ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Extended Reggie is still pretty far south...mostly a 1-3" event for SNE. Though it is kind of bizarre....tries to set up a big IVT into downeast Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 it's interesting just considering the NAM over the last 24 or so hour's worth of runs ...it's gone from an advisory fluff thing to more of a low-end warning blue bomb.. Very spring like event frankly - ... won't go there as I know it will piss off the locals... but, the 2-m temps sore in the low to mid 40s post rapid clearing and left over d-slope flow by 18z Sunday... with drippy glop to almost 6" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 If the NAM were to verify..you'd even have to consider some utility headaches in a stripe down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Extended Reggie is still pretty far south...mostly a 1-3" event for SNE. Though it is kind of bizarre....tries to set up a big IVT into downeast Maine. Could you post the image please?. I can't get the trick to work on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Is Reggie designed to be accurate beyond 24-36 hours let alone 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Here is the S/W in the flow on the NAM's 12z 00 hour frame ... center-top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's interesting just considering the NAM over the last 24 or so hour's worth of runs ...it's gone from an advisory fluff thing to more of a low-end warning blue bomb.. Very spring like event frankly - ... won't go there as I know it will piss off the locals... but, the 2-m temps sore in the low to mid 40s post rapid clearing and left over d-slope flow by 18z Sunday... with drippy glop to almost 6" or more. We had a similar type system you describe in March 1997...believe it was March 10, 1997. Storm rolled in around 3am as a predicted 1-3/2-4" type deal...kind of blew up a bit more than expected S of LI and we it dumped near 6" of fluff. Temps were about 26-28F early that morning. The snow was over by 9am....we ended up with a snow day out of it. By 11am, no pavement had any snow left on it rendering the shoveling I did at 8-9am as a superfluous exercise. We soared into the low to middle 40s (prob high 40s in the downslope spots) with dripping all afternoon. By nightfall, a crust reformed on top of the snow, which was now abut 2 inches deep. You would have never known it was once 6 inches of picturesque fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Is Reggie designed to be accurate beyond 24-36 hours let alone 84? No, or if it is, it doesn't perform well anyway. These shorter term models should really only be given much weight once inside of 36 hours...even at 48 hours, the RGEM has its issues. It is still not totally useless though to look at them...especialy if you have a system where the mesoscale and/or non-hydrostatic aspects of the modesl may have an advantage. You just have to remember the overall larger scale synoptic are usually inferior to globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We had a similar type system you describe in March 1997...believe it was March 10, 1997. Storm rolled in around 3am as a predicted 1-3/2-4" type deal...kind of blew up a bit more than expected S of LI and we it dumped near 6" of fluff. Temps were about 26-28F early that morning. The snow was over by 9am....we ended up with a snow day out of it. By 11am, no pavement had any snow left on it rendering the shoveling I did at 8-9am as a superfluous exercise. We soared into the low to middle 40s (prob high 40s in the downslope spots) with dripping all afternoon. By nightfall, a crust reformed on top of the snow, which was now abut 2 inches deep. You would have never known it was once 6 inches of picturesque fluff. Yeah it does sound like your describing THIS nam's look ... obviously not exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS with a rather benign solution. Advisory levels S of i-90 with highest amounts along the south coast. Very little N of MA/VT/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS with a rather benign solution. Advisory levels S of i-90 with highest amounts along the south coast. Very little N of MA/VT/NH border. CMC is meh too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS and the Canadian both look rather pedestrian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I was a bit shocked to see the NAM so intense back this way given how late it gets the 925 and 850 lows developing, however, the NAM has incredibly intense 700mb VV's and a really solid strip of frontogenesis. The NAM would be a total crusher out east. There is a strip of really above average SST's just off the coast and I think this strip has really helped to enhance these "smaller" events this winter. We have seen several of what appeared to be small events overperform and one of my theories is due to this pocket of higher SSTA's. Looks like the track of the system too would go right over these waters and that would not only further enhance frontogenesis but develop some instability to further enhance snowfall intensity potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 bomb cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I’d still stay the course for now. Something between NAM and gfs certainly is feasible. Call me crazy if I don’t let the gfs and gem sway me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’d still stay the course for now. Something between NAM and gfs certainly is feasible. Call me crazy if I don’t let the gfs and gem sway me. Emotionally invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’d still stay the course for now. Something between NAM and gfs certainly is feasible. Call me crazy if I don’t let the gfs and gem sway me. Crazy. Obviously not really. GFS hasn't handled this very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Euro was pretty strong at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Crazy. Obviously not really. GFS hasn't handled this very well. Really? I thought it's performance has been top-notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Well lock it in as I won’t be around, boy this looks like a very picturesque snowfall too. Better snap pics as it’ll melt by dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4-8” is locked . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The GFS is even less impressive with the development of the 925/850 lows and is a bit further south and east but still suggests the possibility for a solid hit...just a matter of track/placement. I think this is going to be a pretty solid hit favoring eastern CT/RI and into portions of SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I don’t know... outside of the useless NAM...12z has been kind of meh so far. Lets hope the euro holds anyway. I’m not impressed so far. The GFS to me just looks like it never gets going and the end result is just lighter snows for the duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Decent s/w under us on the GFS and the soundings aren't bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The queens are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I wonder how well we'll be able to do with snowgrowth and ratios. With southwesterly flow in the low and mid-levels we do pump in some WAA and see temps aloft warm. Looks like some sneaky warm air in the 700mb level could work in which could hurt snow production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder how well we'll be able to do with snowgrowth and ratios. With southwesterly flow in the low and mid-levels we do pump in some WAA and see temps aloft warm. Looks like some sneaky warm air in the 700mb level could work in which could hurt snow production. Plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Plenty cold. Looked like on the Waterbury sounding from NAM bufkit the -10 line started to tickle the SGZ and 700mb temps warmed up to around -7C but then I guess they cool off quite quickly. But I overall like how things look. I think there will be a solid 6-10'' zone somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Decent s/w under us on the GFS and the soundings aren't bad either. 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The queens are out. Yep...watch the track of the vortmax. This is pretty classic. GGEM would actually argue for snow up into CNE at least with that track. It's just kind of rounded with the shortwave...but that's something I'd expect them to have a bias toward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Even Ginx's ICONically is more subdued than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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