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Sunday the 18th ... storm idea/early thoughts...


Typhoon Tip

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def the first really good RPM run...pretty good area of 6"+...we'll see if the RGEM (another meso) tries to ramp up at 18z. I would weight that a lote more than the RPM.

 

 

mgWeb_WRF_20180216-180000_ANE_ECONUS_F00470000_PwinterSnow_R12km.gif

I wonder if that snow up here is from what is happening or just happened?

When did that initialize? 17z... probably includes today's snow.

We just picked up like 3-4" of paste at the mountain in a 2-3 hour onslaught.  Would love to grab another 3-4" like the RPM shows but I think that's probably including what just happened?

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I wonder if that snow up here is from what is happening or just happened?

When did that initialize? 17z... probably includes today's snow.

We just picked up like 3-4" of paste at the mountain in a 2-3 hour onslaught.  Would love to grab another 3-4" like the RPM shows but I think that's probably including what just happened?

I was surprised no chatter from you last night about that. Nice dump

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Bufkit rations for the NAM show the progression to great snow growth 

SNOW   10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051    9:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
180218/0600Z  36  08003KT  32.3F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067    9:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
180218/0700Z  37  06003KT  32.1F  SNOW   17:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047   10:1|  2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25  100|  0|  0
180218/0800Z  38  03003KT  32.1F  SNOW   20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   12:1|  3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0
180218/0900Z  39  36005KT  32.3F  SNOW   23:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065   14:1|  4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
180218/1000Z  40  36005KT  32.3F  SNOW   21:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   14:1|  5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 
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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z GFS looked even better with the s/w.

Really deep saturated snowgrowth soundings too...these are like 200-250mb deep if we are going roughly -10C to -18C....but you could even use a bit warmer since we have more salt nuclei in our soundings than most of the country.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Really deep saturated snowgrowth soundings too...these are like 200-250mb deep if we are going roughly -10C to -18C....but you could even use a bit warmer since we have more salt nuclei in our soundings than most of the country.

Some internal discussion about BOS and temps near 33 helping to reduce amounts a tad. I dunno..maybe? But I feel like as shown..could be one of those things where they hover near 32 and do just fine. Pretty cold just off the deck and little marine inflow. Help to Tw to 32 with good snow growth.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Some internal discussion about BOS and temps near 33 helping to reduce amounts a tad. I dunno..maybe? But I feel like as shown..could be one of those things where they hover near 32 and do just fine. Pretty cold just off the deck and little marine inflow. Help to Tw to 32 with good snow growth.

Might be one of those things that messes with Logan out in the harbor maybe? But yeah, like even Boston common I can't see being that affected. I suppose the lowest spots could lose a little bit early on with the marginal temps, but it seems like everyone is going to quickly get to freezing or below with the cold off the deck.

18z GFS has 950mb at -2C at BOS at 06z...18z NAM had -2.5C. That's not going to support 33-34F at the sfc if the snow is coming down with any real intensity. You'd prob have to keep it like 1 mile or higher vis.

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And 900mb is downright frigid...like -5C. We saw this in the March 2013 firehose event...everyone was scared of sfc temps but it was really cold at 900-950 so when it came down hard, it had no problem getting to 30-31.

 

Obviously you need the rates though...if it stays light, then it will be uglier.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Might be one of those things that messes with Logan out in the harbor maybe? But yeah, like even Boston common I can't see being that affected. I suppose the lowest spots could lose a little bit early on with the marginal temps, but it seems like everyone is going to quickly get to freezing or below with the cold off the deck.

18z GFS has 950mb at -2C at BOS at 06z...18z NAM had -2.5C. That's not going to support 33-34F at the sfc if the snow is coming down with any real intensity. You'd prob have to keep it like 1 mile or higher vis.

Right, that is plenty cold too. Well I have my thoughts...we'll see how it goes. I feel like the RGEM is too warm in many areas.

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it always seems to do that, Will ...in tightish to events... Not a statement or knock on the tool, but, I'm wondering if it's just better resolving the discrete baroclinicity that really should be closer to LI than that southern shift stuff...

I mentioned the concepts surrounding that yesterday but I haven't hit it today very hard, because it is another situation where the short terms runs are flying in the face of theoretics...  Less there's something they're seeing we're not .heh

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