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Ji

Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

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18 minutes ago, Amped said:

When combinend with the 50/50 low there's a NW flow and it's hard for the low to pump up moisture.

Yeah I'll go with that vortex moving southward under the block being the bigger issue than the ridging to the SW of the wave. Freaking buzz saw.

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39 minutes ago, Ji said:

well that sucks...next. 3-5 in March is like 1-2 in January

Since we aren't really looking for anything substantial  until after March 5th, I would think that anything before that would be a nice appetizer.  Besides, in Fairfax County, we haven't had more than 3 inches of snow at a time this season, so I will take 3-5 if that's all I'll get.  I am holding out hope for a March Coastal though. A March HECS would be fantastic! 

I would like like to say that I appreciate all discussion, even if it is a little early to really know much until the pattern changes   Every bit gives me a glimmer of hope for some actual snow before the season is over.  Optimism is much more helpful in this forum than pessimism.  I'm learning a great deal from the wealth of knowledge around here. 

 

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4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Since we aren't really looking for anything substantial  until after March 5th, I would think that anything before that would be a nice appetizer.  Besides, in Fairfax County, we haven't had more than 3 inches of snow at a time this season, so I will take 3-5 if that's all I'll get.  I am holding out hope for a March Coastal though. A March HECS would be fantastic! 

I would like like to say that I appreciate all discussion, even if it is a little early to really know much until the pattern changes   Every bit gives me a glimmer of hope for some actual snow before the season is over.  Optimism is much more helpful in this forum than pessimism.  I'm learning a great deal from the wealth of knowledge around here. 

 

I’d be happy to track something for a long time that delivers.  Maybe the block will do something good.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Heaviest snow from your yard through DC to Annapolis though. 5"

Lock it up?

march 1999 was an analog i kept seeing on EPS

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

march 1999 was an analog i kept seeing on EPS

CPC analogs have been showing the Ash Wed analog for 3 days straight. lol. Some other notable March periods as well. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CPC analogs have been showing the Ash Wed analog for 3 days straight. lol. Some other notable March periods as well. 

i would be okay with a March 1999 appetizer followed By ash wednesday and concluding with March 1958

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22 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Any auto-updated analogs are overrated imo.

I disagree. The cpc superensemble analogs have added solid value when looking at the long range and judging opportunity. CIPS analogs have added solid value with med to short range stuff. 

The correlation is imortant becuase a loose fitting group of analogs doesn't carry much weight but when the correlation is above .90 and three of the top 5 produced snow within a 3 day centered mean then it's meaningul and useful. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I disagree. The cpc superensemble analogs have added solid value when looking at the long range and judging opportunity. CIPS analogs have added solid value with med to short range stuff. 

The correlation is imortant becuase a loose fitting group of analogs doesn't carry much weight but when the correlation is above .90 and three of the top 5 produced snow within a 3 day centered mean then it's meaningul and useful. 

Why are so many different years generated with each update?

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Moving this conversation to the new thread...

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The one thing that most of the March blocking wins had in common was ridging west or southwest of Alaska in the WPO domain. 

We seem to have that this time too. Most of the total fail blocks had troughs there. I've done no deeper study or readings into it it's just what sticks out when looking at all the analogs that are essentially similar over the Atlantic and N Am and trying to say "so where is the difference" and it's the only thing that stuck out with any consistency. Could be a coincidence though.

Thought it was worth noting and see what others think.  

Looks about right.  Here's a composite of the good years you listed.

YH6yZTb.png

And here's a composite of the bad ones.

bpItrgQ.png

And here's the GEFS from March 4th to 9th this year.

Mk95TRA.png

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why are so many different years generated with each update?

Probably because there is a large sample pool it's drawing from. Small changes in patterns can yield a different selection of analogs pretty easily - especially if you add a ton of potential analogs to the mix in the "available pool" - the atmosphere is complex - it's not going to be a rock solid list at long leads. 

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3 minutes ago, cae said:

Moving this conversation to the new thread...

Looks about right.  Here's a composite of the good years you listed.

 

And here's a composite of the bad ones.

 

And here's the GEFS from March 4th to 9th this year.

 

How do you look at the old maps like that? Link?

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21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why are so many different years generated with each update?

Cpc is for getting an idea of specific sensible wx during a specific period of time. The years aren't analogs in their entirety. Just the 2-3 days before and after the specific date stamp. When you start seeing notable past storms falling within 2-3 days of the date stamps it means things are ripe. Conversely, when an op run shows a big storm but cpc analogs don't show any storms then the op run is an unlikely scenario. 

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I’d be happy to track something for a long time that delivers.  Maybe the block will do something good.

As I've gotten more familiar with tracking our winter wx around here...I'm realizing how much a gift January 2016 was in that regard, lol I mean how often do you see all models in agreement from like 8 days out like that? (It's kinda rare, isn't it? Or was it more of a product of the textbook look we had with that one?)

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

As I've gotten more familiar with tracking our winter wx around here...I'm realizing how much a gift January 2016 was in that regard, lol I mean how often do us see all models in agreement from like 8 days out like that? (It's kinda rare, isn't it? Or was it more of a product of the textbook look we had with that one?)

Both.  Mostly gift. Never again that easy my opinion.

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Both.  Mostly gift. Never again that easy my opinion.

Don't tell that to the 1993 Storm of the Century. That was well modeled at range. It happens and will happen again.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How was it in the 2009-10 season? We're any of those storms slam-dunk tracking? Lol

Dec 09 was good from what I recall.  Rare that we get textbook for more than 5 days.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How was it in the 2009-10 season? We're any of those storms slam-dunk tracking? Lol

I think the Dec 2009 storm didn't lock in until 3 days before. Feb 2010 was very well forecast.

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How was it in the 2009-10 season? We're any of those storms slam-dunk tracking? Lol

I seem to the first February storm being pretty well dialed in by about 5 days out, but I'm certain one of our more diligent members recalls better than I.

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18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't tell that to the 1993 Storm of the Century. That was well modeled at range. It happens and will happen again.

93' was nailed a solid 6 days out easy that I can remember.  

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