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moneypitmike

The "We Won't Have Any More Snow in February" February 17th Event

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep Kev had that too once he realized it would snow again in Feb

Yeah he was pretty steadfast in 4-8 for most

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Picked up 5" from this one.  

37"+(close to 38) For the season.  It has taken 12 events to get to that amount. 

I am still sticking by my call of not reaching climo average this year for total snow.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he was pretty steadfast in 4-8 for most

Didn’t he go higher in the end though?

either way.... I think people who didn’t take the cheese on the higher amounts down here should be given credit. If you forecasted exclusively with the euro... we’d have gotten 10” down here. 

I also didn’t anticipate flipping to rain which it did for a while here. Pretty meh guidance performance at least in this area.

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Didn’t he go higher in the end though?

either way.... I think people who didn’t take the cheese on the higher amounts down here should be given credit. If you forecasted exclusively with the euro... we’d have gotten 10” down here. 

I also didn’t anticipate flipping to rain which it did for a while here. Pretty meh guidance performance at least in this area.

No.  His map was a wide area of 4-8.

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22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Didn’t he go higher in the end though?

either way.... I think people who didn’t take the cheese on the higher amounts down here should be given credit. If you forecasted exclusively with the euro... we’d have gotten 10” down here. 

I also didn’t anticipate flipping to rain which it did for a while here. Pretty meh guidance performance at least in this area.

Euro showed dicey 925s for a few hours in your area.

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Now we move on to weenie WTF mode.

Clearly it was a pretty crappy forecast on our part. The question is why.

I was out of town and not plugged in, but a quick review of some previous model cycles shows some definite signs that we had an over-performer on our hands. I really wish I hadn't come into this event cold, but alas.

The 12z run of the NAM Saturday was definitely headed into a "take 'em up" scenario. Check out the 850 mb VV, and 925 mb theta-e. There is a pretty pronounced signal for some inverted trof focusing of precip into SE NH and SW ME. 

NAMNE_850_vvel_024.png.a3fec6ccd3d56d46a8c51d5bfb200a4a.png

NAMNE_925_thetae_021.png.ce7066a33afff8353fae4c4a7a698bf7.png\

Not only is there a theta-e axis in that area, but convergence too. 

I also though this forecast sounding around 09z last night (21 hour lead time) was interesting.

5a89d914ebe22_2018021712_NAM_021_43.9-70.37_severe_ml.thumb.png.5914939dc403e66f49be0083003ac6a7.png

That's at GYX. Check out the max VV (red bars on the left), just in a below the heart of the DGZ. Not only that but right in the max VV zone was at least a conditionally unstable layer, more likely a MAUL signature. Prime argument for bumping ratios up.

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6 hours ago, dryslot said:

I don't think it was the fact the storm was better, Its the ratios ended up being much higher for the amount of qpf that fell.

Ratios were really good up this way, but it is going to be on the rare occasion that any forecaster goes straight 20:1 on their snowfall. 50% of all snow events nationally have ratios between 9 and 16:1. But there are definitely times when you need to deviate. We're moving more and more towards forecasting snow ratios grids to get our snowfall grids, so they matter.

One key stat, 75% of all warning events see the max VV at or just below a saturated DGZ, but only 10% of advisory events see this same cross-hair signature. So having an advisory up with the NAM forecast soundings (see my previous post) looking the way they did should've been a bigger Scooter caution flag.

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5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Those midlevels can do wonders sometimes. Not shocked at 20 to 1 but it is not something you will solely base a forecast on. It's pretty dangerous. 

This is a good example of how we don't need it all either. 700 mb didn't get cranking and close off until well east of the area, but there was still plenty of fronotgenesis going on as it was trying. 850 did close off within range for a lot of the area.

Plenty of upper level support with this one, without the classic look.

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As the storm moves rapidly away it has become quite an impressive system. out to our east...  
Untitled.jpg.76d7a7b4430f52c54c62d94e4cf5970c.jpg

The ponies are getting rocked. Sable island is reporting 0 visibility in heavy snow. That sandbar will get the jack award of this storm.

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59 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ratios were really good up this way, but it is going to be on the rare occasion that any forecaster goes straight 20:1 on their snowfall. 50% of all snow events nationally have ratios between 9 and 16:1. But there are definitely times when you need to deviate. We're moving more and more towards forecasting snow ratios grids to get our snowfall grids, so they matter.

One key stat, 75% of all warning events see the max VV at or just below a saturated DGZ, but only 10% of advisory events see this same cross-hair signature. So having an advisory up with the NAM forecast soundings (see my previous post) looking the way they did should've been a bigger Scooter caution flag.

I was actually surprised when i went out to clean the snow that it actually had some water content to it, I thought it would have been higher fluff but it looks as it cooled the snow took on more of a fluff in the last 3"

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4 hours ago, dryslot said:

I was actually surprised when i went out to clean the snow that it actually had some water content to it, I thought it would have been higher fluff but it looks as it cooled the snow took on more of a fluff in the last 3"

When did you go out to clean it up? It was like feathers when I went out at 7a, but by 9a the sun was already seeing its way through it to the sfc and softening it up. By afternoon you couldn’t even tell we picked up almost 7” new.

6811195E-091F-4B94-9D6F-29055773CAE3.jpeg

ADEEF412-0021-4319-AD59-51AC346FCE73.jpeg

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice banks there.

Yea, I shoveled early and it was pure fluff. The late morning melt added the water content.

Yeah...not bad considering the torches and rain. They’re not close to 07-08 but they keep the chickens in the yard.

 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

When did you go out to clean it up? It was like feathers when I went out at 7a, but by 9a the sun was already seeing its way through it to the sfc and softening it up. By afternoon you couldn’t even tell we picked up almost 7” new.

6811195E-091F-4B94-9D6F-29055773CAE3.jpeg

ADEEF412-0021-4319-AD59-51AC346FCE73.jpeg

It was right around 9, I didn't think the sun worked on it that quick............lol

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Ah...watching the radar loop from overnight, I see that I got stuck in some major subsidence around midnight from that main band to the south.

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