March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

[jbenedet]

Shocking, 18z GFS with much deeper system, and similar track as 12z but much colder and snowier with a good run for the queens.

Sub 980 we’re in business in NNE and much of CNE. Get it sub 970 and maybe we can get most of SNE into the snow.

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Shocking, 18z GFS with much deeper system, and similar track as 12z but much colder and snowier with a good run for the queens.

Sub 980 we’re in business in NNE and much of CNE. Get it sub 970 and maybe we can get most of SNE into the snow.

gfs was not bad north of the pike trending better

[wxeyeNH]

Storm looking better for CNE but what are you all seeing that Im missing for the big snow totals out towards Worcester.  Lots of mid to upper 30's through the storm.  Is it the dynamics that will bring down the cold air down?  Here is the clown map for the GFS.  Seems to keep the big totals further NW.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snow maps are so silly 

[jbenedet]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

gfs was not bad north of the pike trending better

Yea. Most of SNE (south of the pike) just needs a nuke and that’s not asking much with this setup and teleconnections.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Storm looking better for CNE but what are you all seeing that Im missing for the big snow totals out towards Worcester.  Lots of mid to upper 30's through the storm.  Is it the dynamics that will bring down the cold air down?  Here is the clown map for the GFS.  Seems to keep the big totals further NW.

Just above the BL is COLD. Dynamic cooling is the name of the game with this.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS keeps ORH at like 37 despite 900-925 below 0C. Tossed. Tossed as far as you can throw it. Snow algorithms are useless when the model does that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the lower elevations are good back to the ORH hills and north of the pike...points south and west of the ORH hills maybe be dicey.

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS keeps ORH at like 37 despite 900-925 below 0C. Tossed. Tossed as far as you can throw it. Snow algorithms are useless when the model does that. 

Enough evidence for Pete B to forecast mostly rain and maybe a skim coating as the thing departs.  Ala March 2013. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS keeps ORH at like 37 despite 900-925 below 0C. Tossed. Tossed as far as you can throw it. Snow algorithms are useless when the model does that. 

Even with those heinous thermals, I scrore a 10"-spot.

I'll raise that by x2.

[ORH_wxman]

Look at the lowest 50mb on GFS sounding...not saturated all of the sudden at ORH on a 030 wind direction during peak lift. 

What a useless model sometimes, lol. 

 

[CoastalWx]

18z gfs is basically hurricane force on h coast:

[moneypitmike]

21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

MPM will undoubtedly bemoan the GFS' qpf distribution.  1" LE for him 3" for you.   

I doubt it.  I’m just hoping to find a way back to pwm.  OT, they’re leaving empty seats on my plane so we won’t have to stop for refueling.  Never heard that one before.....maybe they should get us a bigger plane.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Look at the lowest 50mb on GFS sounding...not saturated all of the sudden at ORH on a 030 wind direction during peak lift. 

What a useless model sometimes, lol. 

 

I said that earlier. How the hell is that possible lol. Tossed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

gfs was not bad north of the pike trending better

We are already in the game....I don't care what the minimum central pressure is.

[78Blizzard]

17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Shocking, 18z GFS with much deeper system, and similar track as 12z but much colder and snowier with a good run for the queens.

Sub 980 we’re in business in NNE and much of CNE. Get it sub 970 and maybe we can get most of SNE into the snow.

Some of the EPS members have sub 970, and one as low as 958.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That was a great look for the GFS all biases given.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd love to be in New Ipswich, NH for this one.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd love to be in New Ipswich, NH for this one.

Was thinking same.

[CoastalWx]

Although I'll sacrifice snow if it means 50kt paste.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Although I'll sacrifice snow if it means 50kt paste.

Don't need, nor expect to jackpot here....give me 15-20 of paste, and I'll call it a season.....more threats to withstanding.

[40/70 Benchmark]

These late season events that began as a gentle rain, then have the switch flipped to savage paste are my favorites......right out of the 12/92, 3-4/97 playbook.

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These late season events that began as a gentle rain, then have the switch flipped to savage paste are my favorites......right out of the 12/92, 3-4/97 playbook.

Blog tonight?

[Typhoon Tip]

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

This post is #thefappening.

[512high]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

Tip, with that said, will "inland" feel the winds? or just a coast thing? Inland I'm speaking 35-60 miles away

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

I would agree john.   

[dmd887]

Hello All-

Models showing a more northerly jog. Bad timing as I’m flying out of Boston Thursday night for travel. Should I be concerned about a cancellation and try to move this flight or do you think I will still be ok Thursday night? Thanks 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...wow.

18z GFS is National Gardian.

Just look at the 850 mb low and thermal profile and that's your rain/snow line, period.   ..relative to this run.  Nothing else you've post has any value, at all... none.  stop.

30 to 40" ..I'd give >90th percentile of mass in frozen form NW of ~ Plymouth on that run. 

In fact, you can see it Earth weeping snow at 850 mb the way the 0C is concavely dented from Cape Cod Bay to eastern LI... that's the frozen line hammering to the surface. 

Anything below that is entirely ignorable given to the governing/overbearing synoptic cue/forcing, to mention any in the other countless patently obvious parameters. where does one begin laughing at that 1300' thickness ... just wow.

I'd also like to add that it is not that uncommon for bigger system to take on residence in the models at extended lead suggestion if not coherency. We often discussed this in advanced FAST and it has to do with multiple scales/teleconnectors acting as much as a physical drive as the impulse(s) its self - if more of them are involved, the more "immovable" the signal is in the atmosphere and therefore easier for the models to bear down upon. 

I think we can handle the snow... even at upper tier results... but wind and tide really needs to be covered... Some individual EPS members ...enough in fact to raise a brow, are in the 965 mb range, and given to the slow movement and larger circumvallate of cyclonic presentation this would have it could likely shame the Jan bomb for what it can do to the sea surface and ultimately the coast.  It's never too early to start raising awareness... not fear. Not over dramatization or histrionics.  Just awareness..

Best. Post. Ever.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Blog tonight?

Doubt it...updated last night. I'll wait til we get closer and get more detailed....first guess Tues?