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Ji

Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Wouldn't it make sense that these storms earlier in the blocking pattern would be slow moving rainstorms, even with a decent track? IIRC, the storm a week before the (Great) Blizzard of 2016 had a good track, but was all rain regardless. Even the Blizzard of 2016 was progged as a mix mess/rain over a week out, despite having the setup perfect. If history is to be believed, then it would make sense that our best shot would be before the blocking degrades, as was the case in Jan 2016, right?

Right assuming the block actually holds and doesn’t morph into some zombie high presssure ridge.  Who knows..we are almost out of tricks anyway.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Right assuming the block actually holds and doesn’t morph into some zombie high presssure ridge.  Who knows..we are almost out of tricks anyway ways to not get snow

FYP

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

FYP

Thanks.  That’s what I meant.  I’m going to keep an open mind until the block sets up and we see where it takes us.  Might be the last stretch to track a fail.  I do love to track except maybe this year....so much promise back around 8-9 Dec...yeesh

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thanks.  That’s what I meant.  I’m going to keep an open mind until the block sets up and we see where it takes us.  Might be the last stretch to track a fail.  I do love to track except maybe this year....so much promise back around 8-9 Dec...yeesh

No kidding. That week after with the 2 "over performing" events as well. I remember the talk of "it just wants to snow" during that time. 

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39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is a disaster. Next

I  think you're joking. There is potential next week if the closed upper low ends up a couple hundred miles south. At hr.198 it is sitting over Nj and the surface low is blocked and sits off the coast for a few days.

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6 minutes ago, wkd said:

I  think you're joking. There is potential next week if the closed upper low ends up a couple hundred miles south. At hr.198 it is sitting over Nj and the surface low is blocked and sits off the coast for a few days.

I think one of the reasons that we are getting responses like this today, is that some were probably expecting some tangible opportunities, trends up in snowfall, and cold to start showing up by now. Models are still going all over the place outside of about 120hrs. We really want to see models start to double down on blocking/snow/cold from here on out. Given it's March, any small shift away from this look is probably some sort of small disaster and a couple of small shifts would equal a major disaster. 

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Did anyone see the EPS control run? Runs that day 8 low to our south and east. Smokes New Jersey and E Pa and northward. See 3+ feet S NE. Better press of cold air initially and our region would have gotten into part of that.

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll take e25 on the Eps and call it a winter . Snows for a couple days ...crushes west of 95.

Would be acceptable. :)

Not impressed with most of the other members though. 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Did anyone see the EPS control run? Runs that day 8 low to our south and east. Smokes New Jersey and E Pa and northward. See 3+ feet S NE. Better press of cold air initially and our region would have gotten into part of that.

@showmethesnowWhat do you think of that solution off the record?

Refresh my mind, what are the advantages of viewing the control run in terms of model outcomes?

Thanks

 

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2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Delaware misses out on this event?

If you are talking the Control, The northern tip manages to sneak into the 2-3 inch line while the rest of Delaware is trace to an inch or so.

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Did anyone see the EPS control run? Runs that day 8 low to our south and east. Smokes New Jersey and E Pa and northward. See 3+ feet S NE. Better press of cold air initially and our region would have gotten into part of that.

its funny. As soon as the euro run ended...i told HM on twitter that he euro control would save us before it even came out

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

@showmethesnowWhat do you think of that solution off the record?

Refresh my mind, what are the advantages of viewing the control run in terms of model outcomes?

Thanks

 

Control is just a lower resolution version of the Op run. So it has had none of its parameters disturbed that you see with the other ensemble members. 

As far as its solution? This is exactly what we would want to see. Give this track and evolution and pray that the cold presses in a little better and most of this forum would be some happy campers. That said, I trust it as much as the op runs being thrown out at this point. Which isn't much.

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Control is just a lower resolution version of the Op run. So it has had none of its parameters disturbed that you see with the other ensemble members. 

As far as its solution? This is exactly what we would want to see. Give this track and evolution and pray that the cold presses in a little better and most of this forum would be some happy campers. That said, I trust it as much as the op runs being thrown out at this point. Which isn't much.

Thank you

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Control is just a lower resolution version of the Op run. So it has had none of its parameters disturbed that you see with the other ensemble members. 

As far as its solution? This is exactly what we would want to see. Give this track and evolution and pray that the cold presses in a little better and most of this forum would be some happy campers. That said, I trust it as much as the op runs being thrown out at this point. Which isn't much.

Just have the maps on TT but isn't the EURO looking  and trending much better than at 0z?

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21 minutes ago, frd said:

Thank you

Just thought I would add. With the control's solution and shave a couple/few degrees off the solution and what we would have is a storm that would probably rival the top 10, if not the top 5 storms of all times from DC up to NE. 

eta: I stand corrected. It isn't the cold that kills us, its the lack of precip. The precip slides all around around our region as the low tracks to our south, up the coast and then retrogrades back down the coast. That would be the ultimate middle finger to us this winter.

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10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Just have the maps on TT but isn't the EURO looking  and trending much better than at 0z?

