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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Maybe this should be in the banter thread, if so I'll move it, but I had some people ask me why we are getting so many storms in March like this, and I replied it's not a rare thing, but trying to explain, I guess because the southern stream is ramping up, season change, northern stream still active, PNA phase change? Can anyone explain to me why we tend to get some very large storms around the ides of March? Thanks in advance.

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18 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Maybe this should be in the banter thread, if so I'll move it, but I had some people ask me why we are getting so many storms in March like this, and I replied it's not a rare thing, but trying to explain, I guess because the southern stream is ramping up, season change, northern stream still active, PNA phase change? Can anyone explain to me why we tend to get some very large storms around the ides of March? Thanks in advance.

In simplist terms and in general, March storms benefit from the enhanced/increased baroclinicity as winter transitions to Spring...and the Gulf stream warms.    

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24 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Maybe this should be in the banter thread, if so I'll move it, but I had some people ask me why we are getting so many storms in March like this, and I replied it's not a rare thing, but trying to explain, I guess because the southern stream is ramping up, season change, northern stream still active, PNA phase change? Can anyone explain to me why we tend to get some very large storms around the ides of March? Thanks in advance.

I believe changing wavelengths play a roll. You have opportunities for cutoff bowling ball type systems.

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2 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

In simplist terms and in general, March storms benefit from the enhanced/increased baroclinicity as winter transitions to Spring...and the Gulf stream warms.    

Yeah, basically what I told them...also that some of the biggest storms we've had have been around this time of year

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15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

TWC just said on WU that the models have backed off the northeaster next week.  I guess they don't look at the Ukie.

And, we don't look at TWC, for guidance.  Lol

Although I'd currently favor a track too far SE for a big regionwide hit (say 40% probability)...there's still time for things to evolve more favorably, relative to model consensus.  Time will tell.  

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31 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

TWC just said on WU that the models have backed off the northeaster next week.  I guess they don't look at the Ukie.

They have invented a new type of cyclone, the QuestionClone. It's neither High nor Low pressure, Rain nor Snow, it may not even be a real thing, it's up to you to decide. 

DCT_SPECIAL105_1280x720.jpg.5054bea25c411b7eac15dccd45f6618b.jpg

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we're screwed after Saturday night. Not doing late Euro on Sunday night even if the threat is strong.

 

Anyways, keep that northern stream moving west and we're in the game.

In 20 years you will be pissing with the rest of us geezers at 3 am and checking the Euro.  Speaking of old became a Great Grandfather today yikes 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

In 20 years you will be pissing with the rest of us geezers at 3 am and checking the Euro.  Speaking of old became a Great Grandfather today yikes 

I’m not even 40 yet and I’m leaking at night. Congrats big great grand dad. Old schooler with many kids and many grandkids...a weenie legacy.

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