bluewave Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Today's Euro weeklies do not support snowmans position. Pretty trough-y into April. Delayed spring look on the weeklies as MJO stalls out in the cool phases instead pushing into the warmer ones. Pretty funny that the MJO never missed an opportunity to go bonkers into the warm phases during the fall and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Delayed spring look on the weeklies as MJO stalls out in the cool phases instead pushing into the warmer ones. Pretty funny that the MJO never missed an opportunity to go bonkers into the warm phases during the fall and winter. Figures that would happen. I blame la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Figures that would happen. I blame la nina. Two years in a row when the February temperature departure will be bigger than March. Sets up the odd potential that February sees an 80 degree day but not March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Two years in a row when the February temperature departure will be bigger than March. Sets up the odd potential that February sees an 80 degree day but not March. That will give us more opportunities for snow during this month and maybe a fluke April snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This is one of your worst posts yet, congrats!!! Have you even looked at the latest suite? No you haven’t. The NAO is reloading. More snow threats on the way in the long range Total wishcast. It’s over come mid-month. See ya in 9 months. Say goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Total wishcast. It’s over come mid-month. See ya in 9 months. Say goodnight Right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Some decent coastal flooding this evening. The end of my block is under water again. Pretty amazing with out much wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Gfs has the storm next Monday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 hours ago, Paragon said: Don they're already talking about the Monday system being colder and stronger than this Wednesday's system and this Wednesday's sytem delivering about 6-8" for NYC and Long Island. That system has potential. It bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: That system has potential. It bears watching. I think so too, and looks like a more classic setup to deliver a widespread snow event. Hopefully little potential for an overly amped track because of the 50-50 low setting up. Could definitely be a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I think so too, and looks like a more classic setup to deliver a widespread snow event. Hopefully little potential for an overly amped track because of the 50-50 low setting up. Could definitely be a significant event. This could be the event that we have been waiting for since the presidents day storm in 2003- a widespread KU from the MAtl north..Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 hours ago, USCG RS said: This could be the event that we have been waiting for since the presidents day storm in 2003- a widespread KU from the MAtl north.. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk I thought Jan 2016 was that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Most of the guidance continues to suggest that New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see 6" or more snow. The GFS remains an outlier and is discounted. My early guess is that the City will pick up 6"-12" snow. Its northern and western suburbs will likely receive 8"-16" snow with some locally higher amounts. Nassau County should pick up 4”-8”, while Suffolk County will probably see 3”-6” snow. The last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell. Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday. However, there is disagreement among the guidance. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/5 42.1° (3/5 estimate: 41.8°-42.6°; 3.5° above normal) 3/10 39.2°-41.6° (3/5 estimate: 39.1°-44.5°) 3/15 38.0°-41.6° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 50% (3/5 estimate: 51%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 1 or 2 degrees BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Some decent coastal flooding this evening. The end of my block is under water again. Pretty amazing with out much wind Just goes to show the power of the swells from such a large and intense storm offshore. Freeport was able to make it to the low end major mark a few days ago. Very impressive images of breaking waves *inside* protected Bay of San Juan#PuertoRico. There aren’t many swell-direction options for the waves to make it into the bay like this. Via @CycloforumsPR from the PR Historic Building Drawings Society (on FB bit.ly/2oRVqpX) pic.twitter.com/VBpuTTOaQi 6:45 AM - 5 Mar 2018 Not every day you see huge, long-period swell off the Florida coast. 17 ft waves reported ~130 mi east of Cocoa Beach, FL, from the departing #noreaster some 1,500 mi away. #flwx pic.twitter.com/HVpzqxvb1I 7:37 AM - 5 Mar 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Just goes to show the power of the swells from such a large and intense storm offshore. Freeport was able to make it to the low end major mark a few days ago. Very impressive images of breaking waves *inside* protected Bay of San Juan#PuertoRico. There aren’t many swell-direction options for the waves to make it into the bay like this. Via @CycloforumsPR from the PR Historic Building Drawings Society (on FB bit.ly/2oRVqpX) pic.twitter.com/VBpuTTOaQi 6:45 AM - 5 Mar 2018 Not every day you see huge, long-period swell off the Florida coast. 