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Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion


Ji

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I doubt the guidance is handling this right at range. The ggem is lol. No storm. But Day 7-10 it's tracking a system east to west north of us lol. Some crazy stuff showing up. Gfs has weak systems moving north to south down the coast. Everything is pinwheeling around stuck under the blocking. 

CMC does have a weak storm but for SNE

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I think we can all agree that the GFS didn't nail jack sheet this run. But it opened the door for some discussion as we waste time getting rained on. 

Did you see how the storm that starts over Chicago ends up off the mid Atlantic then retrogrades SW towards the Bahamas after that. Lol. Crazy crazy.  Unfortunately might be too crazy. It's showing up on all the guidance.

The initial wave in a blocking regime is rarely the one. Typically that establishes the colder air. Then after is when we have shots.  But this blocking might be too extreme. It's setting up what typically happens to our northeast over us. With a big pinwheel under the block. But nothing can amplify in that. It would just be days of chilly breezy snow showery weather. Maybe some discreet vorts embedded with minor events. But that has to relax.  If this fails my money is it's because of too much blocking and suppression after that initial wave around March 2. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Did you see how the storm that starts over Chicago ends up off the mid Atlantic then retrogrades SW towards the Bahamas after that. Lol. Crazy crazy.  Unfortunately might be too crazy. It's showing up on all the guidance.

The initial wave in a blocking regime is rarely the one. Typically that establishes the colder air. Then after is when we have shots.  But this blocking might be too extreme. It's setting up what typically happens to our northeast over us. With a big pinwheel under the block. But nothing can amplify in that. It would just be days of chilly breezy snow showery weather. Maybe some discreet vorts embedded with minor events. But that has to relax.  If this fails my money is it's because of too much blocking and suppression after that initial wave around March 2. 

Days of snow showery weather?  Where do I sign up.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

LOL the GFS just lost the block. It like..evaporated.

Actually...it did exactly what chuck said it would do lol. It did this one op run about a day ago also.  Instead of retrograding the block west across Canada it retrogrades south and merges with the ridging over the CONUS. That's a total disaster. It's so extreme it ends up simply becoming a mid latitude ridge instead of blocking.  But 99% of guidance as yet doesn't support so unless we see things move that way I'm not worried. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Did you see how the storm that starts over Chicago ends up off the mid Atlantic then retrogrades SW towards the Bahamas after that. Lol. Crazy crazy.  Unfortunately might be too crazy. It's showing up on all the guidance.

The initial wave in a blocking regime is rarely the one. Typically that establishes the colder air. Then after is when we have shots.  But this blocking might be too extreme. It's setting up what typically happens to our northeast over us. With a big pinwheel under the block. But nothing can amplify in that. It would just be days of chilly breezy snow showery weather. Maybe some discreet vorts embedded with minor events. But that has to relax.  If this fails my money is it's because of too much blocking and suppression after that initial wave around March 2. 

Days of snow showery weather?  Where do I sign up.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Actually...it did exactly what chuck said it would do lol. It did this one op run about a day ago also.  Instead of retrograding the block west across Canada it retrogrades south and merges with the ridging over the CONUS. That's a total disaster. It's so extreme it ends up simply becoming a mid latitude ridge instead of blocking.  But 99% of guidance as yet doesn't support so unless we see things move that way I'm not worried. 

I was thinking exactly that lol.

I dont look at every op run at h5. But yeah just a slightly different h5 look at 384 12z compared to the 0z run.

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Actually...it did exactly what chuck said it would do lol. It did this one op run about a day ago also.  Instead of retrograding the block west across Canada it retrogrades south and merges with the ridging over the CONUS. That's a total disaster. It's so extreme it ends up simply becoming a mid latitude ridge instead of blocking.  But 99% of guidance as yet doesn't support so unless we see things move that way I'm not worried. 
Chuck has model support? I'll side with the eps for now.
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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually...it did exactly what chuck said it would do lol. It did this one op run about a day ago also.  Instead of retrograding the block west across Canada it retrogrades south and merges with the ridging over the CONUS. That's a total disaster. It's so extreme it ends up simply becoming a mid latitude ridge instead of blocking.  But 99% of guidance as yet doesn't support so unless we see things move that way I'm not worried. 

