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The March Lion Storm


cyclone77

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That was actually the best run (Euro) yet for the QC to Chicago area.  Would be a nice 5-8" cement pasting verbatim.  The frenetic nature of the model runs will likely continue for another 48hrs, so I'm not gonna get too excited either way at this point lol.  Sure would be nice if we were dealing with a widespread snow event, but that's definitely not what we have with this system.

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That was actually the best run (Euro) yet for the QC to Chicago area.  Would be a nice 5-8" cement pasting verbatim.  The frenetic nature of the model runs will likely continue for another 48hrs, so I'm not gonna get too excited either way at this point lol.  Sure would be nice if we were dealing with a widespread snow event, but that's definitely not what we have with this system.

Well as far as I'm concerned, even if it doesn't actually come to fruition, this means that we get to enjoy the possibility that it will beforehand, which is fun in itself. 

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8 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Well as far as I'm concerned, even if it doesn't actually come to fruition, this means that we get to enjoy the possibility that it will beforehand, which is fun in itself. 

The Euro has up to an inch of precip over parts of northern IL after the changeover occurs.  It's p-type forecast falsely changes the precip back over to rain on the back side of the heavier snows, which won't happen, so the snowfall accumulation maps (verbatim) are actually underdoing it a bit.  LSRs will likely be below 10:1 though, so it would probably even out.  That's really getting into too much detail at this point for obvious reasons, but it shows the potential for a period of very heavy wet snows after the changeover.

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47 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That was actually the best run (Euro) yet for the QC to Chicago area.  Would be a nice 5-8" cement pasting verbatim.  The frenetic nature of the model runs will likely continue for another 48hrs, so I'm not gonna get too excited either way at this point lol.  Sure would be nice if we were dealing with a widespread snow event, but that's definitely not what we have with this system.

 

44 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Well as far as I'm concerned, even if it doesn't actually come to fruition, this means that we get to enjoy the possibility that it will beforehand, which is fun in itself. 

 

20180226 12z Euro Snowfall map.png

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

That was actually the best run (Euro) yet for the QC to Chicago area.  Would be a nice 5-8" cement pasting verbatim.  The frenetic nature of the model runs will likely continue for another 48hrs, so I'm not gonna get too excited either way at this point lol.  Sure would be nice if we were dealing with a widespread snow event, but that's definitely not what we have with this system.

Definitely been persistent in trying to dump significant snow in northern IL over the last few runs.

The million dollar question where the changeover occurs is the boundary layer temps... how much snow will be "wasted" with temps 34-35 vs near/below freezing?  The Euro has a number of hours here with snow and 2m temps above freezing, but 925 mb temps below freezing during that time.  

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21 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Been out of the loop mostly on this with it being my son's 1st bday weekend and baptism, but just looked at 12z Euro. In a marginal thermal profile setup, always good to be suspicious of the GFS. Often does a poor job picking up on dynamic cooling/evaporative cooling combo. Obviously surface low track will have a huge say in who gets what, but the GFS being suspiciously warm when it should be cooling lower levels in a dynamic system is a classic GFS bias. If anyone was following east coast system last Saturday, GFS completely missed a heavy wet snow for parts of NYC metro (NYC had 2-5" and parts of NE NJ had 8-9" and you had to go well north of that to get into snow accums on 12z GFS that day), while NAM and Euro did a much better job.

 

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

Pretty preposterous considering how the weather has been in recent months and bi-monthly periods...

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57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

NAM would be a major impact around here... not just the snow, but the wet snow/wind combo.  Mixing depths aren't all that great but the low level flow is strong and ripping in off the lake.  Hard to trust it yet though with how much it has been shifting around.

My grid up to 80% likely RN->SN for later Thursday. Going to be all about the ever-elusive dynamical cooling. I just want/need 1.6" to hit a solid 5 feet on the season so my bar is not that high for this lol

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