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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Most of Suffolk is all rain, outside of areas North of the Northern State and West of say Smithtown.

You might be right ! However too often than not this season, areas slated to get minimal snows got the most snow.

I think we'll see a plastering of snow that will look great for several hours.

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21 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

I’m about 20 miles east of that and think I’ll be mostly snow as well, but we’ll see.  

...and i'm about 7-8 miles S of you..everyone is telling me that i rain..its going to be 

interesting to see wtf happens.

35.9*..cloudy..winds light/variable, almost calm..my gut says us eastern boys rain.

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With respect to the guidance, the GFS never caught on. Even the 18z GFS fared terribly across parts of southeastern PA to the NYC metro area. My guess is that the lack of vertical resolution led to an atmospheric profile that was modeled much warmer than what actually was present. The higher resolution ECMWF, NAM, and RGEM fared much better. Below is the 2/17 18z GFS snowfall map:

GFS0217201818z.jpg

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