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Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion


Ji

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What do you mean? Chill doesn’t hype bad patterns or try to make them seem better than they are.  
He's trolling. It would be nice if he had something to add to the discussion.. But I have yet to see a single post that adds any value whatsoever. He just junks up the thread.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Happy hour gfs is mucho bueno imo. I'm sure JI will be among to say it's a disaster because it doesn't show a snowstorm but the ops won't be right with the specifics Day 10-15 but it's got a trough in the east under blocking with systems tracking under us.  I can work with that. The 12z version was a disaster. That was an unworkable mess. 

Its like first day of spring training.

18z gfs. Your pitcher has a 98 mph heater with a killer slider but needs to work out communication  problems with the catcher. Your leadoff hitter has 4.2 speed and makes good contact but can't read a pitchers pick off move and needs to take more pitches. And your best power hitter crushes the ball 450 feet but needs to learn to lay off the curve. The potential is there.

12z gfs Your pitcher has a 70 mph fast ball and no movement. Your leadoff hitter runs a 6.5 and can't make contact. Your only power hitter can't hit a fast ball. Face palm time. 

Can you do the same analogy with football?  I don’t follow baseball. 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What do you mean? Chill doesn’t hype bad patterns or try to make them seem better than they are.  

I was going to reply then just shook my head and said "I just can't". You know he wants this to fall apart so he can blame it on some BS and up the ante for his nonsense.  No idea what his chill angle is. Bob is one of the best if not the best regular poster in this regional forum. It's not worth wasting time trying to figure out his crap. 

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18z. Philadelphia Eagles and you just lost Wentz. 

12z. Washington Redskins. 

For 12z I was thinking Cleveland Browns. Coming from an eagles fan the redskins are not that bad and will I think get better with Alex Smith. Now back on topic... are there any past examples of a high lat block going so far south it ends up as a disaster.

 

 

.

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8 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

For 12z I was thinking Cleveland Browns. Coming from an eagles fan the redskins are not that bad and will I think get better with Alex Smith. Now back on topic... are there any past examples of a high lat block going so far south it ends up as a disaster.

 

 

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It was just a joke.  I used two teams with a lot of following in this area.  But agree the redskins aren't actually that bad.  They gave the eagles more of a game then most teams this year.  But I'm not sure I like Alex Smith more then cousins  that's a wash imo.  

 

I'll look into the blocking thing tonight. I didn't see any when I looked at early march blocking events. All the march block fails I don't think they went that way. 

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26 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The GEFS looks really sweet for the 10 to 15 day period. Hard not to be optimistic for the first couple weeks of March. Below normal temps and above normal precip. Hopefully we can be tracking a legit threat  by this time next week.

 

MSLP plot is nice too...certainly a period to watch.  

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24 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The GEFS looks really sweet for the 10 to 15 day period. Hard not to be optimistic for the first couple weeks of March. Below normal temps and above normal precip. Hopefully we can be tracking a legit threat  by this time next week.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_53.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_53.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_53.png

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7.png

so 1 degrees below norm temp with 1.5 of liquid? and cold rushing off to the east?   

 i

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

18z gfs. Your pitcher has a 98 mph heater with a killer slider but needs to work out communication  problems with the catcher. Your leadoff hitter has 4.2 speed and makes good contact but can't read a pitchers pick off move and needs to take more pitches. And your best power hitter crushes the ball 450 feet but needs to learn to lay off the curve. The potential is there.

 

We need to sacrifice a chicken and get Jobu more rum.

Pedro Cerrano:  "Bats, they are sick. I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come, take fear from bats. I offer him cigar, rum. He will come."

Pedro Cerrano (after swinging and missing at curve ball):  "I'm pissed off now, Jobu. Look, I go to you. I stick up for you. You no help me now. I say "**** you Jobu", I do it myself."

:D

On topic...yes, the 18Z is a better look for sure.  I really hope the NAO ridge doesn't push so far south we end up with eastern ridging as you mentioned before.  That would definitely be game over.  Fortunately, looks like an outlier...for right now.

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1 hour ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

For 12z I was thinking Cleveland Browns. Coming from an eagles fan the redskins are not that bad and will I think get better with Alex Smith. Now back on topic... are there any past examples of a high lat block going so far south it ends up as a disaster.

 

 

.

Ouch!  As a native Clevelander, that hurts!  But appropriate! :bag:

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Happy hour gfs is mucho bueno imo. I'm sure JI will be among to say it's a disaster because it doesn't show a snowstorm but the ops won't be right with the specifics Day 10-15 but it's got a trough in the east under blocking with systems tracking under us.  I can work with that. The 12z version was a disaster. That was an unworkable mess. 

Its like first day of spring training.

18z gfs. Your pitcher has a 98 mph heater with a killer slider but needs to work out communication  problems with the catcher. Your leadoff hitter has 4.2 speed and makes good contact but can't read a pitchers pick off move and needs to take more pitches. And your best power hitter crushes the ball 450 feet but needs to learn to lay off the curve. The potential is there.

12z gfs Your pitcher has a 70 mph fast ball and no movement. Your leadoff hitter runs a 6.5 and can't make contact. Your only power hitter can't hit a fast ball. Face palm time. 

@psuhoffman Not sure you came across this or not but today's EPS had a crazy depicted + 510 meter block midway between Iceland and Greenland at hour 144.  Bluewave mentioned this on the NY thread, stated may be the strongest, a record for early March.  I was not aware the CPC NAO data,  as Bluewave stated,  has not been updated in a few days but is due to be updated tomorrow,  per Don S. There was a significant computer issue. Well, its going to be crazy looking at the forecast tomorrow.  I guess the morale of the story here is that it's still early to tell how this block progresses, but we have some crazy stuff to think about and ponder the next few weeks with that block .    

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40 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Lots of ppl in the gym already talking about a supposed snow next week.

Where are people getting this nonsense? This is like the 3rd or 4th time I've heard from different sources that people are all talking about the big snow next week. Are the Twitter "mets" on crack somewhere?

HUGE difference between "more favorable pattern coming soon" and "MONSTER EPIC SNOWMAGEDDON LOCKED IN....PLEASE DIE NOW TO AVOID THE FUTURE SUFFERING".

Hoping tonight's runs start moving us towards something more concrete!

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