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The March Lion Storm


cyclone77

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27 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

**** this winter! 

Honestly, how do you go from being a big rain maker to literally missing the entire region without even a drop in a matter of 24 hours? I'm over this winter, if that's what you want to call it. I don't think I've ever been so disappointed than right now. Then again, the last three winters including this one have been anything but great! 

 

Missing a storm in the middle of winter is worse than missing one in late February/early March.  Besides, a lot of areas don't need a ton of rain again given what happened recently.  

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Missing a storm in the middle of winter is worse than missing one in late February/early March.  Besides, a lot of areas don't need a ton of rain again given what happened recently.  

OT but..

Areas in the Southwest especially Texas towards Colorado, California, etc., could really use a moisture laden system. Haven't had a classic s/w drop down towards California all winter due to the massive ridge towards the Aleutians which has suppressed the stj. Not a severe wx expert, but I'm assuming this could have an impact on the severe weather season for our area. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

HRRR at the end of its run also looks amped. Maybe the 18z NAM is garbage? Who knows.

Comparing all the models at 21 hr from 21z (Both NAMs, RAP, GFS, and Euro) the NAM 12 is by far the weakest and most disorganized of the model projections.

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Just a couple thoughts in regards to the LOT area...

One, I noticed that Lake Michigan shoreline temps have risen to the upper 30s.  I'm not sure if that is enough to really be a factor in dictating precip type/temps... I tend to think that how the dynamics play out is much more important in this case since we're not talking about water temps well into the 40s or 50s.

Two, the frontal passage has dropped temps into the 30s near the lake, and there will be over 12 hours spent in the 30s prior to the possibility of a changeover to snow, which doesn't hurt. Things could become messy if rates are heavy enough, even if temps stay a little above freezing.

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The last-second trend towards better phase is a welcome sight this winter!  I don't know if there will be warning criteria snow in southern MI or not (just seems like such a short window for dynamic cooling to do its work and the low really intensifies as it's pulling east of there)...probably a ranging from little to no accums along Lake Michigan to a general 2-4" type snow with some local lollis possible, especially farther east.  I do think as the low intensifies a band of warning criteria snow is likely somewhere over the northern half of Lake Erie into western NY and Erie County, PA.  Probably just south of Toronto but I think 2-4" is a good call for there.  That area over western NY where the best band may sort of stall as the low closes off/stalls and then jumps to the coast could easily see over a foot.

Locally, I think the band of synoptic snow grazes extreme northern OH...could drop a quick 1-3" type snow, perhaps 4 or 5" near the lake in extreme NE OH.  The storm phasing better and closing off aloft earlier improves the lake enhancement look for us, especially with 850mb temps now looking to dip to -10 or -11C by late Thursday night/early Friday.  The 0z GFS is tending to keep 80%+ 700mb RH (my general proxy for decent lake/terrain enhancement on the backside of a synoptic system) over Cleveland until around 12z Friday with some remnant deformation evident at 700mb through most of Thursday night extending into northeast OH.  The UK appears similar to the GFS as it closes off the 500mb low earlier like the GFS and has decent QPF over NE OH after 6z.  The hi-res models (ARW and NMM) also appear slower.  The NAMs and Canadians are all a bit quicker.  Gut is to lean towards the slower models given the trend seems to be for a more amped solution, but it doesn't take a huge difference to make it go either way.   Temps by 6z do start getting cold enough for ratios to creep up a bit which I think will help.  If the slower models are correct, I think the lake/terrain enhanced snows push the higher terrain in NE OH to 6-10" increasing to 8-15" in inland NW PA...if it's quicker, can probably shave 30% off of those numbers.  

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17 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The last-second trend towards better phase is a welcome sight this winter!  I don't know if there will be warning criteria snow in southern MI or not (just seems like such a short window for dynamic cooling to do its work and the low really intensifies as it's pulling east of there)...probably a ranging from little to no accums along Lake Michigan to a general 2-4" type snow with some local lollis possible, especially farther east.  I do think as the low intensifies a band of warning criteria snow is likely somewhere over the northern half of Lake Erie into western NY and Erie County, PA.  Probably just south of Toronto but I think 2-4" is a good call for there.  That area over western NY where the best band may sort of stall as the low closes off/stalls and then jumps to the coast could easily see over a foot.

Locally, I think the band of synoptic snow grazes extreme northern OH...could drop a quick 1-3" type snow, perhaps 4 or 5" near the lake in extreme NE OH.  The storm phasing better and closing off aloft earlier improves the lake enhancement look for us, especially with 850mb temps now looking to dip to -10 or -11C by late Thursday night/early Friday.  The 0z GFS is tending to keep 90%+ 700mb RH (my general proxy for decent lake/terrain enhancement on the backside of a synoptic system) over Cleveland until around 12z Friday with some remnant deformation evident at 700mb through most of Thursday night extending into northeast OH.  The UK appears similar to the GFS as it closes off the 500mb low earlier like the GFS and has decent QPF over NE OH after 6z.  The hi-res models (ARW and NMM) also appear slower.  The NAMs and Canadians are all a bit quicker.  Gut is to lean towards the slower models given the trend seems to be for a more amped solution, but it doesn't take a huge difference to make it go either way.   Temps by 6z do start getting cold enough for ratios to creep up a bit which I think will help.  If the slower models are correct, I think the lake/terrain enhanced snows push the higher terrain in NE OH to 6-10" increasing to 10-18" in inland NW PA...if it's quicker, can probably shave 30% off of those numbers.  

The 04z RAP HRRR went gangbusters. 992mb low near Cleveland. :o

It's virtually pound town in Detroit after the changeover.

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Just now, Powerball said:

The 04z RAP went gangbusters. 992mb low near Cleveland. :o

It's virtually pound town in Detroit after the changeover.

The 4z HRRR is similar.  If something like that happens, I can certainly see warning criteria in far SE Michigan.  I'm taking the under on that for now, but the short rangers are certainly amped. 

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7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The 4z HRRR is similar.  If something like that happens, I can certainly see warning criteria in far SE Michigan.  I'm taking the under on that for now, but the short rangers are certainly amped. 

Sorry, I meant the HRRR (time for bed, lol).

But even the RAP, now that I've seen it, is impressive on its own (996mb south of Cleveland). 

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