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March 2018 Model Discussion


WeatherFeen2000

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9 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

With a stale airmass, we're going to need this storm to hit at night or go full phase if we want widespread double digit numbers. Otherwise everyone on this forum will be wish casting  where the CCB death band sets up.

The UKMET deepens this 20 BM in 12 while passing our latitude 

This will CCB

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59 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Complete banter...no power since Wednesday at 3:30. 16" dumped on my house. Driveway is a disaster. What the RGEM just spit out, get's me excited and at the same time makes me sad, with the prospect of more wet snow on already weak trees and telephone poles.

What's your JCP&L status?

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12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

With a stale airmass, we're going to need this storm to hit at night or go full phase if we want widespread double digit numbers. Otherwise everyone on this forum will be wish casting  where the CCB death band sets up.

Agreed. This has SECS written all over it. I like the 4-8” call with a small chance of 8-12” for localized areas if everything goes right. Just speculation as of now, I think this has a great chance of producing a moderate snowfall for the I-95 corridor. 

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 092015
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
315 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes
through Saturday. An Atlantic low may impact the area during
the beginning of next week. A warming trend is then possible for
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Stacked low settles across the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Fast
moving vort pivots around the base of the trough overnight. A
few snow showers or flurries linger into the evening, but drier
air moves in as the night progresses, and any leftover lift
ends.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast, as westerly flow
persists. Lows will range from the lower 30s to the middle 20s per
model and mos blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low remains stationary over the Canadian Maritimes through
Saturday before moving east at night. Sfc high pressure builds to
the north of downstream midwest trough.

Dry weather continues, with gusty westerly flow turning NW in time.

Temperatures rise to the lower to middle 40s during the day, and
fall into the 20s or lower 30s at night under partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The primary focus of the Long Term is the potential for another deep
low to impact the area during the beginning of next week.

Fair wx on Sun with the nbm used.

The 12z model runs show a large amount of variability with the
storm. However, they all indicate low pres will develop off the
Carolina Coast Sun ngt into early Mon. From there, the storm will
eventually deepen over the Atlc as an h5 low drops out of Canada.

The ECMWF remains the guidance of choice for the evolution of the
sys, with the basic track of the main sfc low supported by the GEM
and GFS. The low is progged by the ECMWF to be down to 983mb about
215 miles e of the benchmark 12z Tue. So this looks to be another
big one with just the track in question.

The fcst track consensus is still too far e to provide a major
impact to the cwa. However, it would not be surprising based on
climo for the modeling and eventual track to trend wwd. As a result,
pops were unchanged for Mon, and increased slightly to at least 30
percent for Tue.

The large upr low spinning over the area on Wed would be conducive
to the development of snow shwrs, so chances were added into the
fcst.

Warm 16c h85 air over the cntrl plains begins to spread ewd and
modify on Thu. This change in the pattern should bring a warming
trend into next weekend.
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24 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The UKMET deepens this 20 BM in 12 while passing our latitude 

This will CCB

I said i didn't like this threat this morning and then the models came hundreds of miles west lol.  I totally snowmaned this storm. 

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Selfish question from a backyard point-of-view: What is NNJ looking at for this? I'm asking because I lost in the ballpark of $150 in groceries in the past week from repeated power outages. I could go without an additional foot of snow. I'm also starting to worry about flooding if we a lot of snow this late in the season.

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1 minute ago, North and West said:

Selfish question from a backyard point-of-view: What is NNJ looking at for this? I'm asking because I lost in the ballpark of $150 in groceries in the past week from repeated power outages. I could go without an additional foot of snow. I'm also starting to worry about flooding if we a lot of snow this late in the season.

As of now, 3-6” is likely. It’s too early to call though. By tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea. 

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Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

As of now, 3-6” is likely. It’s too early to call though. By tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea. 

Thanks. In addition to that, most schools (including those of my children) have been out since Wednesday. I hope they're back Monday. 

They're going to start taking away Spring Break; they might get close to 1993-1994 when we went to school on Saturday to make up the days.

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37 minutes ago, North and West said:

Thanks. In addition to that, most schools (including those of my children) have been out since Wednesday. I hope they're back Monday. 

They're going to start taking away Spring Break; they might get close to 1993-1994 when we went to school on Saturday to make up the days.

By law they can't go beyond JUne 30th IIRC so you will make up days however, if there are extenuating circumstances beyond reason, sometimes days are not made up if there are none left after all breaks have been given up. This has nothing to do with kids' education it is strictly a matter of funding. When OK decided they didn't want to pay anymore for schools they just told some districts well go to a 4 day week. Teachers will have an extra day to get part time work. How considerate. We have an issue here with one school shut for a week for asbestos and then this weather. And we only had 4 inches and it caused chaos. So far we have been spared the worst but are now up to around 32  ins for the year and even small snowfalls are gonna cause more closures. Small being 4-8 these days....

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53 minutes ago, Doorman said:

OPC 72hr  surface cast

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

A_72hrsfc.thumb.gif.e115d0bac44fad370be101f90b34e08a.gif

looks like this may be a nail biter ...down to the wire for the metro

978mb prog at 40N  

lets see if the new data ingest

 on the overnight shift, come west yet again

I think that vibe is solid !!!! 

 

 

 

 

I think the US models see it 12z tomorrow 

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3 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

PB as someone else said I give you props for being on this one for a while but the overnight guidance sure doesn't  look favorable. Big change from yesterdays favorable shifts,,,,,I guess we wait n see what the morning guidance says .

The UKMET and RGEM continue to show this and the 6z GEFS brings the .5 line very close to the coast 

Again this one favors the coast , with a -EPO , these like to follow run on the coastal front and find their way to the BM

In the past they come W very late , so we will see.

The EPS has 2 clusters one up towards 70 and the other is just weak and OTS

But weak and OTS doesn't match the ridge axis thru Boise 

My idea only has small support but then again I don't forecast using model to model variance 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The UKMET and RGEM continue to show this and the 6z GEFS brings the .5 line very close to the coast 

Again this one favors the coast , with a -EPO , these like to follow run on the coastal front and find their way to the BM

In the past they come W very late , so we will see.

The EPS has 2 clusters one up towards 70 and the other is just weak and OTS

But weak and OTS doesn't match the ridge axis thru Boise 

My idea only has small support but then again I don't forecast using model to model variance 

 

 

Thank you for the reply PB. There is much I need to learn about the science and the dynamics of this one are just ridiculous . So when even long time Mets ( I am talking about EVERYONE in general not you ) are having trouble figuring things out it gives me hope lol. Lets see what todays models and guidance show.

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