Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Best. Post. Ever. I would be triple bunned but agree that's what the GFS shows this run. Many runs to go, many solutions to evolve. Basic tenet stay wx aware this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 29 minutes ago, 512high said: Tip, with that said, will "inland" feel the winds? or just a coast thing? Inland I'm speaking 35-60 miles away Good question... prooobably not. Although ... even 40 mph wind gusts if occurring amidst 1/8 mi vis, 31 F blue sintering plaster of Paris is a major problem obviously to infrastructure/grid concerned. There may be proper studies on the matter but knee jerk guess? I'd say 30+mph with freezing wet snow of large mass is plenty headline worthy. A detail we can only envision from/for now but might become more clear in the spectrum of threats this thing looks to offer, but I gotta say... every sector may up in it to put it nicely and dealing with their own crisis and unaware. Like, no power impassible interior has no idea the back bay is helicoptering people out of waste deep deathly sea slush. Anyway, sorry to right the cryopocalypse prologue here but that's a violent solution on that GFS run and I'm looking at these g-damn tele's and going, what the hell are we doin'? Seriously, the PNA is rising from -6 to 0, in 9 days flat. That's 6 points under ten days! while this thing is happening, a -4 NAO is locking down the circulation medium. I dunno - that's probably the best signal from that method I've seen gong back 10 years. One of them anyway. Oh hell.. it's a matter now of what's going to wrong I suppose... Usually, something does to make it manageable. Oh yeah...wind. Yeah, it's really hard to generate those kind of winds inland. Particularly considering the viscosity of the BL. The best wind occurs from some form of convetive overturning and these synoptic scale eye-popper bombs ... they usually don't have that as impressive as they may seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Guess there is quite a spread in the forecast. Mega snowstorm or a big cold rain. Should be an interesting week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Guess there is quite a spread in the forecast. Mega snowstorm or a big cold rain. Should be an interesting week. More likely both but you should have less rain and more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Ryan’s channel saying heavy rain and wind..possible flooding for all CT. She said maybe a few snowflakes at the end. Guess she is hedging on the warm side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ryan’s channel saying heavy rain and wind..possible flooding for all CT. She said maybe a few snowflakes at the end. Guess she is hedging on the warm side. ok, whats wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ryan’s channel saying heavy rain and wind..possible flooding for all CT. She said maybe a few snowflakes at the end. Guess she is hedging on the warm side. Perfectly acceptable for now... These recent model runs are new trends supporting colder profiles. Obviously we've talked about that possibility ...for couple days at this point, but, prior to these runs and still quite frankly, cold liquid could transpire and still be a big tempest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ryan’s channel saying heavy rain and wind..possible flooding for all CT. She said maybe a few snowflakes at the end. Guess she is hedging on the warm side. With 5 days out and uncertainty she should be telling everyone 1-3ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ok, whats wrong with that? Who said anything is wrong??? i just stated what a local media outlet is calling for. Just like people from mass say what Pete B, or Harvey is calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: With 5 days out and uncertainty she should be telling everyone 1-3ft. Start there and then go higher if need be after the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ryan’s channel saying heavy rain and wind..possible flooding for all CT. She said maybe a few snowflakes at the end. Guess she is hedging on the warm side. Our 925s are so torched on the GFS we don't get them cold enough til after 00z Friday. Not saying I buy it but I'm sure that's what she is using along with the Euro which although colder aloft had BL issues. 2m temps obviously are one of the harder variables for the models to predict correctly even at a much shorter lead time so I'll take some solace in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: With 5 days out and uncertainty she should be telling everyone 1-3ft. We need time to get the bread and milk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Who said anything is wrong??? i just stated what a local media outlet is calling for. Just like people from mass say what Pete B is calling for. I believe the Pete B is all tongue in cheek after the one debacle he made years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I have no problem going mainly rain in Hartford at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: Our 925s are so torched on the GFS we don't get them cold enough til after 00z Friday. Not saying I buy it but I'm sure that's what she is using along with the Euro which although colder aloft had BL issues. 2m temps obviously are one of the harder variables for the models to predict correctly even at a much shorter lead time so I'll take some solace in that. See Will's post on those soundings. Bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: See Will's post on those soundings. Bogus. Well yeah, he's speaking about the surface at ORH. They'll have better rates/lift if something like the current solutions verfies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 At this point the only thing you need to do as a public met is to tell everyone there could be a high impact storm (esp on the coast) this Friday and that details will become more clear in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I believe the Pete B is all tongue in cheek after the one debacle he made years ago. I’m not from Mass so not familiar with him...but many on here think he is not very good from the posts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m not from Mass so not familiar with him...but many on here think he is not very good from the posts here. I don't really care for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ryan’s channel saying heavy rain and wind..possible flooding for all CT. She said maybe a few snowflakes at the end. Guess she is hedging on the warm side. Lol. She is brutal. Toss her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: At this point the only thing you need to do as a public met is to tell everyone there could be a high impact storm (esp on the coast) this Friday and that details will become more clear in a couple days. Oh I agree. I was just saying that she shows a complete rain storm as of now fir all CT. Of course she said we have to monitor it going forward and all that.. but did say it’s looking like mainly a rain event at the moment. Not saying what she said is wrong or right ..just posted for discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. She is brutal. Toss her Toss her lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. She is brutal. Toss her Lol...this made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. She is brutal. Toss her Easy on the eyes, seems pretty sharp usually too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 heh... did he just say 'toss her' ... omg.. haha... like, in this day and age of harassment stuff - Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmd887 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 What timeframe on Thursday are they expecting this rain and wind to move into Eastern Massachusetts? The local meteorologists are a little clueless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I believe the Pete B is all tongue in cheek after the one debacle he made years ago. No, his forecasts have been proven in some past storms to have been putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: No, his forecasts have been proven in some past storms to have been putrid. That is an understatement, he blew perhaps the two biggest snowstorms in Cape Cod history, the JAN 2005 Blizzard and the Jan 2015 Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 He's biased warm alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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