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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Not raining here right now.  Temp. 39 to 40.

Interesting note:  After 24 straight days of at least 80degs. highs (73 avg.) in Tampa Bay, they are expected to fail today onward.

 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There'll at least be two more coastals, ensembles are already all over them but I doubt they'll bring much snow towards the coast.

I'm sure Colts Neck will get snow:) Actually, there are some elevations there in Monmouth, though not big ones, like Holmdel Park, Telegraph Hill, the Highlands and so on. Don't know if that means anything.

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3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Terrible

Dont count on March to bring the goods if February was awful lol- it almost never happens.  But we're all right near average snowfall for the season so we really can't complain.  Remember- normal is a range not a single number- so even though you're 2.5" 'under average' you're really right near normal (+/- 2.5" of average)

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4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Snowgoose/red taggers- thoughts on mid week or end of week snow potential?

Another windy rain situation or more potential with EPO being negative?

2 more storms to watch before this pattern possibly ends

I think the coast will be favorable for snow with one of these storms.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

2 more storms to watch before this pattern possibly ends

I think the coast will be favorable for snow with one of these storms.

What days are we talking about?  Next Wednesday and then next weekend? Or is the one after that a week later?

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

2 more storms to watch before this pattern possibly ends

I think the coast will be favorable for snow with one of these storms.

We were so close today....when it started ripping early I thought it would deliver the goods, unfortunately it all went north, west, and south....not east this time though. It really was coming down and windy by noon but just didn't pile up. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We were so close today....when it started ripping early I thought it would deliver the goods, unfortunately it all went north, west, and south....not east this time though. It really was coming down and windy by noon but just didn't pile up. 

Yeah I was thinking wow, this changed over earlier than Feb 26, 2010 did but it really was nothing like that storm.  Funny how much of a difference there is between late February and early March lol.

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Dont count on March to bring the goods if February was awful lol- it almost never happens.  But we're all right near average snowfall for the season so we really can't complain.  Remember- normal is a range not a single number- so even though you're 2.5" 'under average' you're really right near normal (+/- 2.5" of average)

Yea my towns average range is 30 to 35 according to NWS. Sitting at 27.5

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2 hours ago, sferic said:

Please tell me we will have a cold artic air mass for that one

Take an elevator up to 500mb and yell that there. Right now the next one looks like another sloppy mess, maybe the blocking can help it move east a bit. It certainly won’t be an arctic air mass, it’ll be continental Canadian at best, and there’s a primary low that’ll be another factor to mess it up like this one. We’ll see what happens but as of now I’m not optimistic for us. Inland a different story 

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The power nor’easter that battered the region, brought heavy rains to coastal sections, and heavy snows inland is now a departing memory. In its wake, only gusty winds linger. Those winds will gradually diminish through the day.

With 11.9” snow, Albany’s seasonal snowfall is now 3.0” above normal after having been in a deficit position throughout the winter. Binghamton’s 12.5” snowfall cut into its large snowfall deficit. That city’s seasonal snowfall is now 4.7” below normal. Both cities could be above normal by the end of next week.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/2 45.5° (7.5° above normal)
3/5 40.9°-43.3° (3/2 estimate: 41.0°-45.8°)
3/10 38.6°-42.8° (3/2 estimate: 39.1°-44.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 51% (3/2 estimate: 53%)

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I am once again going with Upton in regards to the mid-week system since they did a good job with yesterday's especially in the immediate NYC/NJ zones - MT. Holly's forecast for yesterday's system was also accurate in my area until they put me in a WWA for 2 -3 inches late yesterday and I ended up with the trace amounts they had up until then.

from Upton:

THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,  
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT  
ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A  
CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT  
AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE  
IRONED OUT AND WITH THIS BEING A DAY 5/DAY 6 EVENT DID NOT MAKE TOO  
MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED  
WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE  
END OF THE WEEK.   

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Mt Holly was atrocious throughout CNJ SW NJ and SE PA less than 24 hours out 

3 to 5 inches fell into Monmouth and Ocean Counties - they had 0 

4 to 8 inches fell in SEPA - they had 0 

And 8 to 14 fell in far NWNJ - they had 6 -8 

These snow totals out did their worst case scenario map.

Upton looks great around NYC and LI , they didn't bite on the NAM or Euro there 

We never bit around NYC luckily we focused on the areas N and W , we called for a large east coast storm with beach erosion and high winds but a wrap around paste job into EPA NNJ and the HV. The HV ended up falling short but the rest of the forecast worked out.

esp for us here in Monmouth County  which I went 3 to 6 and TBH at 3 pm yesterday that didn't look to hot

 

There are 2 more coastals before this patterns fades away , will key in on them by tomorrow 

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Certainly one of the wettest patterns that we have seen from February into March. Islip has had nearly 10 inches of rain since February 1st. February is normally the driest month of the year around the area.

ISP precip since 2/1....9.56"

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The GEM and the GFS (navgem as well) show a snowstorm this week. 

Teleconnections support this idea with the following:

Negative NAO, AO, EPO. PNA trending more positive than yesterdays disappointment.

There will be a slightly colder airmass in place. 

Given the above, why is it a definite that the next storm will be all rain?

We all snowed yesterday, even though the NWS showed all rain. It the next storm is east of us and its a cooler airmass, why would it not snow and stick?

We just had a snowstorm 2 weeks ago with a worse airmass.

It COULD be rain if the storm tracks too close, however I do not think anyone should rule it out.

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