hammerz_nailz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 34 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Literally nothing has shown that. 12-15cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Yes it has...kinda like the old Euro of yesteryear... A wolf blitzer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Congrats southerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 CTmcRain was worried about the 0z 3k nam qpf cutback....well don’t worry chief weenie, 6z ramped back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 rgem juiced up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Quote Overview... WV imagery suggests that the arctic wave with Northwest Territories origins is moving through WY/NE, and is phasing with very weak S stream stretched vort-max. Even though this phasing occurs, and the DT drops as low as 550mb, it continues to be embedded within the progressive zonal jet, hence why between 12Z and 00Z today it shifts from NE to the E coast and remains open. The wave`s approach to the mid-Atlantic yields rapid cyclogenesis and deepening offshore, as the resulting low pres deepens at a rate roughly exceeding 1mb/hr. As it deepens, models have settled on a track that takes the low pres generally about 50nm S of the 40/70 Benchmark. Given the wave remains open and embedded within the strong jet, it is very progressive, hence why most impacts will fall during the overnight hours. Given the feature has some S stream influence, it will carry with it a modest PWAT plume around 0.75 inches (1 std deviation above mid Feb climatological values). Also, with S flow, BL temps will be key, as some marine influence could yield a change to rain, and lower SLRs to the N, mainly along the S coast, Cape/Islands. The key will be the two potential banding setups: 1) mid lvl f-gen/deformation within the core of the open wave, yielding strong omega in the DGZ furthest N between H7-H8 and 2) lower lvl coastal front, as marginal, marine-influenced temps will try to shift inland. The former is likely to setup further inland while the other could feature banding along the S coast, and final location will help to pinpoint peak banding. Timing... With good synoptic scale agreement now, can generally agree that precip onset occurs as mainly light snow between 01Z-03Z (8pm-10pm), peaking mainly 03Z-09Z (10pm-4am), then tapering off between 09Z-11Z (4am-6am). Timing of any change/shift to RA will occur during the peak period. Snowfall/Amounts... With modest PWAT plume and potential for banding. Total QPF amounts between 0.30 mainly across NW away from peak omega, to +0.6. SLRs will not be as high as previous storms given the influence of warmer marine air before precip onset and some areas where lift is actually below the DGZ. In peak banding, which lines up from central CT-central RI-SE MA, will use SLRs 12-15, with generally 12 or less on either side. This suggests a risk for a narrow band of 6-8in in the region mentioned above with 4-6in just outside, dropping toward NW MA. Watches will be shifted to warnings as the areas where 6+ are forecast generally fall within the current watch regime, with advisories to buffer. Within this area where banding/omega signal is strongest, will also likely see 1-2in/hr snowfall rates. Lingering uncertainty... With the possibility of at least two banding setups, the overall area of 6+ inches could ultimately be slightly wider or even slightly narrower than current warnings suggest. This is especially true along the S coast, where marine influence will lead to lower SLRs and snowfall totals as rainfall mixes in. Impacts... Given the wetter, heavier nature of the snow, cannot rule out some isolated power outages especially along the S coast. Snowfall rates of 1-2in/hr will likely lead to hazardous road conditions when untreated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats southerners. 1-2" for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: CTmcRain was worried about the 0z 3k nam qpf cutback....well don’t worry chief weenie, 6z ramped back up. CTRAINQUEEN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: CTRAINQUEEN? He’ll be better served if we drew his map for him while he sipped on Pina Coladas in a recliner. He gon get grey hairs at a very early stage if he keeps this up but thankfully, for him, nam going away soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 36 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 1-2" for you? perhaps. im about to leave for pit2....expecting 0-3 up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Could be a TOL-Ginx-Foxboro little jack based in elevation. Otherwise looks like a paste job in many lower el spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could be a TOL-Ginx-Foxboro little jack based in elevation. Otherwise looks like a paste job in many lower el spots. Gonna be some 8-9" lollis. Prob 18 or 20 to 1 fluff. Esp where temps are like 30 or colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna be some 8-9" lollis. Prob 18 or 20 to 1 fluff. Esp where temps are like 30 or colder. Yeah I think so. Maybe even further north that that too. I think a lot of areas should be in that 4-7 range. Many will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 If I had virtual crayons, my 6-8” zone would be NWNJ and drawing it ENE across SENY thru I84 into NRI and onto the mecca of snowfall jackpots, SEMA. In this area I can see a 10 burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Major winter storm sandwiched in perfectly between a torch and a record breaking furnace that wipes out snow packs into Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Interesting how much colder the hi res RGEM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Major winter storm sandwiched in perfectly between a torch and a record breaking furnace that wipes out snow packs into Canada I wouldn’t say major, but a good snow, sure. Half of it or more gone by dinner tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 So if you had to be in Littleton NH by 10am and were starting from near Danbury chances are it won't be the regular ~5hour trip so what time would you leave? Of course, the only snow/rotten driving conditions of the last few weeks and I have to be out in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: So if you had to be in Littleton NH by 10am and were starting from near Danbury chances are it won't be the regular ~5hour trip so what time would you leave? Of course, the only snow/rotten driving conditions of the last few weeks and I have to be out in it Sorry for having to be in Littleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Sorry for having to be in Littleton. Haha that's not fair I like it up there. Great mountain biking, not terrible skiing (really good if you're into the backcountry thing), good beer, affordable living and easy access out when you need it. It's a much more palatable place than it was even just a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Sorry for having to be in Littleton. What’s wrong with it? I mean I wouldn’t want to live there, but I liked Littleton as a place to visit; it’s a quaint ski town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: What’s wrong with it? I mean I wouldn’t want to live there, but I liked Littleton as a to visit Littleton; it’s a quaint ski town. Downslope pit of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Yeah...just a joke guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Interesting how much colder the hi res RGEM is. I’m usually on the warm side in here, but I think SE MA to the cape will paste here. Only issue is BL—strong VV should effectively mix the cold air/lower dews down to the surface. I think they stay all snow, but admittedly confidence low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: I’m usually the warm side in here, but I think SE MA to the cape will paste here. Only issue is BL—strong VV should effectively mix the cold air/lower dews down to the surface. I think they stay snow, but admittedly confidence low... I think they will, esp canal and just NW. Maybe one of those deals where if rates lighten they creep to 33-34 and don't accumulate much, but guidance has a good 3-4hr thump there to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn’t say major, but a good snow, sure. Half of it or more gone by dinner tomorrow. It’ll be completely gone along the highway and any sunny exposed south facing slopes by nightfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’ll be completely gone along the highway and any sunny exposed south facing slopes by nightfall Enjoy it when it happens. Here's to some March fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think they will, esp canal and just NW. Maybe one of those deals where if rates lighten they creep to 33-34 and don't accumulate much, but guidance has a good 3-4hr thump there to start. Agreed. But part of the reason I think this verifies all snow down there is I don’t really see rates lightening. Looks like moderate + rates for duration. Timing obviously couldn’t be any better either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Calling for 6" at KBOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Call me crazy but I think SE MA/ Cape is the jack for this. 8”-12” of paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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