correnjim1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Weird ranges the zero for boston is spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 @ORH_wxman Any relationship between this storm and Feb 8 2013? (2m temps aside...) I wonder if a last minute jump northeast is possible with this similar to what happened then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: the zero for boston is spot on Tblizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Th Feb 13 event was much different at H5. The key was a piece of s/w energy that phased into it from NY and helped that thing go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 The blended last 24 to 36 hours worth of guidance et al, really hasn't changed for me. This is a dramatic ..albeit fairly classic Nor'easter in form. However extreme its sensible impacts, notwithstanding. Ptype: During the first 1/2 to perhaps 2/3rds of the event, I suspect it rains, heavily much of the time. My experience with these types of initially marginal evolutions (1992 and your 1997's ..which have been pretty routine analogs to whatever degree throughout this run up) is that in the nearer hours post closure of the mid level centers (at their standard sigma intervals) the rain snow line collapses SE. Most probably that is the UVM spike that occurs when those physical processes take place, that tips the column in favor of cold, BUT, that gets a bit more focused along the transition for these sorts of scenarios. The difference here is that we are (marginal + 1); in other words, a tick above marginal. But that is still quite close and dynamic systems doing these closures will tend to come along with "unintended consequences," moreover, those that are usually not well foreseen. If we were say even 2.5 C above critical at those respective thickness intervals, I'd be happy to buy a canoe and rejoice in the fact that we rarely lose power over mere 40 mph wind gust and heavy rain in the interior. Which frankly... no one asked but I'm okay with that anyway... However, if marginal +1 is overcome and it flips, I wanna appreciate for a moment that the sky scape in the period would be really fascinating to see, with typical undulatory motion? That sort of vague impression of nebular roiling by over chilly wind gust ... that's snow off the deck not making it down initially. Then cat-paws start being actual parachutes and your in.. As far as impact, it will come down to three scenarios: one, translucent slush ... mainly non-consequential; two, a huge deposition of glop that probably doesn't really even cling to the trees and power lines, or even streets too well, because it's just too rich with liquid water; three, ...really bring the hammer through any warm layers and we end up choking in perfection for how to create monster QPF in a snowing column. Obviously, any one of these three scenarios has different sensible impact. For #one, probably enters a significant fresh water flood threat where that sets up.. The middle range option is also got that ... but, that flood concern therein flips over to a grid concerns with power outages if this biases colder .. I am not sure how confident one can really be in any one of these three scenarios, hence ...'marginality.' Wind: This is probably being under sold a little? I haven't heard a lot of discourse ... it seems the focus has been in order of public interest: snow, CF ... somewhere out here, wind. But, given the deep CCB jet that's depicted, combining height falls lends to a bit of instability and perhaps momentum transerfering. This also enter a grid concern somewhat, certainly as we look at eastern zones. I see that BOX has wind notifications flying - certainly agreed. Multi-facets event ... coastal flood concerns are high and have been getting better coverage, which I am glad. Because for the moment anyway, this is the lead head-line offence that this beast appears poised to unleash. Others have done fine to describe the multi-cycle, amplifying effects due to duration, and I don't think this can be overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: @ORH_wxman Any relationship between this storm and Feb 8 2013? (2m temps aside...) I wonder if a last minute jump northeast is possible with this similar to what happened then... Not really...maybe some mild similarities in that it had a vort out ahead of the main energy diving in...but the difference is this one does the full capture/phase whereas Feb 2013 didn't achieve that until northeast of us when ti was SW of Nova Scotia. You can loop it here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0208.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9z SREFs quite a bit down on snow for the eastern folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Aren't last days north moves usually from pumping of ridge in front of strong stream? Isn't this s stream a terd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RPM is way north of the 09z run through 21 hours...wonder if it is because it isn't focusing the low center on convection to the southeast...it had a lot more convection to the southeast on the 09z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro wasn't the only model doing this either. There's a chance we see a good bump if we can get rid of that. Good time to match up mid levels and forcing and sort of ignore the convoluted surface development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Honestly, if you plot the 700 mb heights, the Euro is farther north and deeper than the GFS (which has the QPF farther north). That still argues for a blend of the two to me. The Euro does sink south faster than both American models though, by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Good time to match up mid levels and forcing and sort of ignore the convoluted surface development. So where does that put our low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Honestly, if you plot the 700 mb heights, the Euro is farther north and deeper than the GFS (which has the QPF farther north). That still argues for a blend of the two to me. The Euro does sink south faster than both American models though, by 00z. I think that's the big thing. It begins to really get pulled south. I wonder if part of it is because of that modeled meso low. Almost slings back west and causes a Fuji dance and whips it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 nam looks good, much colder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM is pretty zonked at 21 hours...its definitely colder than 06z too. I think this will probably be a good solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It still does that warm tongue at 850, but a bit more nrly drain 950 and lower it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It still does that warm tongue at 850, but a bit more nrly drain 950 and lower it seems. Yeah its close to IP/ZR for a time in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Definitely a stronger H5 low compared to 6z. Not sure what that means after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is pretty zonked at 21 hours...its definitely colder than 06z too. I think this will probably be a good solution Heavy flashing over around hour 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Snowing in west CT by hour 26 as the 850 begins collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It still does that warm tongue at 850, but a bit more nrly drain 950 and lower it seems. Yeah we're prob not avoiding it...but it's still colder than 06z at least...and the better ULL could make for a better final 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a stronger H5 low compared to 6z. Not sure what that means after 00z. nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is pretty zonked at 21 hours...its definitely colder than 06z too. I think this will probably be a good solution Lol ok here we go again...can't wait to see how this actually turns out?? Nam gonna go nuts again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 flips mid morning in wct and its bananas all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, correnjim1 said: nothing Tblizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Do Berkshires remain snow on this 12z nam run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wow ...33 hours is flipping to nuking paste....a little earlier than 06z run...and that is absolutely terrifying coastal tide situation for E MA....that is awful there. Prob hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: flips mid morning in wct and its bananas all around. We flirt with the r/s line the entire time but I think we take this and hope the heavy precip cools us enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That earlier pic reminds me of a few years ago where down at the house in Schenectady we got maybe 4 inches of slush and a lot of rain, 1000 feet up in western Schenectady county they got whacked. I remember one tree stump with a mushroom cap on it about five times wider than the tree it came so fast and big flakes up there. They had to get 2 1/2 feet easy. It was edging on spring time, riding my bike up there was a hoot between 8 foot banks, in the state forest people are cross county skiing and I'm riding my bicycle along next to them on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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