H2Otown_WX Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 0, 10.4, 6.3. A solid March so far but looking for a capstone event since I've been left out of the CJ JP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 19.5 for March. The next system may be warm but we will see. Want the guidance further south at this juncture. Na I disagree that it will be warm we have a relatively cold week in advance of it and the cold airmass will be around for the storm if it does comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 22 minutes ago, snowman21 said: 0, 4, 1 so far for me this month. Hoping for one last shot before the 9 month snow break. 0,4,1 for me also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Depends on what one is thinking when they use the adjective "warm" to describe what is becoming increasingly more possible per passing model cycle for yet another in a steady diet of coastal storms - this next one centered roughly on March 20th. NCEP: "...THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD WHILE LOCATIONS FROM FROM THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PROPORTION OF RAIN VS SNOW BASED ON SURFACE LOW TRACK SPREAD. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER STORM THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WIND/PRECIP EFFECTS TO AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST. ..." If by warm, one is thinking rain... while I would not outright discount that possibility as a show of respect and acknowledgement to March climatology ... for this particular system/hemispheric circumstance governing, even at this far out in time (D 6.5), the correction vector is pointed toward colder system types. That's per larger mass-field (tele's) arguments combined with trends ..et al. It is getting late in the year, and fact of the matter is... and yes, the sun is passing over the Equator on that day which ... for spatial homage is like September 20th - imagine that..? That said, I have seen blowing snow at 1 pm as late as April 11 before. But, drama aside, the NAO is not going anywhere (I don't believe). The west based nature of the block may at times appear to be dissolved (and I don't buy the 00z Euro's notion of summer south of the Mason Dixie D9+) but the vestigial tendency for it is still being placed there by the hemispheric circulation overall...such that given the smallest reason to reestablish its self, it does. You can see this in occasional operational guidance cycles... But, it's not just the NAO really..? It's really the entire collar of the 60th parallel around the hemisphere having that tendency...probably keyed into the general (though slowly recovering) -AO. The Euro in fact has a -3 EPO suddenly...actually the GEFs have that index, WPO too for that matter, both tanking over the next week. AA phases of the N. Pacific don't tend to parlay to warm Marches - too early for that. Anyway... the short version is that yet another winter storm is possible if not likely early to mid next week. Right now...I'd lean moderate potency and probably average size (in terms of areal coverage)? But that could certainly change. I would also lean colder on the N arc and probably colder than the models would resolve at this lead. Also... some 9 GEFs members from 00z out of the 12 I saw have significant cyclones depicted, perhaps lending confidence. We seem to be locked into a weekly periodicity and regular oscillatory behavior is not that uncommon during in situ patterns. Until we lose that 60 N tendency for blocking nodes, I suggest the base canvas has not changed. A circumstance that I think fades until diabatic wash really finally beats the season to death ...I dunno, first week of April. That doesn't mean we're guaranteed of course.. but until that becomes more evidence, we probably have actionable atrocities to the spring/warm weather enthusiasts. Probably could use excerpts of this post to start a thread actually ... but, someone else do it - I did the last three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 This next event has sped up on the models and is now a Monday night / Tuesday storm instead of what they initially had of a Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2, 12, 10.5 here. Could have been much better but that’s typically how my winter’s go. Always close to the big ones but never truly big. That’s what she said. I am above avg for the season though so not a bad way to close out the season...Another good event would raise the winter grade up a notch. Currently sits around 77 out of 100. If it weren't for all the rainers I would say yes......while this March encore is nice and all I can't get behind a winter featuring that horid stretch we had mid Jan through Feb.....just awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, ice1972 said: If it weren't for all the rainers I would say yes......while this March encore is nice and all I can't get behind a winter featuring that horid stretch we had mid Jan through Feb.....just awful I get it but most winters have bad stretches sprinkled throughout... it just so happenned ours came in one lump sum of 6-8 weeks smack in the middle. But if you totalled those good winters with bad stretches I bet you would total around the same 6 weeks, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I get it but most winters have bad stretches sprinkled throughout... it just so happenned ours came in one lump sum of 6-8 weeks smack in the middle. But if you totalled those good winters with bad stretches I bet you would total around the same 6 weeks, give or take. I know.....I don't normally get all worked up about it but dude.....the rain.....all the rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 hours ago, JKEisMan said: 8", 24", 7" for the last 3 storms in New Fairfield. Would be interesting to see a map for total March accumulations across SNE. Tickling 40" here for March so far and only halfway through. Can we top 50"? 60"? Would be a Morch to remember. I was up in your neighborhood on Sunday morning and it was pretty incredible up over the hilltops. I'm not used to seeing that significant a snowpack in that area. I went back up to another spot on Monday and it had dropped a bit but was still a lot for March. I'm about 25 miles south, pretty much at the top of my hill, and had 12", 18" and 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2, 12, 10.5 here. Could have been much better but that’s typically how my winter’s go. Always close to the big ones but never truly big. That’s what she said. I am above avg for the season though so not a bad way to close out the season...Another good event would raise the winter grade up a notch. Currently sits around 77 out of 100. I have not had a double digit accumulation in over a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, ice1972 said: I know.....I don't normally get all worked up about it but dude.....the rain.....all the rain..... If only we could share some of that extreme cold in Dec for them rainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Maybe next Tues-Weds on the 12z GFS will give some more double digits........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I have not had a double digit accumulation in over a year. See, perspective is everything. I will aprreciate my 10 inchers more now. Don’t you worry though, there will be many west zone snow bombs next winter. edit: maybe you just have to wait until this Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Maybe next Tues-Weds on the 12z GFS will give some more double digits........... #hydroissues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe next Tues-Weds on the 12z GFS will give some more double digits........... Prob two middle fingers by some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: #hydroissues Close, But a snow issue here.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Prob two middle fingers by some Yeah, The ones that thought spring arrived 10 days ago............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Another foot here on the GFS... not that I would put any stock in that pos model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: #hydroissues Running out of places to put the snow. Gfs drops another foot for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Running out of places to put the snow. Gfs drops another foot for all How high are the driveway banks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Running out of places to put the snow. Gfs drops another foot for all A lot will melt between now and then in this late August-early September like sun. And that's showing rain for E and SE MA after a little front end snow. Verbatim of course. EURO was a whiff up until 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: #hydroissues it's going to be a problem at some point . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Another foot here on the GFS... not that I would put any stock in that pos model Just started looking at this one for obvious reasons as its still snowing here from yesterdays storm but the Euro had it too at 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: A lot will melt between now and then in this late August-early September like sun. And that's showing rain for E and SE MA after a little front end snow. Verbatim of course. EURO was a whiff up until 0z last night. Eps is way to go at this range. Sharpen your shovel . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Canadian and Hitler are nice. GFS is a pike north special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Just started looking at this one for obvious reasons as its still snowing here from yesterdays storm but the Euro had it too at 0z last night. Been on and off ... the "general public" peeps are all aware of the possibility too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just started looking at this one for obvious reasons as its still snowing here from yesterdays storm but the Euro had it too at 0z last night. Yeah. Gives even more on the oz Euro... still so far out, but at least trackable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Been on and off ... the "general public" peeps are all aware of the possibility too Keith Carson ,Todd Guntner as well as Charlie Lopresti have made sure the "all" know too..................., I'll wait a few more days before i rile up the masses again on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, The ones that thought spring arrived 10 days ago............... Spring on schedule here. Golf course opening next week. I always like to be there for the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Been on and off ... the "general public" peeps are all aware of the possibility too It has reaached mainstream. Someone at work mentioned possible snowstorm on Tuesday...I think they knew the ‘chance’ before I did, huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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