Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion


Ji

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 981
  • Created
  • Last Reply

12z GFS is a great look.  I DONT care a lick what it shows at the surface at day 11 that h5 setup is SWEET... yea is it possible the surface does that weird evolution and screws us over sure...but you know darn well its not even going to get the h5 perfectly right at that range...and its even worse at the surface so worrying about that is silly...but the 12z op gfs improved tremendously in terms of the pattern and overall setup in the long range with the large scale features.  Its a win.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GFS is a great look.  I DONT care a lick what it shows at the surface at day 11 that h5 setup is SWEET... yea is it possible the surface does that weird evolution and screws us over sure...but you know darn well its not even going to get the h5 perfectly right at that range...and its even worse at the surface so worrying about that is silly...but the 12z op gfs improved tremendously in terms of the pattern and overall setup in the long range with the large scale features.  Its a win.  

If you just looked at h5 at hour 240 wouldn't you think we were getting ready to be hammered?  I looked at h5 first and then was surprised at the surface maps. In know it's 10 days out and will change many times but man with that h5 look I think we would win more times than not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS is a great look.  I DONT care a lick what it shows at the surface at day 11 that h5 setup is SWEET... yea is it possible the surface does that weird evolution and screws us over sure...but you know darn well its not even going to get the h5 perfectly right at that range...and its even worse at the surface so worrying about that is silly...but the 12z op gfs improved tremendously in terms of the pattern and overall setup in the long range with the large scale features.  Its a win.  
The fact it links the pna with the ao blocking feature while keeping the nao ridge somewhat a separate lobe/entity is key.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even beyond hr264 things look, I think, decent on the GEFS.  especially toward the hr300 timeframe.  I mean it doesn't look like a disaster and now I am on the lookout for this morphed zombie ridge that crosses the streams between north and south high pressure to create a monster in the central US.  I don't see evidence of that on this GEFS run.  I hope I am reading it correctly.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GFS is a great look.  I DONT care a lick what it shows at the surface at day 11 that h5 setup is SWEET... yea is it possible the surface does that weird evolution and screws us over sure...but you know darn well its not even going to get the h5 perfectly right at that range...and its even worse at the surface so worrying about that is silly...but the 12z op gfs improved tremendously in terms of the pattern and overall setup in the long range with the large scale features.  Its a win.  

yup.  I had to look at 500 panels to see what the heck was going on....and then I was all better....

for the next few hours. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ill take my chances with a 988 low south   of OC nice snowstorm  for Northern  / east  Md. Low position not that different from Oz. 

Um... not with 2m temps 45-50 degrees

ETA: I see... first part is rain... after hr 174 or so then comes the snow... but 2mT are in the mid 30s fwiw

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, yoda said:

Um... not with 2m temps 45-50 degrees

Figured that.  Although I could see that as depicted it might be better far NW.  seems far in time to worry too much but it does look much different than GFS same time frame.  We just don’t have the cold in place.  Even if it was off ORF I wonder if it really would be better.  Probably not as currently depicted on this run.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BristowWx said:

Figured that.  Although I could see that as depicted it might be better far NW.  seems far in time to worry too much but it does look much different than GFS same time frame.  We just don’t have the cold in place.  Even if it was off ORF I wonder if it really would be better.  Probably not as currently depicted on this run.  

Actually the snow comes after that in a weird fashion... Buffalo SE to BWI or so is a nice heavy wet snow band

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...