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Typhoon Tip

March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

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Just now, dryslot said:

Quite a cluster of members well to the NW of the mean as expected over MA/CT, Looks like we are losing the ones that were well SE

Yeah, many members just northwest of mean. And there are some intense 960s-970s huggers in there.

All members that are >990mb are way southeast and probably skewing the mean. This was true on previous runs as well. 

Though as you mentioned, our shortwave hasn't been sampled yet. We still could be in for some big guidance swings in the days ahead once this energy is onstage.

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a lot of precip for a mean..no?

Seems like some dryslot issues for us on the OP, especially south of us (noticed some panels with almost no precip. along the shoreline). Low is tucked too close I think. If it goes a bit farther south we'll have better rates and thus better dynamic cooling.

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3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

The euro ensembles are out of this world. North and amped. 3.0" QPF at BOS. 2" for majority of SNE. Impressive. 

EPS is definitely up there.  Way up in Maine.

IMG_8638.thumb.PNG.4216477be72046667d056221fe4dded3.PNG

 

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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just from a dynamics standpoint, It looks to do a top down cool down quite rapidly as the the heavier rates take hold over areas that start out really marginal.

925 temps go from 6C to 0C between hr 117 and hr 120 in my hood.

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

925 temps go from 6C to 0C between hr 117 and hr 120 in my hood.

Yup, That would flip a few verbatim over pretty quickly.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think you need to be elevated if the op is right. 

Yeah, That's going to get snow to the coast fairly quickly.

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2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I meant favored for jackpot but this could easily trend to be historic for us.

 

It’s close to that now.   Just a ton of snow post 12z Friday from the euro family.

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Beyond the dynamically driven cooling, I will be surprised if the modeling doesn't continue tickling cooler as we get closer in. That seems to be a common theme this winter. But man, what a bomb on the Euro. 

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One of you fine gentleman post the 12z, 18z, and 00z member output? Thanks in advance.

 To clarify, I meant the individual members output,  to see the clustering. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Why?

Why am I not sold on this coming up as far as CNE?  I just look at the model trends.  Last night's 0Z Euro went south but then at 12Z came back north.  The 06Z GFS got the good stuff to about me but then the 12Z went south again.  So until I see a couple of runs on these models hold steadfast in getting the QPF to C/NNE I am not totally invested.  Looks good for a big storm of some kind down there but much odds decrease as you head up my way.

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