For day 8? Looks as if the surface slipped somewhat taking the low further north. As far as the 500's? Somewhat different look but I would side with that slipping somewhat as well.

eta: Looking at the rest of the run I think I liked the 00Z run a little better as well. But this is all a quick glance because i am in the middle of something else right this second so maybe I  am off base somewhat.

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just thought I would add. With the control's solution and shave a couple/few degrees off the solution and what we would have is a storm that would probably rival the top 10, if not the top 5 storms of all times from DC up to NE. 

You are correct and HM just posted its not really about the details yet.  

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

You are correct and HM just posted its not really about the details yet.  

Don't know if you saw my edit above. But it isn't temps that get us but instead the lack of precip. But I agree with HM. Details are unimportant at this time. This track is exactly what we want to see. Get that and I think the details would work out fine for us. 

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51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For day 8? Looks as if the surface slipped somewhat taking the low further north. As far as the 500's? Somewhat different look but I would side with that slipping somewhat as well.

eta: Looking at the rest of the run I think I liked the 00Z run a little better as well. But this is all a quick glance because i am in the middle of something else right this second so maybe I  am off base somewhat.

Day8 storm is very doubtful without a decent supply of cold.  I'm just expecting wind and rain. Going to need an bullseye with the 500mb low in order to get anything else.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Just thought I would add. With the control's solution and shave a couple/few degrees off the solution and what we would have is a storm that would probably rival the top 10, if not the top 5 storms of all times from DC up to NE. 

eta: I stand corrected. It isn't the cold that kills us, its the lack of precip. The precip slides all around around our region as the low tracks to our south, up the coast and then retrogrades back down the coast. That would be the ultimate middle finger to us this winter.

That kinda what happened in that horrible Dec. 2010 storm?

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I think one of the reasons that we are getting responses like this today, is that some were probably expecting some tangible opportunities, trends up in snowfall, and cold to start showing up by now. Models are still going all over the place outside of about 120hrs. We really want to see models start to double down on blocking/snow/cold from here on out. Given it's March, any small shift away from this look is probably some sort of small disaster and a couple of small shifts would equal a major disaster. 
The reason those responses are popping up are the same broken record over and over......some people set their expectations too high due to a favorable teleconnection in the LR so when an op model at 10 days out(!) isnt what they want to see (even if the preferred guidance at that range, the ens means, disagree with op runs), they get discouraged. It is a sickness. We have chances coming up starting in about 10 days give or take. That's all we can ask for in early Morch. Some years you can look at the upper air pattern and just know its basically over. We dont have that stake thru the heart type thing this year. And if the chances dont pan out, so be it. At least we are all still here tracking 'something' still right now.
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its funny. As soon as the euro run ended...i told HM on twitter that he euro control would save us before it even came out
Im sure HM felt relieved that you consoled him because he was probably ready to jump off a cliff.
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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The Euro kinda did what the GFS did, but to a lesser extent. Doesn't retro the NA ridge enough and tries to merge it with the ridging over the US.

The euro op is an unmitigated disaster.  It's doing exactly what the op gfs did. The EPS geps and gefs don't do that. They all keep the ridge far enough north to allow troughing under and not link up with the conus ridge. So it would be foolish to get overly alarmed by two op runs.  If you want to feel good stop reading now.

But...it's still the the two best ops and things start to go horribly wrong at only day 7. The signs the nao ridge is gonna slide south and link with the mid latitude ridge is already apparent by then. And while the ensembles don't do that man are they dangerously close. We need the block to retrograde southwest to offset the Pacific but man we're playing with fire. If that ridge gets too south and gets absorbed in with the mid lat ridge it's game over. The system in the Atlantic will cut off and just sit there then after it finally dissipates the ridging will reload east and it's all over. If that solution starts to show up more regularly...uh oh. 

That said att I think that's a hiccup. Not only is it not favored on guidance it's such a wacky extreme solution.  I'm not betting on that. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro op is an unmitigated disaster.  It's doing exactly what the op gfs did. The EPS geps and gefs don't do that. They all keep the ridge far enough north to allow troughing under and not link up with the conus ridge. So it would be foolish to get overly alarmed by two op runs.  If you want to feel good stop reading now.

But...it's still the the two best ops and things start to go horribly wrong at only day 7. The signs the nao ridge is gonna slide south and link with the mid latitude ridge is already apparent by then. And while the ensembles don't do that man are they dangerously close. We need the block to retrograde southwest to offset the Pacific but man we're playing with fire. If that ridge gets too south and gets absorbed in with the mid lat ridge it's game over. The system in the Atlantic will cut off and just sit there then after it finally dissipates the ridging will reload east and it's all over. If that solution starts to show up more regularly...uh oh. 

That said att I think that's a hiccup. Not only is it not favored on guidance it's such a wacky extreme solution.  I'm not betting on that. 

Op run, I keep telling myself it's only an Op run. But it is a little troubling. See that occur and it is probably game over and we can start discussing next years El Nino.

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