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PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting


Bob Chill

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3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yep,  can always count on Stephens City being the warmest spot in the valley.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KVASTEPH1

 

 

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

 39.3° here under filtered sunshine.  Up  3.6° in the past hour.

Wow Crazy micro climate in our area. 

6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Snow and sleet lightly falling here in last 10 minutes, 36.8/30.3. Definitely NOT starting as a 'wall'.

Hmmm. Interesting that the Weenie radar isnt very far off so far:

usa_None_anim.gif

 

 

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 

Wow Crazy micro climate in our area. 

Hmmm. Interesting that the Weenie radar isnt very far off so far:

usa_None_anim.gif

 

 

The radar looks stout.  Its a shame the system wasn't 6 hours earlier. Let's hope we wet bulb down to the low 30's and let the chips fall.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With a dry column and relatively cold mids, hitting 40 isn't as big of a deal as everyone is making it. It's very shallow warmth that can be overcome. This was never looking to be a subfreezing powder bomb.

The surface is a mess, Bob.  It was 75F 36 hours ago, and now we've got 40F region-wide with several hours of sun blasting the surface, and temps in the low-to-mid 30s (at best) during the event.    I can't see a system with top-end potential of .4 - .5" QPF delivering the rates necessary to overcome this..  You know a lot more about this than I do, but I only see failure in my area.  I'm sure rates will be much greater to my NE (as they always are) and the usual northern MD crowd will get a decent event.

And as I type this, the sun is back out.  :facepalm:

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Well, let's hope the 3k NAM is correct then. Pretty sure 1-2"/hr rates would overcome temp issues

5a885cf05b6fa_qpf_003h.us_ne(4).thumb.png.696c34211e43148f3662aa79a42cc861.png

While the HRRR is dry as a bone

hrrr_apcpn_neus_18.thumb.png.bdb4329ec6f441f9f7606476f403ee3b.png

Not sure which is right, but the 3k NAM is about as bullish as you can get

HRRR is an absolute disaster.  And it fits pretty well with the predominant QPF distribution for this winter.

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7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The surface is a mess, Bob.  It was 75F 36 hours ago, and now we've got 40F region-wide with several hours of sun blasting the surface, and temps in the low-to-mid 30s (at best) during the event.    I can't see a system with top-end potential of .4 - .5" QPF delivering the rates necessary to overcome this..  You know a lot more about this than I do, but I only see failure in my area.  I'm sure rates will be much greater to my NE (as they always are) and the usual northern MD crowd will get a decent event.

And as I type this, the sun is back out.  :facepalm:

It is already snowing not very far away from you. Snowing n/w of Harrisonburg and just west of us. You will snow with this one.

http://www.511virginia.org/

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

HRRR is an absolute disaster.  And it fits pretty well with the predominant QPF distribution for this winter.

And sadly, the HRRR has been basically spot on with temps so far this event. Warmest of all mesoscale models, and it's done pretty well. It could very well nail precip

43 degrees here

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5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

And sadly, the HRRR has been basically spot on with temps so far this event. Warmest of all mesoscale models, and it's done pretty well.

43 degrees here

HRRR is busting badly with temps out here in Garrett.  Earlier runs had me in the upper 30s while I’m currently at 29 under a thick cloud deck.  

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Just now, nj2va said:

HRRR is busting badly with temps out here in Garrett.  Earlier runs had me in the upper 30s while I’m currently at 29 under a heavy cloud deck.  

That's good news for sure. Like Bob said, it probably isn't a deal breaker. Temps were pretty warm on March 13/14, and temps got kicked down pretty quickly.

 

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1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

40/23 in Hyattsville. Was sunny from 8AM - 11 or so, now starting to cloud over. 

You can see the high cloud cover moving in from the west on the last few frames of the GOES: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-northeast-02-48-0-100

The last bit of clearing is right over D.C.

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4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yeah, but I'm more worried about the snow that sticks on the ground than what falls from the sky.  

I haven't followed your yard but in my region, it was forecast to be in the mid/upper 30s so nothing has surprised me today. I also expected onset to have no chance at sticking right away either. The first hour or so of precip will do nothing but cool things. My biggest worry is how long I can stay snow. You are in a better spot for that than I am. It's chips fall time now. Many of us are right on the edge as usual. Time to just let it play out and hope for a nice scene before it gets nuked shortly after sunrise tomorrow. 

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