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PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting


Bob Chill

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I mentioned to @high risk this morning I was interested to see how the various snowmaps did in an event like this. After accounting for the typical banding we saw, I think kuchera did best. 12z euro kuchera had a lot of the area in the 1.5-3” range which verified pretty well I think. Obviously the 10:1 was way to high, but those snow depth change maps were too low.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You got screwed in that dry spot for a couple of hours with this one or you would have matched me easily. 

It was frustrating this afternoon when it was snowing everywhere but here.  But when it finally came together, it was a great couple of hours.  Have been out four-wheeling this evening.  We finally just hit 32 degrees, so for the rural roads in this area to be as trashed as they are really speaks to the great rates.

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Ending was a little disappointing with sleet and rain mixing in but overall it was a nice event. The period from 3:30 to about 5 or so was awesome. I almost forgot what it looked like to see heavy snow. Rates were intense enough that the warm roads didn't stand a chance. I'm like a drug addict needing my fix at this point. Just looking for a solid snowstorm where we get a full day of snow and the main roads still have a decent amount of snow on them in the travel lanes even with the plows trying to clear them. Maybe March will surprise us all.

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Wow!  All the best returns stayed south?
Edited to add:  Looks like it.  Clarksburg may have been the sweet spot on this one:
codnexlab.NEXRAD_LWX_N0Q.20180218_128.096ani.thumb.gif.c1feeca770963d621cf0da886d89f147.gif


Yup got the dreaded snow hole for a couple hours. Congrats on your jackpot!
Congrats on surpassing last winter's snow total!  :thumbsup:
 
MDstorm


Thanks! No complaints here, was pretty once it really got going.
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57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mentioned to @high risk this morning I was interested to see how the various snowmaps did in an event like this. After accounting for the typical banding we saw, I think kuchera did best. 12z euro kuchera had a lot of the area in the 1.5-3” range which verified pretty well I think. Obviously the 10:1 was way to high, but those snow depth change maps were too low.

    yeah, it's been my experience that the snow depth maps can run low, but in these tough call events, they tend to be way better than the 10:1 maps.    In this case, the depth maps were underdone in central MD, but they sure told me that the 10:1 map idea of 6" in southern Howard and 3-5" for all of DC Metro and southern MD wouldn't be the way to go either.

    Even the Ferrier map was underdone, telling me that the NAM had the sleet line advancing north too quickly.     That seems plausible, as the initial thump stayed snowy longer and got cranking early, allowing a larger part of the area to start tallying up snow.

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