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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Writing to the general reader here ... a "straw-man argument"

Those bold words above are about all this system has in support, which is typically a signal that many have trouble wrapping their heads around in lieu of actually seeing a stem-wound beauty of a cyclone on the charts. However, one way or the other, the teleconnections win.  Sorry ... I don't personally feel very comfortable using the UKMET as a deterministic fall-back at any time ( it does have support as suggested below).

These teleconnector curves and/or numbers ...they are not just numbers that we associated to certain meanings ... They actually are, for all intents and operations, reflecting mass distribution - literally... For example, if the NAO numbers are "down", there must by physical law be counter-balancing regions of mass that either alone or in the aggregate sum up to equal and opposite amount of "up."  Simple precept:  Mass is neither lost or destroyed in the ongoing maelstrom of the planetary system's circulation.  

Understanding that probably provides also the seeds to understanding what is meant by a "corrective event."  ...If one of these indexes, say the PNA were to enter a period of time where the numbers are changing ...that means that the counter-balancing mass fields to the PNA (usually internally, around the edges, or nearby adjacently) will also then forced to enter a period(s) of adjustment.  If a static synoptic atmosphere, conditions enter a calm state, but when perturbed by said forcing ... that "disturbs" said rested state = coastal ..or tornado...or whatever.

That's at the root of it all really... at all scales for that matter.  The sun heats the air mass over the interior land regions on a summer day until  it becomes buoyant; that air starts to rise (that's akin to a teleconnector entering a phase change); the rising air instantiates a surface return flow of cooler stable oceanic boundary layer air to replace it.  This response/balancing mechanism cools the coast.  Thus, one would say, 'there is teleconnection that signals cooling on the coast' with the onset of a sea breeze.  One regions mass was perturbed, and the a conjoining region was forced to change. We just don't label teleconnections for all scales, intents or purposes in that manner.

Where we do is at the grander scope of hemispheric Meteorology... If the PNA is forced to significantly alter its phase state ... there is a teleconnection over N/A accordingly.  

So ..the reason I am going through all this is because we may very well not receive a meaningful impact event this week, despite the PNA change ... despite all this arguing for a 'corrective event'.  However, there is a storm system that is going to evolve - that much is clear, and much to perhaps the chagrin of the hopefuls.  Don't conflate missing out on a storm/disappointment therein, as some sort of failure in all this.  We are not defeating the physical laws of mass distribution in the atmosphere when one is not happy with the outcome. It may seem obvious or silly to say.. .but, I've often read disgruntled people try to blame teleconnector adherence as some sort of set up for their misfortune, when it was the ...channeling of model cinema and/or storms for their happiness that was the real problem. 

There's also a question of thresholds, too.  A region can be perturbed, but not enough.  In this situation, however, I'd estimate changing the PNA from - 3 SD to +1.5 is probably enough, and well .. every GEFs member has 'some' kind of storm.. Again, impacting NE is not really a physical prerequisite for satisfying the above theoretical application. 

Just remember ... the "boxing day storm" ... that one was flattened down to pancake wave status ...and didn't come back until it was 36 hours out.  T

You did so well, and then you dropped that, and that is all the weenies will run away with..."Tip thinks the Boxing Day Storm is an analog. It's coming!!!"

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3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

You did so well, and then you dropped that, and that is all the weenies will run away with..."Tip thinks the Boxing Day Storm is an analog. It's coming!!!"

Lol... fair enough... I consider myself warned of the water surging out to sea what comes next - a tsunamis of blame and resentment...

Actually, anecdotally ...that system was pedestrian along Rt 2 where I was at the time... That region of Massachusetts seemed to end up in the nadir region of a kind of "bow gravity wave", ...like the stationary wave cast by boat?  (Analog). Anyway, that was nearly stationary in the height of the storm... and it imparted enough DVM to reduce totals.  We ended up with 3-5" of sintered cryo dust in frigid gelid tree whirring wind gusts.  Meanwhile, folks to the south by mere 10 miles + were throwing snow in the air like a 2004 Patriots game meets with winter storm trophy ceremony.  

What was interesting about that, the model runs before hand had a distinct "notch" of lower QPF charted for this region.  A met buddy and I dismissed it as model noise ...couldn't see any precise reason that had to be there.  But...there we were...he was in Fitchburg ... I was in Ayer... neighboring towns for all intents and purposes.  Neither one of us took home anything remotely memorable relative to our region's climate zone -  

Anyway, I don't mean to really compare this to the Boxing day storm?  In fact, I haven't even looked back at the synoptics/made any such comparisons.. .None.  I merely meant to say, "storms can correctly a lot in short order."  Even in this day and age of conceit with modeling/technology advances, that is still true.

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26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Maybe this is one more example of the models having a big storm seven or eight days out losing it for a couple days and then coming back later. Most of the mets seemed to be hedging towards a bigger event the last few days Despite the models.

Usually when Dave Tolleris says no chance or no way, it happens. Before Wed storm he berated weenies for thinking anything more than a foot was possible, especially not 2 feet (not talking 3k elevation in Vermont). He said in Jan 2016 no way big snows north of philly. Jan 15 he said no way euro is wrong with philly to nyc hecs. And now, for days he has said no way this is a nyc to boston snows.

Forecasting in absolute certainy rarely works. So with that said.... no effin way, zero chance, this will be a big storm for west of the river. 

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Usually when Dave Tolleris says no chance or no way, it happens. Before Wed storm he berated weenies for thinking anything more than a foot was possible, especially not 2 feet (not talking 3k elevation in Vermont). He said in Jan 2016 no way big snows north of philly. Jan 15 he said no way euro is wrong with philly to nyc hecs. And now, for days he has said no way this is a nyc to boston snows.

Forecasting in absolute certainy rarely works. So with that said.... no effin way, zero chance, this will be a big storm for west of the river. 

I meant to ask him why he was so certain that it wouldn't get up here....silly.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looked like you would get some yesterday when we talked,  nice 

There is a tree guy, not far from me just over the canal that has a business where all he and his guys do is take down trees. They don'tremove the tree from your property, but they cut them into pieces small enough for the homeowner to remove. I believe they do it for $50 a tree if you have a group of trees that need to come down.

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55 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

There is a tree guy, not far from me just over the canal that has a business where all he and his guys do is take down trees. They don'tremove the tree from your property, but they cut them into pieces small enough for the homeowner to remove. I believe they do it for $50 a tree if you have a group of trees that need to come down.

Unfortunately these are high risk trees over the house that require precision removal in very tight spots.

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