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The "We Won't Have Any More Snow in February" February 17th Event


moneypitmike

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

When  the thing starts to deepen a little faster as it's exiting south of Long Island there may be a band or two that blossoms over Easter mass and Rhode Island exit style due to lower troposphere surfaces closing off

It definitely looks like there will "try" to be a late surge in intensity right before it exits...some guidance almost looks a bit IVT-ish with the upper air support coming in and trying to prolong the snow and yank the isobars back west....it wouldn't shock me if there's some intense snows near the end in eastenr areas and up into southern Maine. Some guidance forms this enhancement too late too. Nowcast deal is if often the case.

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If anything it appears to be a bit earlier so hard to tell if north/south. Jusding on it though I think it's a tad NE. There was never with this but it looked like 850 would never develop until it was like around Block Island or something. But given it's development now, this could really enhance some higher amounts possible across like NE CT/RI and interior SE MA depending on track and how strong it gets

Gotcha... closing in on 3" here by eye... will go out at 10.

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1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

Gotcha... closing in on 3" here by eye... will go out at 10.

I think there might have been one run of the NAM a few days back that like was suggesting an earlier development/closing off but other than that it, along with other models were consistent on this happening much later on and further east.

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Just now, sbos_wx said:

Trust me. Maine has it's pros and cons. Missed a lot of storms south in my year at Bridgton. 

Seems like this might be a general 1-3 for a large swath of that 3-6 zone if look doesn't change in next hour or two. 

I think the southern section could be in trouble, but the forcing farther east may actually get a bump late tonight when the low really matures (like Will was saying for eastern parts of SNE).

At least it's an advisory and not a warning.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I think the southern section could be in trouble, but the forcing farther east may actually get a bump late tonight when the low really matures (like Will was saying for eastern parts of SNE).

At least it's an advisory and not a warning.

Exactly my thought. Sort of in between the initial thump and maturation

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