Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 I know everyone is concentrating on the storm starting tomorrow evening but did any of today's model runs still show a storm for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Awfully dry out there. Dew of 2 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Next 8 days still averging 39degs., or about 5 degs. BN. Month to date is -2.1. Should be -3.1 by the 27th. For tomorrow's storm: GFS>>>14" CMC>>>11" NAM>>>12" EURO further south this run, and down to 6"+. NWS expects 13" with a 7" minimum. SREF is 7.5". Let's see what is left on ground when this is done. There are mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 another fakeout for nyc would be hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: another fakeout for nyc would be hilarious It would finally without a shadow of a doubt prove that such late season big snowfalls are just not possible anymore in heavily urbanized environments around here + climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Another storm will threaten much of the region with accumulating snow. As had been the case with previous nor’easters, the northern and western suburbs will likely see the greatest amounts of snowfall. However, unlike with the previous three nor’easters, New York City will likely see its biggest snowfall of the month. Select snowfall estimates: Bridgeport: 6”-12” Farmingdale: 5”-10” Islip: 4”-8” Morristown: 6”-12” New York City: 5”-10” Newark: 6”-12” Poughkeepsie: 5”-10” White Plains: 6”-12” The preliminary amounts may be conservative, but there remains a fairly large spread among the guidance. Since 1869, Central Park has only seen 3 10” or greater snowstorms on March 20 or later: April 12-14, 1875 10.0”; April 3-4, 1915 10.2”; and, March 20-21, 1958 11.8”. Some of the guidance would beat those amounts. In the wake of the storm, March 2018 will very likely be the 2nd or 3rd snowiest March on record in Islip. It could also rank as the 3rd snowiest March on record at Bridgeport. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/19 38.4° (2.1° below normal) 3/20 38.3°-38.6° (3/19 estimate: 38.1°-38.7°) 3/25 37.7°-38.9° (3/19 estimate: 37.9°-39.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 69% (3/19 estimate: 68%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Paragon said: It would finally without a shadow of a doubt prove that such late season big snowfalls are just not possible anymore in heavily urbanized environments around here + climate change. Hogwash. A storm's path in this case has nothing to do with anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: NYC is in the process of doing something that it hasn't since the 1800's. No March 50 degree days between the 2nd and 25th. Models beginning to indicate NYC may see its first 50's since March 1st sometime next week. NYC no 50 degree days March 1st to March 25th 2018...1887...1885 How are we with the average freezing days now with so many in March and many more upcoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not very impressive against the records. 1887 had the March record of 28 days and 1885 with 24. The more unusual cool this month is mostly about the cooler high temperatures. So far NYC has 11 days this month. 2014 had the most recent highest number with 19. But where are we against the average for DJFM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Had to make a minor adjustment from yesterday regarding the March 19-20 1958 storm. There are only 8 or 9 snowfalls of 6 inches or greater after the spring equinox in New York City, depending on how you classify the March 19-20, 1958 storm. Also interesting to note here there have been 30 snowfalls 6 inches or greater in the month of March in New York City but only one between March 21 and March 31 but seven from April 1 through April 13. Just a curious weird anomaly. If it does happen on Wednesday it is more or less a one in twenty-year occurrence to happen in spring in New York City. The second thing to watch is if New York City, specifically Central Park, can receive three or more inches of snow on Wednesday they will surpass 30 inches on the season which would make it five years in a row of 30 or more inches of snow. This has happened only one other time in history back in the early 1880s. Considering that two of the last five meteorological winters have been among the top six warmest ever recorded that makes the snow streak even more extraordinary.6 inch Spring Snowfalls in NYC 1.....11.8.....March 19-20, 1958.....Spring began at 10 pm on March 20th that year, debatable if it belongs. 2.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915 3.....10.0.....April 13, 1875 4.......9.6.....April 6, 1982 5.......9.0.....March 22, 1967 6.......8.5.....April 1, 1924 7.......6.5.....April 5, 1944 8.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917 9.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Noon temps hovering in the low to mid 30's with dews still mostly in teens and low 20's. Definitely colder then the past few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Had twelve 50+ degree days here in Feb. and only one so far in March...maybe in about a week we'll hit it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Had to make a minor adjustment from yesterday regarding the March 19-20 1958 storm. There are only 8 or 9 snowfalls of 6 inches or greater after the spring equinox in New York City, depending on how you classify the March 19-20, 1958 storm. Also interesting to note here there have been 30 snowfalls 6 inches or greater in the month of March in New York City but only one between March 21 and March 31 but seven from April 1 through April 13. Just a curious weird anomaly. If it does happen on Wednesday it is more or less a one in twenty-year occurrence to happen in spring in New York City. The second thing to watch is if New York City, specifically Central Park, can receive three or more inches of snow on Wednesday they will surpass 30 inches on the season which would make it five years in a row of 30 or more inches of snow. This has happened only one other time in history back in the early 1880s. Considering that two of the last five meteorological winters have been among the top six warmest ever recorded that makes the snow streak even more extraordinary.6 inch Spring Snowfalls in NYC 1.....11.8.....March 19-20, 1958.....Spring began at 10 pm on March 20th that year, debatable if it belongs. 2.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915 3.....10.0.....April 13, 1875 4.......9.6.....April 6, 1982 5.......9.0.....March 22, 1967 6.......8.5.....April 1, 1924 7.......6.5.....April 5, 1944 8.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917 9.