% at lead. Long duration PD2 96 ish 993 or so There’s a limit to how far north this gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Euro was def slow to catch on with last system outside of D3...it was pretty far E. It did well inside of 48 hours though other than the one burp run. I'll point out though that it wasn't wrong in every system inside of D3 this month...the previous system (the obscene paste bomb on 3/7-8) it absolutely schooled other guidance showing the colder/east solution while the GFS and NAM were busy driving the low up Ginxy's fanny and jackpotting Oneonta, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a limit to how far north this gets ? Deets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a limit to how far north this gets 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Deets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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