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Sunday the 18th ... storm idea/early thoughts...


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Based on the latest models runs over the past 24 hours I've decided to bump up numbers to 4-8. I was contemplating going as high as 5-9 but decided against it after seeing some 18Z runs and HRRR backing off a bit.

 02_17.18_snow_forecast_2.thumb.jpg.d55ca205e85f765e6c906c97781d7bdd.jpg

You should make a new thread and put all your verification maps in it.

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10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

GFS isn't just warm at the surface. What is considered the pressure level where the BL typically ends?

typically you'd go up to around 900/925 for top of BL. GFS is def pretty warm there. Gets IJD to above freezing slightly at 950mb and -1C at 900. I don't think you'll see rain though. I'd sell that I think. Doesn't have much support. 

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Since 0z, the RGEM has gotten more meh with every run.  Yet the Euro has improved from 0z.

The best rgem run was actually 06z. Had almost all of SNE over half inch of qpf. Then each run got a little less impressive. But the 18z run is still better than last nights 00z run. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

typically you'd go up to around 900/925 for top of BL. GFS is def pretty warm there. Gets IJD to above freezing slightly at 950mb and -1C at 900. I don't think you'll see rain though. I'd sell that I think. Doesn't have much support. 

RGEM gets IJD to 0c at 925 hpa. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Thinking we can get 2-4" on the mountain tonight.

HRRR keeps getting better and is now up to 0.3" QPF for the mountain. 

Different from other SNE coastal systems with sharp cut-offs, this looks like a widespread light snow event for much of NNE.

 

Lol I remember your Euro OTL post when it showed that a day or so ago.  Save a horse 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Thinking we can get 2-4" on the mountain tonight.

HRRR keeps getting better and is now up to 0.3" QPF for the mountain. 

Different from other SNE coastal systems with sharp cut-offs, this looks like a widespread light snow event for much of NNE.

 

This one has a bit of a disconnect between best upper air support and sfc forcing. If it didn't we'd prob be talking a very potent system that brings widespread 6-10/8-12. 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Prototypical  save a horse storm. 

 

Ya. Don’t get the waffling by some on every single run from every single piece of information....theres way too much guidance out there nowadays, it’s to a fault if you cant see the big picture well. Been 4-8” for many days now. Some lollies to 10”.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol I remember your Euro OTL post when it showed that a day or so ago.  Save a horse 

Yup definitely getting it done but sort of for a different reason than I was thinking, which is why I nixed the Euro run a couple days ago.  

Not so much that we are on the edge of the main "coastal storm" but that there's enough upper level support for widespread light snows way away from the actual surface low track.  

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This one has a bit of a disconnect between best upper air support and sfc forcing. If it didn't we'd prob be talking a very potent system that brings widespread 6-10/8-12. 

Yeah has that larger UL light snow look over an expansive area, and maybe I'm looking at it wrong but H5 and H7 seem a bit north of where say south of the Pike would like them for a big ticket event like you said.  Seems more general upper level support in CNE/NNE but the best lower level fronto stuff is down near Ginxy's latitude.  

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