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The Revs quick Flip Frozen Freakshow


Ginx snewx

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, not really what I said...  

"...that's wee-bit of a warm bust over forecaster interpretations I saw yesterday, ..." 

I didn't honestly look at the discrete thermal layout of the various guidance' yesterday, wrt to this cold intrusion today. I was too pre-occupied by the magnificent record warmth, which is far and a way the bigger news story this week.  For me anyway... 

I apologize for misinterpreting your words.    The last two days were really remarkable.

This crud we are getting today is pretty forgettable without the previous warmth

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I apologize for misinterpreting your words.    The last two days were really remarkable.

This crud we are getting today is pretty forgettable without the previous warmth

OH absolutely!   ...without the juxtaposition so fresh in the mind and acclimation sown in off those two days, this is just hoi polloi weather in a typical February doldrum 

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42 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Hmmm 60 on Sat? Where...?

 

Mm, may not be the right thread for this.. buut,  NAM and GFS based MOS' are 57 and 59 for that day respectively for a generic location, such as Bedford Mass, and balancing those numbers against the following factors:

a  .. that is dented a little by climatology in machine/interpretive automation even as near as 2 or 3 days out

b  .. synoptically, the wind backs NW which is a drying component in our climate. as well, doing so amid lowering RH advection anyway... Regardless of cloud products, ...probably the ceilings lift out. 

c   .. we are still running 850 mb/lower tropos. thickness anomalies, albeit modest... but, with post Feb 15 sun getting quite warm feeding particularly into the synoptic argument ... 

d   .. from about mid Feb until early Aug... MOS/machine -based guidance types will typically bust cool under all those circumstances working above.  Perhaps in 100 years of gathered statistics the MOS will finally have the A.I. to assess those super-adiabat afternoons more precisely... but of course, (haha), by then, if humanity hasn't annihilated it's self in our brand of the Cosmos' 'universal kill-switch' applied to all advancing technological species... we may very well  be controlling the quantum momentum states of the atmosphere's actual fluid medium, effectively rendering such predictive tools as obsolete. 

Ha, you know... Scott calls those afternoons, "down-slope dandies" ...which I like... This Saturday smacks pretty clearly of that ...powdered over achievement on temp, just add liquid sunshine. And, it would probably feel that way too... It's light winds... and warm sun when walking out of doors, if that's in the "nook" affect, it will feel it - 

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Radar def looks very good but keep in mind this is going to be fighting the polar high to the north which is supplying a lot of dry air. So that does help in wetbulbing the column but it will also tend to try and chew up the precip a bit too. So you end up with some virga on the northern side which makes the radar presentation look better than ground truth. 

Still, the frontogenetic forcing is pretty strong so we will have to watch for an east-west band of moderate to heavy snow later this afternoon. It really could go either way...trace to a couple inches or someone gets lucky in a band and we see some 3-4" amounts. Nowcast. 

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm, may not be the right thread for this.. buut,  NAM and GFS based MOS' are 57 and 59 for that day respectively for a generic location, such as Bedford Mass, and balancing those numbers against the following factors:

a  .. that is dented a little by climatology in machine/interpretive automation even as near as 2 or 3 days out

b  .. synoptically, the wind backs NW which is a drying component in our climate. as well, doing so amid lowering RH advection anyway... Regardless of cloud products, ...probably the ceilings lift out. 

c   .. we are still running 850 mb/lower tropos. thickness anomalies, albeit modest... but, with post Feb 15 sun getting quite warm feeding particularly into the synoptic argument ... 

d   .. from about mid Feb until early Aug... MOS/machine -based guidance types will typically bust cool under all those circumstances working above.  Perhaps in 100 years of gathered statistics the MOS will finally have the A.I. to assess those super-adiabat afternoons more precisely... but of course, (haha), by then, if humanity hasn't annihilated it's self in our brand of the Cosmos' 'universal kill-switch' applied to all advancing technological species... we may very well  be controlling the quantum momentum states of the atmosphere's actual fluid medium, effectively rendering such predictive tools as obsolete. 

Ha, you know... Scott calls those afternoons, "down-slope dandies" ...which I like... This Saturday smacks pretty clearly of that ...powdered over achievement on temp, just add liquid sunshine. And, it would probably feel that way too... It's light winds... and warm sun when walking out of doors, if that's in the "nook" affect, it will feel it - 

Good points. I'm surprised to see MOS so high for that location.

I'd be on the downslope bandwagon if it wasn't for the combination of factors working against it - a.)significant cloud potential b.) NW winds appear relatively light, and speeds don't increase until later in the day when the wind direction changes to more northerly/northeasterly c.) Trending on short term guidance has been colder at the 850 mb level. d.) Feb sun is certainly stronger - but it is enough? Late March and into April I'd def agree...Surfaces are also colder in Feb, in general...Takes more ISR for same effect...

It will certainly be interesting to see if we can downslope our way to a nice day in between disturbances, bc in my view the setup seems marginal at best...We'll see...

 

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good points. I'm surprised to see MOS so high for that location.

I'd be on the downslope bandwagon if it wasn't for the combination of factors working against it - a.)significant cloud potential b.) NW winds appear relatively light, and speeds don't increase until later in the day when the wind direction changes to more northerly/northeasterly c.) Trending on short term guidance has been colder at the 850 mb level. 

It will certainly be interesting to see if we can downslope our way to a nice day in between disturbances, bc in my view the setup seems marginal at best...We'll see...

 

In fact, ...the warmest temperatures over SNE would be the exit points along the S -E coastal regions (save for any location that might locally breeze back onshore)

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In fact, ...the warmest temperatures over SNE would be the exit points along the S -E coastal regions (save for any location that might locally breeze back onshore)

 

I agree. All things considered a high temp anywhere in NE near 60 would be quite the victory for you and MOS, considering this latest nam guidance-- have to get to Northern Virginiia before you can find the 60's

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