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With such a big difference between the 0z GFS and the 0z NAM, 0z RGEM, and 12z ECMWF, I suspect that the higher-resolution models may have a better handle on the thermal profile of the atmosphere. In theory, such models should have a better handle on the small details that could make a difference in what is a marginal situation. It's probably not a coincidence that the NAM (both 3 km and 12 km) and RGEM (including the higher-resolution version) and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement. It will be interesting to see if the 0z ECMWF remains reasonably consistent with its prior run.

All said, my thinking remains little changed from this morning:

Morristown, Newark, and NYC eastward to Islip: 2"-4"
New Brunswick and Belmar: 1"-3"
Northwestern NJ across central Westchester and central Fairfield Counties northward: 3"-6"

There remains modest upward potential for Newark, NYC, and northward.

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So the gfs will either score a coup or is completely out to lunch

It’s super warm, freezing line is way upstate.

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I don’t buy the GFS thermals at all. It’s just about always too warm on these and the precip seems too light compared to the consensus. If it comes down mod to heavy, temps shouldn’t have a problem dropping to 32-33. 

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The closest event to this I can find is a more organized version of 1/20/02.  That event the surface low formed a bit too late it what was probably even more progressive flow than this is

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

With such a big difference between the 0z GFS and the 0z NAM, 0z RGEM, and 12z ECMWF, I suspect that the higher-resolution models may have a better handle on the thermal profile of the atmosphere. In theory, such models should have a better handle on the small details that could make a difference in what is a marginal situation. It's probably not a coincidence that the NAM (both 3 km and 12 km) and RGEM (including the higher-resolution version) and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement. It will be interesting to see if the 0z ECMWF remains reasonably consistent with its prior run.

All said, my thinking remains little changed from this morning:

Morristown, Newark, and NYC eastward to Islip: 2"-4"
New Brunswick and Belmar: 1"-3"
Northwestern NJ across central Westchester and central Fairfield Counties northward: 3"-6"

There remains modest upward potential for Newark, NYC, and northward.

Well put, 100% agree.

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Euro is still good for most but it's showing the more typical north shore highest totals and cutback where I am. North shore has a max of 0.6" or more liquid as snow, and down here it's about 0.4" and a drop off out towards the East End. Definitely warmed up a little where I am-to be expected. 925 temps get a little above zero for a time south of the Southern State. 0.4" liquid or more as snow goes to about the Tappan Zee bridge and hugs I-80 west in NJ, so for most north/west it shows 2-4". The best area overall this run is the north shore of Nassau and Suffolk. 

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Final call for me (and any south shore locations): 2". Could be 1" or less if rates disappoint and 3-5" if it's like the NAM. I can see how this is a nice outcome near the coast but more likely a lot of it's white rain or slop that only sticks on grass and cars. Could also have plain rain with lousy rates.

Central Park: 3.5"

Islip: 4.5"

Huntington: 6"

JFK: 2"

Hamptons/Montauk: 1"

Morristown: 5"

White Plains: 5"

Newburgh: 3"

Port Jervis: 3"

Bridgeport: 5.5"

Belmar: Less than 1"

 

 

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Looks like a solid 3-6 inch event for the metro, a little less NW, based on literally every model minus the GFS. Classic paste job too, sad it won’t last long but it could make for some really nice pics at sunrise. 

 

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..i'm not expecting much out here..all of the "future casts" show ALL rain for the south

shore/east end..we'll see but looks like a rain event for us east enders.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Downgraded to a WWA here for 3-5" of snow expected. Now watch us hit warning criteria lol.

We are really close ( as usual ) on the NAM maps above. However, I personally always stick with the lower number. Storm is short and will start as rain. How fast the changeover happens will be key.

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nam keeps shifting north with each run. Upton still seems too bullish to me

You do realize the NAM is given little weight by the professional community?

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