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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is back on the saddle for next Wednesday. That's a legit airmass out in front of that storm on all guidance. The coldest antecedent airmass we've seen in weeks.

Does it shows another nor'easter rolling up the coast or just an improvement from its OTS solution earlier?

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1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Does it shows another nor'easter rolling up the coast or just an improvement from its OTS solution earlier?

Its out of sea solution became a coastal snowstorm this run....but obviously we've got a long ways to go before really getting too serious with this threat.

 

But it has some good ensemble support so we shall see.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is back on the saddle for next Wednesday. That's a legit airmass out in front of that storm on all guidance. The coldest antecedent airmass we've seen in weeks.

 

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

CMC also in the game, but tries to take it over the canal.

That would be a nice combination for the interior.  LOL    We needed a colder look to the north for lower elevations away from the coastal ccb to score today.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its out of sea solution became a coastal snowstorm this run....but obviously we've got a long ways to go before really getting too serious with this threat.

 

But it has some good ensemble support so we shall see.

Hopefully not a coastal hugger that would introduce chances of mixing.

 

Let's see what the Euro says- should be coming out now.

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Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

Euro is a coastal hugger but it's a lot weaker than the GFS. Good news is that it's 168 hours away with a lot more runs to go 

So the GFS was a benchmark track while the Euro was more like over eastern LI or something like that?

 

Interesting that they switched positions from the storm that just happened.

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5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So the GFS was a benchmark track while the Euro was more like over eastern LI or something like that?

 

Interesting that they switched positions from the storm that just happened.

It goes just south of LI but a little warm near the south coast verbatim. Kind of a weird look but I'm sure it will be completely different at 12z.

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Interesting scenario developing this morning into the afternoon. An arctic shortwave is rounding the base of the trough and has a negative tilt over VA and NC this morning it is showing lift developing over NE VA in water vapor imagery. This could put Eastern MA in the game again for some surprise snows, the models are not dealing with this correctly

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10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Interesting scenario developing this morning into the afternoon. An arctic shortwave is rounding the base of the trough and has a negative tilt over VA and NC this morning it is showing lift developing over NE VA in water vapor imagery. This could put Eastern MA in the game again for some surprise snows, the models are not dealing with this correctly

How many we can bring some love down to the LHV, western and central CT regions because they missed out big with yesterday...

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45 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How many we can bring some love down to the LHV, western and central CT regions because they missed out big with yesterday...

Parts of Western CT did ok yesterday in the west most band. I received 9.5 in it and some towns over 10.

Agreed for LHV and central CT although they made out really well too in the last storm (I received 10 in that one and lost power).

We need a good old fashioned Washington to Boston pounding and associated media frenzie.

 

DYMY2QcX0AA9MJE.thumb.jpg.bea1df80e8e25c6064ab543ec33e35f8.jpg

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Interesting scenario developing this morning into the afternoon. An arctic shortwave is rounding the base of the trough and has a negative tilt over VA and NC this morning it is showing lift developing over NE VA in water vapor imagery. This could put Eastern MA in the game again for some surprise snows, the models are not dealing with this correctly

:weenie:

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Parts of Western CT did ok yesterday in the west most band. I received 9.5 in it and some towns over 10.

Agreed for LHV and central CT although they made out really well too in the last storm (I received 10 in that one and lost power).

We need a good old fashioned Washington to Boston pounding and associated media frenzie.

 

DYMY2QcX0AA9MJE.thumb.jpg.bea1df80e8e25c6064ab543ec33e35f8.jpg

Lol...that’s a very old map.

Steve posted this link in the obs thread which shows it nicely along with a list on the side.

 

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=box

 

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...that’s a very old map.

Steve posted this link in the obs thread which shows it nicely along with a list on the side.

 

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=box

 

Thanks. However they have my old 6.5 measurement for Easton on that map from 10:00 am. The other map had my final obs of 9.5.

Gets me angry.

The UPTON snowfall list has my 9.5.

 

 

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8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is back on the saddle for next Wednesday. That's a legit airmass out in front of that storm on all guidance. The coldest antecedent airmass we've seen in weeks.

From zilch to advisory level for up here, and lots of time if that trend could continue.  And that arctic air is the first real cold since early last month.  We've had at least one subzero morning in March 18 of 19 years here - 2010 bottomed out at a modest 11 - and I'd given up on this year until seeing those -20 H8s for next week.

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41 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

8", 24", 7" for the last 3 storms in New Fairfield. Would be interesting to see a map for total March accumulations across SNE.

Tickling 40" here for March so far and only halfway through.  Can we top 50"? 60"?  Would be a Morch to remember.

2, 12, 10.5 here. Could have been much better but that’s typically how my winter’s go. Always close to the big ones but never truly big. That’s what she said. 

I am above avg for the season though so not a bad way to close out the season...Another good event would raise the winter grade up a notch. Currently sits around 77 out of 100.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Parts of Western CT did ok yesterday in the west most band. I received 9.5 in it and some towns over 10.

Agreed for LHV and central CT although they made out really well too in the last storm (I received 10 in that one and lost power).

We need a good old fashioned Washington to Boston pounding and associated media frenzie.

 

DYMY2QcX0AA9MJE.thumb.jpg.bea1df80e8e25c6064ab543ec33e35f8.jpg

Yes you did make out pretty good considering with yesterday's storm... I have done pretty decent as well with these 3 noreasters (2", 10", 4.5") so 16.5" for the month is great for March and its only the 14th.  

 

 

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10 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes you did make out pretty good considering with yesterday's storm... I have done pretty decent as well with these 3 noreasters (2", 10", 4.5") so 16.5" for the month is great for March and its only the 14th.  

 

 

19.5 for March. 

The next system may be warm but we will see. Want the guidance further south at this juncture.

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