Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting


Bob Chill

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, we'll see how that goes. The northern edge of the southern band could be the surprise area...or it could be an unexpected quick flip to sleet and rain...lol. You never know. Marginal stuff that starts as snow "usually" performs as good or better than a blend of guidance but there are plenty of exceptions. Rain to snow almost always underperforms the blend of guidance. I'm just hoping to see some heavy rates for a time and white ground. I'm not nearly as optimistic about getting 2" as I was early yesterday. That's for sure. 

I was really wanting us to end up under that jet enhanced band that's way up in PA through northern NJ now. That's where the big winners will be.  Lot of 5-8" totals there and maybe even a few pushing 10. Seen this game before. The models always underestimate that and the ratios are better. I'm confident in that. Less needs to go right with that to work also. Nws is gonna bust way low where that band sets up. 

Before yesterday we were in play for that. Especially nw of 95. But that's a lost cause now even up here. I was a bit upset and vented last night but is what it is and it's gametime so we go to bat with what we got. Need to rely on rates and banding and marginal temps and hope for the best.  I have to reset expectations a bit also. I felt safe for 3+ before...I can see how that could fail now. 

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

 


You stay nervous, it usually bodes well for us in the end ;)


.

 

Why break character when it works.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
4 minutes ago, das said:

The warm layer is oh-so-shallow. 2m temps are 42.1°F and the 10m temps are  36.1°F here in Clarksburg with a DP of  25°F.  Literally a 6°F difference to the tops of the trees. Surface layer temps are not the issue here. Rates will make-or-break this storm. Too bad they have trended north in the last 24 hours. 

Think we can will a band into Upper MoCo again? ;)  I like a general 1-3" for the county, but I can see 2-4" verifying for areas north and east of Germantown with a good band at some point. Clarksburg/Laytonsville/Olney/Damascus in the running. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The euro has never wavered much with QPF on this storm for many runs now. Always somewhere in the neighborhood of .4 pretty evenly distributed. We'll see after it's over this evening but if things go down like I think they will....the euro destroyed all guidance. Hopefully the mesos are right with some qpf jacks though. Someone could be in for a nice scene for an hour or 2. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is a very believable accum map. The good thing is it will look like a lot of snow falling even if ratios are well below 10:1. Good run man all things considered. 

Nq8Gtsk.jpg

SouthernWesternFringed!  I will hug the NAM3k, thank you very much!  Still snowing here, barely accumulating because temp is 32.4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

RAP/HRRR aren't terribly wet, but they really nuke us in the 5pm - 7pm window...

Yea, all guidance looks pretty hot and heavy during that window. We need precip to get rolling ASAP and help as much as possible with temps before then. Radar actually looks really good right now. Better than I thought it would honestly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...