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moneypitmike

The "We Won't Have Any More Snow in February" February 17th Event

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

When  the thing starts to deepen a little faster as it's exiting south of Long Island there may be a band or two that blossoms over Easter mass and Rhode Island exit style due to lower troposphere surfaces closing off

It definitely looks like there will "try" to be a late surge in intensity right before it exits...some guidance almost looks a bit IVT-ish with the upper air support coming in and trying to prolong the snow and yank the isobars back west....it wouldn't shock me if there's some intense snows near the end in eastenr areas and up into southern Maine. Some guidance forms this enhancement too late too. Nowcast deal is if often the case.

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49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting Now cast.  Looks like this is going to be right along the South Shore flurries north if rad tells the lead in  

see how it unfolds

Yeah, no way.... That's already wrong. Unless you're trolling. 

I could see this busting for Maine. 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If anything it appears to be a bit earlier so hard to tell if north/south. Jusding on it though I think it's a tad NE. There was never with this but it looked like 850 would never develop until it was like around Block Island or something. But given it's development now, this could really enhance some higher amounts possible across like NE CT/RI and interior SE MA depending on track and how strong it gets

Gotcha... closing in on 3" here by eye... will go out at 10.

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

When  the thing starts to deepen a little faster as it's exiting south of Long Island there may be a band or two that blossoms over Easter mass and Rhode Island exit style due to lower troposphere surfaces closing off

It's literally already doing that now? 

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1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

HRRR and Rap trends are perfectly valid to watch during a storm. 

Key is to not put much creedance into a particular run, but more so the trend of multiple runs. 

Don't cloud the thread with unbiased model interpretation! 

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1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

Gotcha... closing in on 3" here by eye... will go out at 10.

I think there might have been one run of the NAM a few days back that like was suggesting an earlier development/closing off but other than that it, along with other models were consistent on this happening much later on and further east.

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Just now, sbos_wx said:

Trust me. Maine has it's pros and cons. Missed a lot of storms south in my year at Bridgton. 

Seems like this might be a general 1-3 for a large swath of that 3-6 zone if look doesn't change in next hour or two. 

I think the southern section could be in trouble, but the forcing farther east may actually get a bump late tonight when the low really matures (like Will was saying for eastern parts of SNE).

At least it's an advisory and not a warning.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I think the southern section could be in trouble, but the forcing farther east may actually get a bump late tonight when the low really matures (like Will was saying for eastern parts of SNE).

At least it's an advisory and not a warning.

Exactly my thought. Sort of in between the initial thump and maturation

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There is an awfully lot of dry air though out ahead of the main ULL. I wonder if as the ULL moves east if we'll see a re-blossoming of the precipitation shield once it interacts further with the sfc low?

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