40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I'd pay to see the Euro whiff again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GGEM is def a different evolution...pretty late close off but also dramatic height falls to the east quickly...so it keeps SNE pretty cold in the midlevels. The storm hugs pretty close but its a lot colder than the GFS. Another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Really interesting to see the whole thing come north yet I get very little qpf because of the Whites just to my NE. Amazing dry slot in the Central NH area. Not sure I would worry about that. Probably overdone as we've noticed for my area in SWFEs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: You're throwingWednesdayowel way to early with this wacky s ystem. I have my doubts too but also think we have a shot at getting nailed. He quit yesterday, he quit today and he will quit Wednesday but he is in ktan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I still like the Feb25 12z euro run as best guess—bombs 50 miles south of MTK LI and then tracks slowly ESE from there, while gradually intensifying. Todays 0z ICON run is very similar to that run also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The nice thing is... if the ECMWF comes about halfway toward the GFS it's a pretty epic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll maintain to the bitter end that this isn't tracking along the south coast with that block there. Sue me. Agree. I don't see this getting north of Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The funny thing is the modeling has not done anything any of us thought it might...every run is a different solution entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 This isn't too far off from being a big event. I'm encouraged by that, myself. OTOH, the 00z trends (so far) are a little disconcerting. Especially, being that I suspect we have better sampling with these runs. All that said, it's still too early to hang our weenies...as the 12z runs tomorrow can just as easily cause it to spring back to its natural, vertical position. So, grab your weenie, hold on, and try to enjoy the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'll take it. I'm heading to Toronto tomorrow for 3 days. At least I'd get to see some of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I like how gfs still flips us to snow fri eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: The funny thing is the modeling has not done anything any of us thought it might...every run is a different solution entirely. Yea, the sequence of solutions has absolutely undressed me like Kev's bf on prom night...."bad little schoolboy".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Looking at the french sideways 0z Ukie maps it looks like it would be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I like how gfs still flips us to snow fri eve Almost every run does....which is a good sign, because a pretty good firehose has set up by that point....that's where QPF could be sneaky underdone in E MA and the terrain enhanced spots. Hard to say that when it's spitting out 4 inches qpf total, but the early stuff with the fronto could be a bit overdone too. But honestly, if we can just get the whole thing a bit less amped in the early stages, it could be epic....as Ryan already pointed out, how about a 50/50 Euro compromise and call it a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Almost every run does....which is a good sign, because a pretty good firehose has set up by that point....that's where QPF could be sneaky underdone in E MA and the terrain enhanced spots. Hard to say that when it's spitting out 4 inches qpf total, but the early stuff with the fronto could be a bit overdone too. But honestly, if we can just get the whole thing a bit less amped in the early stages, it could be epic....as Ryan already pointed out, how about a 50/50 Euro compromise and call it a day? GGEM is a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looking at the french sideways 0z Ukie maps it looks like it would be a big hit. For you, or "us"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Man, Harv is pessimistic. Disagree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For you, or "us"? Looks like us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, Harv is pessimistic. Disagree with him. Fwiw so is fisher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GGEM is a bomb Warm at the surface though. I'll take the under on those 2m temps. with a low bombing in the position it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, Harv is pessimistic. Disagree with him. What does he say/reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, Harv is pessimistic. Disagree with him. How often is he that wrong? Very rarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: How often is he that wrong? Very rarely. Toss Em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ray and Bastardi against the world. Although Ryan was just on and he said it Ike it is..which is its just too early to tell with such a low confidence forecast at the moment...nice job by him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: How often is he that wrong? Very rarely. We'll see....I'm not blinking, lets see if he does hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What does he say/reasoning Minimal snow impact...ending as brief period, possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Harvey does seem to think that low tracks pretty tight to the coast. Not impressed with the snowfall rates/amounts even in central mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ray and Bastardi against the world. Although Ryan was just on and he said it Ike it is..which is its just too early to tell with such a low confidence forecast at the moment...nice job by him. Yeah tough one to communicate. I said it was a tough forecast but, "i don't like the look of it" and "could easily turn into a major storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Warm at the surface though. I'll take the under on those 2m temps. with a low bombing in the position it shows. 520 heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah tough one to communicate. I said it was a tough forecast but, "i don't like the look of it" and "could easily turn into a major storm" Smart play imo....well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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