CT Rain Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK why Ryan is worried about snow growth. His boxing day melt still affects him to this day. 180218/0100Z 13 12005KT 30.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 180218/0200Z 14 13005KT 31.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 180218/0300Z 15 13006KT 31.9F SNOW 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095 12:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 180218/0400Z 16 14006KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 11:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 180218/0500Z 17 11004KT 32.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100 11:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 180218/0600Z 18 06003KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 11:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 180218/0700Z 19 05003KT 32.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 11:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 180218/0800Z 20 36003KT 32.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 11:1| 6.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0 180218/0900Z 21 32004KT 32.3F SNOW 23:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 12:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0 180218/1000Z 22 31006KT 32.3F SNOW 25:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 13:1| 8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 180218/1100Z 23 31007KT 32.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 13:1| 9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0 180218/1200Z 24 30009KT 31.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 13:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 100| 0| 0 lol I'm not worried about it - but it's not optimal snow growth. It's fine. Adequate. Nothing on those soundings suggests a crazy fluff band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 For this guy here about the CSI layer depth what is a good CSI depth and when you see shadings for like 100-150mb and 200-300mb etc, does that mean CSI depth of the lowest 100-150mb of the atmosphere lowest 200-300mb of the atmosphere, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Wow....RGEM and GFS are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow....RGEM and GFS are warm. just looked at GFS bufkit sounding for BDL and it switched BDL over to rain lol. Think it's a bit too warm there in the BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: just looked at GFS bufkit sounding for BDL and it switched BDL over to rain lol. Think it's a bit too warm there in the BL On this one, GFS has been the warm, weak outlier from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: just looked at GFS bufkit sounding for BDL and it switched BDL over to rain lol. Think it's a bit too warm there in the BL Yea, BS. I'm actually using the First Call for the Final call....no changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: On this one, GFS has been the warm, weak outlier from the get go. I never really bought into the GFS on this one. I think there were strong signals for a moderate type storm but the GFS just doesn't have the resolution or skill to catch on. The GFS also tends to be on the warmer side in the BL at times and I think this is the case. Perhaps coastal CT could flirt with mixing which I think is possible given the more southerly component to the flow but nothing makes me believe we see that warmth move well inland...unless this system all of a sudden make a substantial jump north 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, BS. I'm actually using the First Call for the Final call....no changes. Same...5-8'' across much of CT with 3-5'' immediate shore and I went 3-5'' for NW CT but I did have concerns as to whether they would get into the heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I never really bought into the GFS on this one. I think there were strong signals for a moderate type storm but the GFS just doesn't have the resolution or skill to catch on. The GFS also tends to be on the warmer side in the BL at times and I think this is the case. Perhaps coastal CT could flirt with mixing which I think is possible given the more southerly component to the flow but nothing makes me believe we see that warmth move well inland...unless this system all of a sudden make a substantial jump north Same...5-8'' across much of CT with 3-5'' immediate shore and I went 3-5'' for NW CT but I did have concerns as to whether they would get into the heavy snows. As usual, I think the heaviest snows will be within 50 miles of the rain/snow line. Have to get near it in setups like this to see the best snows. Did I just become Capt. Obvioius? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Euro is juiced. A tad warmer so might be issues s coast, but could be a paste thunp there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Hopefully the Mid-Coast can score. Still several inches here at Pit2 right now. A little padding will help with the mild-up next week. As far as Pit1 goes, we were down to less than 50% coverage so even a couple will make it look like winter again. 30* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: As usual, I think the heaviest snows will be within 50 miles of the rain/snow line. Have to get near it in setups like this to see the best snows. Did I just become Capt. Obvioius? There will probably be a band of really heavy snow where the strongest fronto/VV's overlap which would likely be well north of the R/S line. Could also get some enhancement from a coastal front should one setup which does seem like a legit possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Euro is a nice hit for a lot of you...0.5"+ for pretty much all of SNE it looks like. 0.70" or more from BDL to BOS and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Power outages tonight in southern areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is juiced. A tad warmer so might be issues s coast, but could be a paste thunp there too. Difficult forecast down there, bc in my mind the south coast is the precip max for this. Should see the best of the 850 mb fronto on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Yeah euro just went wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah euro just went wild. Not for nothing but we called this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Power outages tonight in southern areas? winds? or wet snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Not for nothing but we called this yesterday. What is the big deal? Up to 8" in favored southern areas? Hasn't this been expected for days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow....RGEM and GFS are warm. Keep riding the elephants. Reggie is cold . Hi res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Power outages tonight in southern areas? I could see that. I mentioned maybe some damage earlier. Pasty there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Thinking even at elevation we paste . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Keep riding the elephants. Reggie is cold . Hi res Yea, tossed....was just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the big deal? Up to 8" in favored southern areas? Hasn't this been expected for days? Uhm euro is first DC to Portland SECS since early January. Safe to say this wasn’t widely expected, as recently as 6 hrs ago. lolli’s closer 12” and 10”+ amounts look to cover a broad area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the big deal? Up to 8" in favored southern areas? Hasn't this been expected for days? Euro to me looks more like a widespread 5-10" in SNE, even up into SVT over to the Lakes Region. Euro has that QPF gradient that screams band from MPM to Dendrite...but just anecdotal using QPF for fluff banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Euro to me looks more like a widespread 5-10" in SNE, even up into SVT over to the Lakes Region. Euro has that QPF gradient that screams band from MPM to Dendrite...but just anecdotal using QPF for fluff banding. -8C 850 right over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Uhm euro is first DC to Portland SECS since early January. Safe to say this wasn’t widely expected, as recently as 6 hrs ago. Doesn't look much different to me around here. Upped amounts like 2" across the area. Little more than noise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thinking even at elevation we paste . It doesn't look pasty for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 My internet coverage is zonked here....someone post the EURO H7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Uhm euro is first DC to Portland SECS since early January. Safe to say this wasn’t widely expected, as recently as 6 hrs ago. Just a couple of days ago TWC winter storm experts were calling for 1-3 and downplaying the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: -8C 850 right over my head. Ha done deal then. But honestly there are plenty of events where the best banding seems to be where the model thinks the QPF gradient is on the N/W side. The EURO Kuchie snow maps actually make sense in this one...highlighting the colder temperatures in the higher terrain, with heaviest snowfall amounts in spots like NW NJ, S.Catskills, NW/NE CT, Berks, Orh Hills up into your area in NH. Just has lower ratios coastal plain and CT Valley so less snowfall with same or even more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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