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The NAM is likely overdone as usual, but that would be one way to maybe pull a needle from the haystack and have a decent event to the coast. The low is far enough away so that mid level warmth doesn't overwhelm, and initial boundary layer issues are overcome by heavy rates. The NAM would lose an inch or two to rain or nonaccumulating snow in the city, but that would be a decent advisory event at least. 

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This is really unlike any other system and I can’t find any great analog.  This would ordinarily track overhead NYC or maybe a bit north of that but because of the ripping flow and weakness or low pressure back across the central Great Lakes region it’s unable to really gain latitude like it otherwise would.  

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

euro/srefs/nam/icon/ukie

all get atleast 3-5" into NYC

Euro isn’t 3-5” in NYC. It would probably be some slop at the end as the low departs and cools the column down. It may be overdone with the mid level warmth but most of that would be rain or mix that doesn’t accumulate. Other models are mostly colder though. 

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I still like the conservative approach, and that's why I'm sticking with my earlier call for 2-4" with lollies to 5-6". It wouldn't take much of a shift back in the other direction to lower totals significantly. I expect the models to continue to flop around for the next 24 hours, typical windshield wiper effect.

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Guys the GFS model is the worst model of all globals. The ukmet has a good amount of dynamic lift that would wetbulb anything into heavy snow just as depicted by icon and nam. Euro is usually good but does not do well with dynamically fast pattern systems. I think the globals are going to catch up the intensity of this system. You will get a heavy 6 hour window of 1-2 hour rates. I don’t think NYC mixes at all. I think Cape Cod and eastern fork may taint a bit but this will be so dynamic though very fast moving that you’ll get good snow ratios. 10:1-15:1. it is February so storms tend to have more dynamics in the upper atmospheres and this is why it does warm up a bit but it is the snowiest month for that reason. Think of the warmer seasons when we get 2 inch thunderstorms! I think the jackpot here is Central Park up to Mahopac and east towards New Haven, CT, Providence could pick up 8-10 also. I think Central Park gets 5-8 inches out of this. All the models will start picking up the more intense system as we get closer especially the short term models. What pisses me off is wrong information. And there’s a lot of misinformation on this thread. Euro is showing 3-5 for NYC, If you don’t know the basics of dynamically and evaporative cooling please read more and post less!

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