17 ft waves reported ~130 mi east of Cocoa Beach, FL, from the departing #noreaster some 1,500 mi away. #flwx pic.twitter.com/HVpzqxvb1I 7:37 AM - 5 Mar 2018 More minor coastal flooding this morning. Absolutly amazing. I think this is the longest coastal flood event we have ever experienced. The end of my street was under water again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: More minor coastal flooding this morning. Absolutly amazing. I think this is the longest coastal flood event we have ever experienced It may be near the record for consecutive high tides with at least minor coastal flooding here. They actually had to come and help people leave a party right on the shore of the GSB Saturday night. That was the peak high tide. http://pix11.com/2018/03/04/partygoers-rescued-after-flooding-causes-evacuation-during-sweet-16/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Any updates on the storm next week? Or is that a non event now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, snow1 said: Any updates on the storm next week? Or is that a non event now? Can’t call it a non event this far out. It has major potential at this point. Let’s leave it at that and keep tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: It may be near the record for consecutive high tides with at least minor coastal flooding here. They actually had to come and help people leave a party right on the shore of the GSB Saturday night. That was the peak high tide. http://pix11.com/2018/03/04/partygoers-rescued-after-flooding-causes-evacuation-during-sweet-16/ Dec '92 was up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 40 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Dec '92 was up there Just had another round of minor tidal flooding here on the GSB. The circulation of this storm is gigantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 49 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Dec '92 was up there Dec 92 was by far the greatest noreaster this area has ever experienced. Only surpassed by Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Most of the guidance continues to suggest that New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see 6" or more snow. The GFS remains an outlier and is discounted. My early guess is that the City will pick up 6"-12" snow. Its northern and western suburbs will likely receive 8"-16" snow with some locally higher amounts. Nassau County should pick up 4”-8”, while Suffolk County will probably see 3”-6” snow. The last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell. Another system could bring the threat of additional precipitation to the region next Monday into Tuesday. However, there is disagreement among the guidance. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 3/5 42.1° (3/5 estimate: 41.8°-42.6°; 3.5° above normal) 3/10 39.2°-41.6° (3/5 estimate: 39.1°-44.5°) 3/15 38.0°-41.6° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 50% (3/5 estimate: 51%) That's why I say that to get a double digit snowstorm widespread across the area from March 1st onwards you need a triple phaser. March 1 2009 was close though and while it was double digits here it wasn't west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just had another round of minor tidal flooding here on the GSB. The circulation of this storm is gigantic. Still nautical here http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44137 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The Mon-Tues storm is going to be suppressed south. That one is for the mid-Atlantic. After that, it’s time to say goodbye to winter 17-18. A massive vortex forms over Alaska, ++EPO takes hold and that’s it. Fat lady singing. Torch develops come next weekend (3/17) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The Mon-Tues storm is going to be suppressed south. That one is for the mid-Atlantic. After that, it’s time to say goodbye to winter 17-18. A massive vortex forms over Alaska, ++EPO takes hold and that’s it. Fat lady singing. Torch develops come next weekend (3/17) Stop trolling It's annoying and stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Mon-Tues storm is going to be suppressed south. That one is for the mid-Atlantic. After that, it’s time to say goodbye to winter 17-18. A massive vortex forms over Alaska, ++EPO takes hold and that’s it. Fat lady singing. Torch develops come next weekend (3/17) Why are these repeat troll posts not being deleted? Is there ANY reason Snowman19 has not been banned at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, nzucker said: Why are these repeat troll posts not being deleted? Is there ANY reason Snowman19 has not been banned at this point? I’m not trolling. I’m giving my opinion. Just because my opinion isn’t cold and snow until April 1st, doesn’t equal a troll. That’s called censorship when you want a certain opinion silenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Mon-Tues storm is going to be suppressed south. That one is for the mid-Atlantic. After that, it’s time to say goodbye to winter 17-18. A massive vortex forms over Alaska, ++EPO takes hold and that’s it. Fat lady singing. Torch develops come next weekend (3/17) Glad that it looks like suppression right now because we all know where these storms end up in a few days (and we are a part of the Mid Atlantic.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, nzucker said: Why are these repeat troll posts not being deleted? Is there ANY reason Snowman19 has not been banned at this point? He actually posted a useful nugget right there- the fact that it's suppressed right now is VERY GOOD NEWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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