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938 Ive always thought early April was far more exciting for weather than late March and this backs it up. 7 to 1 is pretty overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20 hours ago, Morris said: Hogwash. A storm's path in this case has nothing to do with anything. It has nothing to do with a storm's path, but with the fact that no matter what path it takes it's not going to happen unless a specific set of conditions are present. You need historic arctic air and an intense storm- which is why the last time it happened was March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC is in the process of doing something that it hasn't since the 1800's. No March 50 degree days between the 2nd and 25th. Models beginning to indicate NYC may see its first 50's since March 1st sometime next week. NYC no 50 degree days March 1st to March 25th 2018...1887...1885 March 1 belongs in February I never figured out why February has only 28 days (besides leap years) when July and August have back to back 31 days. One of those days should be taken away and one extra day should be added to the end of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 A major nor’easter will take shape today bringing much of the region a substantial to possibly historic late-season snowfall. Select snowfall estimates: Boston: 5”-10” Bridgeport: 7-14” Farmingdale: 7”-14” Islip: 7”-14” Morristown: 8”-16” New York City: 7”-14” Newark: 8”-16” Poughkeepsie: 5”-10” White Plains: 8”-16” The three biggest snowfalls March 20 and later for four select cities are as follows: Bridgeport: 11.1”, March 22, 1967 9.3”, March 20-21, 1958 8.0”, April 1, 1924 Islip: 17.0”, March 21-22, 1967 16.0”, April 6-7, 1982 9.6”, April 8-10, 1996 New York City: 11.8”, March 20-21, 1958 10.2”, April 3-4, 1915 10.0”, April 12-14, 1875 Newark: 15.8”, April 3-4, 1915 14.8”, March 20-21, 1958 12.8”, April 6, 1982 New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/20 38.2° (3/20 estimate: 38.1°-38.4°; 2.5° below normal) 3/25 37.9°-38.8° (3/20 estimate: 37.9°-39.3°) 3/31 39.1°-41.1° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 70% (3/20 estimate: 68%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or still about 5degs. BN as mean 'marches' upward. Month to date is -2.5. Should be -3.2 by the 29th. Now it is 38 and breezy. Nothing showing, nothing falling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 New York City at 5.0 inches now for this storm as of the 4 PM update. This now puts them at 32 inches for the season which makes the fifth year in a row they've gone over 30 inches. That's the first time they've had five years in succession over 30 inches since the 1880s. That was done with two of those five meteorological winters being among the six warmest in history. That's what makes this more impressive to me than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 36 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: New York City at 5.0 inches now for this storm as of the 4 PM update. This now puts them at 32 inches for the season which makes the fifth year in a row they've gone over 30 inches. That's the first time they've had five years in succession over 30 inches since the 1880s. That was done with two of those five meteorological winters being among the six warmest in history. That's what makes this more impressive to me than anything. Snowfall really began to go into overdrive starting with the 02-03 winter. The only below normal seasons since then were 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12. I don't think anyone would have made this prediction following the 96-97 to 01-02 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 9:20 AM, Snow88 said: Mid April Are you still not seeing the warmup next week? I mentioned it a few days ago and I still think we're on track for a warmer pattern starting around tuesday next week. Maybe not a VERY warm pattern, but at least a more normal Spring pattern with high temps in the 50s. Thankfully it's happening in time for baseball season. Should see mid 50s for the Mets home opener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 6.7 inches now at the 7 PM Central Park reading. That makes this storm the 7th largest springtime snow in NYC. Let's keep climbing. 1.....11.8.....March 19-20, 1958 2.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915 3.....10.0.....April 13, 1875 4.......9.6.....April 6, 1982 5.......9.0.....March 22, 1967 6.......8.5.....April 1, 19247.......6.7.....March 21, 2018 8.......6.5.....April 5, 1944 9.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917 10.....6.4.....April 6-7, 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 6.7 inches now at the 7 PM Central Park reading. That makes this storm the 7th largest springtime snow in NYC. Let's keep climbing. 1.....11.8.....March 19-20, 1958 2.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915 3.....10.0.....April 13, 1875 4.......9.6.....April 6, 1982 5.......9.0.....March 22, 1967 6.......8.5.....April 1, 19247.......6.7.....March 21, 2018 8.......6.5.....April 5, 1944 9.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917 10.....6.4.....April 6-7, 1938 Very interesting how there are more Springtime snowfalls on that list in April than in March for New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Very interesting how there are more Springtime snowfalls on that list in April than in March for New York City. Someone reporting very low from butler on Mt holly page . Must be measuring pavement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 12 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Someone reporting very low from butler on Mt holly page . Must be measuring pavement Yep, it says "amateur radio" lol. Definitely must've been on pavement to be getting 3" less than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 20 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Very interesting how there are more Springtime snowfalls on that list in April than in March for New York City. When I made the list I noted how there is only one storm from March 21 through March 31 on the list yet 7 from April 1 to the 13th. It is a weird anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yep, it says "amateur radio" lol. Definitely must've been on pavement to be getting 3" less than us. I just measured 6.1 about 15 min ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 anyone have a link to a futurecast like simulated radar . (like the accuweather one they use on abc7 for example) . thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 First 15 pages are a fun read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: When I made the list I noted how there is only one storm from March 21 through March 31 on the list yet 7 from April 1 to the 13th. It is a weird anomaly. I agree. 1 hour ago, rgwp96 said: I just measured 6.1 about 15 min ago Just measured 6.5" at 10:10PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 20 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I agree. Just measured 6.5" at 10:10PM Nice band on us for the last 2 hours . May get 8-9 if it can hang for another hr or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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