That would be funny...in a disaster kind of way..if that happens.  Ji would jump off some tall structure...I would join him

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Did you see how the storm that starts over Chicago ends up off the mid Atlantic then retrogrades SW towards the Bahamas after that. Lol. Crazy crazy.  Unfortunately might be too crazy. It's showing up on all the guidance.

The initial wave in a blocking regime is rarely the one. Typically that establishes the colder air. Then after is when we have shots.  But this blocking might be too extreme. It's setting up what typically happens to our northeast over us. With a big pinwheel under the block. But nothing can amplify in that. It would just be days of chilly breezy snow showery weather. Maybe some discreet vorts embedded with minor events. But that has to relax.  If this fails my money is it's because of too much blocking and suppression after that initial wave around March 2. 

My thoughts exactly. The EPS was suggestive of the possibility when we saw the 50/50 displaced so far south earlier in the extended. Didn't like the look, And the look later in the extended was so ambiguous with the blocking and 50/50 it was hard to tell where it favored those features setting up.

 

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

LOL the GFS just lost the block. It like..evaporated.

Looking at the ensembles in the extended I got the impression that the members were warring over the high latitude blocking or lack there of so it comes as no surprise to see the Op lose it. Think we will really need to see that period get much closer in range to have an idea what we will be dealing with. Anything past day 10 is going to basically be a crap shoot.

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23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Looking at the ensembles in the extended I got the impression that the members were warring over the high latitude blocking or lack there of so it comes as no surprise to see the Op lose it. Think we will really need to see that period get much closer in range to have an idea what we will be dealing with. Anything past day 10 is going to basically be a crap shoot.

Yeah I noticed the tendency to break it down some too- towards day 15. The 12z GFS basically has a transient GL ridge of a few days, not really a block at all. It is almost always interesting with the op beyond day....3. lol.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mjo doesn't really support eastern ridging either. We seem headed into cold phases. I don't worship at the mjo alter but this year our temp anomalies have lined up with the mjo waves. Some years that isn't true but it has been lately. 

The strength of the wave has been noteworthy this winter.

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10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS still shows promise centered on day 8. Players are still on the board with some minor differences. Snowfall mean has ticked up once again through that period especially around the PA line.

Yeah potential is still there. Slight improvement overall in the snowfall mean for the region (over 6z) through the end of the run. More so for south-central PA.

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS still shows promise centered on day 8. Players are still on the board with some minor differences. Snowfall mean has ticked up once again through that period especially around the PA line.

Something to keep an eye on.  Sometimes in march blocking these systems that come in west to east with initially warm or a nw tracks can go nuts once they get off the coast. It's been a while but there are lots of examples mostly from the 50s and 60s when we had a lot of late season -nao. It's been rare since. But it's been on the back of my mind maybe this starts off a mess then something bombs off the mid Atlantic coast. 

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Not surprisingly the gefs doesn't support the op gfs idea of sliding nao ridge all the way south and merging with the mid latitude ridge. It retrogrades it west then actually builds it back into Greenland towards Day 16. Given the group think issues when the gefs disagrees it's a pretty good indication the op is smoking some funky stuff. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Not surprisingly the gefs doesn't support the op gfs idea of sliding nao ridge all the way south and merging with the mid latitude ridge. It retrogrades it west then actually builds it back into Greenland towards Day 16. Given the group think issues when the gefs disagrees it's a pretty good indication the op is smoking some funky stuff. 

Yeah GEFS and GEPS look similar in the LR. Evolution of the block is a bit different after initial retrograde but it persists on both. CFS weeklies still look solid.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually...it did exactly what chuck said it would do lol. It did this one op run about a day ago also.  Instead of retrograding the block west across Canada it retrogrades south and merges with the ridging over the CONUS. That's a total disaster. It's so extreme it ends up simply becoming a mid latitude ridge instead of blocking.  But 99% of guidance as yet doesn't support so unless we see things move that way I'm not worried. 

GFS ensembles aren't as bad and are actually absurd how far it went the other way 

)).gif

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS starting to light up on the March 7-9th window. Not bad for huge leads. Doesn't like the early March deal too much. I'll take e12 and call it a winter. 2 warning events back to back is acceptable. 

CTqUz1o.jpg

But you know darn well once you have the 2 in your back pocket you will be rolling the dice for the trifecta with the rest of us. Lol

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