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Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion


Ji

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Just now, Amped said:

I don't think I've ever seen the same storm track too far northwest and too far southeast.  Thats what the 12z GFS shows.

Yes that was what I thought..way to far out on op run to debate but h5 showed some promise to me..of course maybe I am wrong...its different than 6z as expected

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

if so, it will be interesting to see how the models respond each day.  That's what intrigues me the most.  you can see the differences in the op runs as expected.  but the solutions look much different run to run as the block effects become more recognized.  could mean nothing but from a weather perspective its fun to see it play out even if I don't see a flake of snow.

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I'm just looking for positive changes....not saying things are locking into anything.  Similar to the op...the gefs knock down the eastern ridge a bit more during this timeframe.  As a result things are more suppressed.

Considering its a mean at D10 and the 2" came from one system, It's a pos change. 06z had a limited signal with a mean of .1" 

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I'm just looking for positive changes....not saying things are locking into anything.  Similar to the op...the gefs knock down the eastern ridge a bit more during this timeframe.  As a result things are more suppressed.

Considering its a mean at D10 and the 2" came from one system, It's a pos change. 06z had a limited signal with a mean of .1" 

its one GEFS run but I have to wonder if some wouldn't consider that a strong signal this far out?  9 days?  I guess we cant answer that until more ens runs come in for the same time period. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

its one GEFS run but I have to wonder if some wouldn't consider that a strong signal this far out?  9 days?  I guess we cant answer that until more ens runs come in for the same time period. 

I agree...its one run and I'm probably overanalyzing.

It's 81 outside and I'm stuck home taking care of the family's latest flu victim....what else am I supposed to do. lol 

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Who cares? It's the GEFS. It's basically worthless. Wake me in a week or so and then you can (maybe) start actually seeing if there are legit threats to track or not. Let the pattern develop and get closer in time.

This is a long range thread, no? They are discussing the long range. Clearly there's nothing exciting going on now so why not talk about the future?

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6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

This is a long range thread, no? They are discussing the long range. Clearly there's nothing exciting going on now so why not talk about the future?

Not saying not to talk about it, but to act like one run of the GEFS that's not great for 10 days from now is something to worry about with this kind of evolving pattern is just beyond silly.

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12 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not saying not to talk about it, but to act like one run of the GEFS that's not great for 10 days from now is something to worry about with this kind of evolving pattern is just beyond silly.

Give me break...To have to preface every post with every caveat known to man gets tiresome. Nobody said it is to be taken as gospel.  It's a casual conversation on a weak signal that has been on the models for a few days.  If you think its silly than so be it.

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