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I'm just not enthused about this one, hopefully I'm wrong. To me either this will be a stronger system that drives more warm air in and snows more inland/rain or slop for the city and coast, or it's a weaker couple or few inch system that might still have problems around the city due to a marginal airmass. I'm not thrilled about the southerly flow out ahead of this either-for the coast it might be all snow but only accumulate a little on cold surfaces and be gone soon after. Still some time for adjustments. I wouldn't go higher than 2-3" for anyone in the city or near the coast. Inland areas might have 4-5" if enough precip makes it there. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'm just not enthused about this one, hopefully I'm wrong. To me either this will be a stronger system that drives more warm air in and snows more inland/rain or slop for the city and coast, or it's a weaker couple or few inch system that might still have problems around the city due to a marginal airmass. I'm not thrilled about the southerly flow out ahead of this either-for the coast it might be all snow but only accumulate a little on cold surfaces and be gone soon after. Still some time for adjustments. I wouldn't go higher than 2-3" for anyone in the city or near the coast. Inland areas might have 4-5" if enough precip makes it there. 

I think the more amped rain scenario is much more likely. Like the past few systems this thing will be juiced. I would really want to be 50 miles NW of the city and 500’ + 

this has south shore rain north shore snow written all over it

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'm just not enthused about this one, hopefully I'm wrong. To me either this will be a stronger system that drives more warm air in and snows more inland/rain or slop for the city and coast, or it's a weaker couple or few inch system that might still have problems around the city due to a marginal airmass. I'm not thrilled about the southerly flow out ahead of this either-for the coast it might be all snow but only accumulate a little on cold surfaces and be gone soon after. Still some time for adjustments. I wouldn't go higher than 2-3" for anyone in the city or near the coast. Inland areas might have 4-5" if enough precip makes it there. 

It’s really tricky.  I hate forecasting rain in a scenario like this where a system is tracking towards the ENE south of us this late in the season.  The models really have no mid level lows overheard and no layer above 0C other than the BL.  It’s pretty common to see them mistake that being too warm.  Especially for the 5 boroughs 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think the more amped rain scenario is much more likely. Like the past few systems this thing will be juiced. I would really want to be 50 miles NW of the city and 500’ + 

this has south shore rain north shore snow written all over it

I am more worried about a south shift with the negative pna

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24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Dews will be lower too causing us to wetbulb. That track is snow for the city verbatim. The problem would be a more amped system 

The trough itself is actually fairly amplified, even on the GFS. The issue is whether or not that shortwave can get ahead of the main trough enough so that it lifts North and creates the storm. If that doesn't happen, that trough will just kick whatever energy there is off the mid-atlantic coast with minimal impacts.

sketched_5a85caa81a0cf.png

sketched_5a85cad81c748.png

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is snow to rain to snow for the coast

 

Warmer on this run

Inland areas do well

Pretty much as I thought. This has the hallmarks to me of being a couple or few inch event at most near the coast and even that is reliant on it being weak enough not to torch everything but strong enough to have heavier rates and accumulate. Down here we’re on a very tight rope. I’d feel best if I was up near I-84 and had some elevation. 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro may continue to correct north through the 12z Saturday run. But can see how much of a move north with the heaviest snowfall it made in just 24 hrs. 

 

 

 

 

I think the mid-levels and surface temps have a lot do with that. Will need heavy rates to help bring down that cold air to even make those numbers verify.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

You can see how much further north the 925mb freeze line pushed in the last 24 hrs.

 

ecmwf_t925_nj_12.thumb.png.6cad31083e0c8bbe29eaae7acebd7ec3.png

ecmwf_t925_nj_16.thumb.png.0c5a7eda90154c11b53a16ffbd1ee5c6.png

 

 

 

 

 

925 temps are the key. However, most precip falls between 0Z and 6Z.  Take a look at E LI at 06Z and the temps are lower because precip rates are likely still better out there at that time... 

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see how much further north the 925mb freeze line pushed in the last 24 hrs.

 

ecmwf_t925_nj_12.thumb.png.6cad31083e0c8bbe29eaae7acebd7ec3.png

ecmwf_t925_nj_16.thumb.png.0c5a7eda90154c11b53a16ffbd1ee5c6.png

 

 

 

 

 

It just makes no sense to me with the track of the 925 low.  It’s basically centered off Cape May but has an inordinate elongation to the north which causes a warm nose despite the lows all tracking well south of the area.  It would probably be more sleet than rain if it did happen but overall to me this is mostly snow as shown now.  I’ve never really seen rain occur on a track like this except in November or early December 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We haven't really seen a SE ridge this strong in winter either since January 8th. So warmth is finding a way into situations that may have been more favorable in the past.

On second look it may be that the Euro is trying to develop an inverted trof across western to central Long Island.  That could be the reason for that bulge in the thermals north of the 850-925 lows 

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17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

amazing how different same output is on 2 sites....

eps_snow_m_nyc_31.png

I believe it's because Stormvista takes melting into account, I'm not sure about WxBell. In other words, some of what WxBell is showing as accumulating snow is actually white rain thanks to the BL being a few degrees above freezing. 

I will stick with my earlier prediction of 2-4" of white paste for the interior and a bit less Southeast of there thanks to warm temps and possible mixing, especially for the South shore and E LI.

I could see someone getting 5-6" out of this, but again I believe that's the exception rather than the rule.

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