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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS soundings also show that the layer from 700mb to the surface is above freezing.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018021518&fh=48

The soundings show above freezing from about 950MB to surface. Not sure what you are looking out... 

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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS soundings also show that the layer from 700mb to the surface is above freezing.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018021518&fh=48

Methinks you clicked a spot about 150 miles over the ocean. Either that or you're completely disregarding the "Skewd" part of a sku-t/log p diagram

skew t at that point in time near NYC had temps at around -6 to -8 at that time stamp you linked to

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Just now, weatherbear5 said:

Methinks you clicked a spot about 150 miles over the ocean. Either that or you're completely disregarding the "Skewd" part of a sku-t/log p diagram

skew t at that point in time near NYC had temps at around -6 to -8 at that time stamp you linked to

I clicked right over NYC at 06z Sunday, but honestly whatever at this point. The BL is in the mid 30’s, and that’s in the city proper around 06z.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I clicked right over NYC at 06z Sunday, but honestly whatever at this point. The BL is in the mid 30’s, and that’s in the city proper around 06z.

Strange, the link from your post took me to 18z Sat.

Regardless, here is the SKU-T link

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2018021518&fh=60&lat=40.71&lon=-73.81&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

temps go above freezing around 975mb.

You are right about the BL though. 

 

This is one of those cases where the system needs to "create" its own cold air. It will have some low-DP air to work with initially, so we'll need it to thump to overcome the marginal airmass.

if it's going to thump, we end up snowcovered, if it's light we end up wet (at least on the Island)

 

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15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I clicked right over NYC at 06z Sunday, but honestly whatever at this point. The BL is in the mid 30’s, and that’s in the city proper around 06z.

Assuming the GFS is wrong on how light the precip is the T/Td spread at the start of the event is enough that it should be 30-32 and snowing if we have even modest rates 

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42 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The soundings show above freezing from about 950MB to surface. Not sure what you are looking out... 

I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I couldn't find any above freezing above the BL either.  I agree with you; the light precip on the GFS would be light rain or a mix on the coast with those surface temps, but if the wetter solutions verify it will be a paste bomb.  Heavier precip with that sounding would be slam dunk for snow with cooling of the boundary to near or slightly below freezing as the snow falls.

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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Weak winds in mid Feb, not a big deal. He may be right with accumulations though given BL and or the GFS is right with QPF 

The southerly flow out ahead of it is a real concern. It comes in for a whole day almost and while it’s not strong, it’ll be enough to make the airmass marginal at best on the coast. The ground is warm from the recent highs and will melt the snow from underneath. The coast will likely need heavy rates to overcome that and accumulate. Weak/sheared out like the GFS won’t be good enough. I’d expect maybe some slush at the end with something like that evolution in the city. 

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4 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Guys the GFS model is the worst model of all globals. The ukmet has a good amount of dynamic lift that would wetbulb anything into heavy snow just as depicted by icon and nam. Euro is usually good but does not do well with dynamically fast pattern systems. I think the globals are going to catch up the intensity of this system. You will get a heavy 6 hour window of 1-2 hour rates. I don’t think NYC mixes at all. I think Cape Cod and eastern fork may taint a bit but this will be so dynamic though very fast moving that you’ll get good snow ratios. 10:1-15:1. it is February so storms tend to have more dynamics in the upper atmospheres and this is why it does warm up a bit but it is the snowiest month for that reason. Think of the warmer seasons when we get 2 inch thunderstorms! I think the jackpot here is Central Park up to Mahopac and east towards New Haven, CT, Providence could pick up 8-10 also. I think Central Park gets 5-8 inches out of this. All the models will start picking up the more intense system as we get closer especially the short term models. What pisses me off is wrong information. And there’s a lot of misinformation on this thread. Euro is showing 3-5 for NYC, If you don’t know the basics of dynamically and evaporative cooling please read more and post less!

Some of this is correct. Some is probably wishcasting. But the part that’s true is the dynamic cooling and wet bulbing under heavier rates. It will all depend on where the heavier banding sets up. Even the coast can see a decent thump if we get under good banding. That holds true for pretty much anywhere other then we’ll inland (75 plus miles) or the few areas above 1000’. Anyone claiming final calls at this lead time is kidding themselves. Banding setup is a now cast phenomenon. 

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly how you could get it done. And that’s why I caution anyone going with low totals for the coast.

Yupp, and a lot of times the areas kissing the changeover line in these events jackpot. I’d garner I-95 from Philly to NYC will do quite well from this. 4-8” with no changeover is looking likely. Goofus is lost by discounting the cooling that will occur with these rates.

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