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Sunday the 18th ... storm idea/early thoughts...


Typhoon Tip

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s  what I mean. Just have to weigh it accordingly.  Anyways the mid levels will keep the queens in check with this one. 

Yea I think this will be an overperformer. Timing is favorable with storm ramping up after sunset. The door is still open for more PV interaction as well. - AO argues for more PV phasing. I think the risk is in favor of the guidance consensus deepening this a bit more into go time...

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is the most feeble model now for snow. Go figure after what it was doing yesterday. RGEM/GFS/GGEM have all bumped north at 12z...opposite direction of the NAM trend.

The NAM has been moving around quite a bit.  When it’s doing that from 72 hours on in its usually an indication it can be tossed on that event until you’re inside 18-24.  It usually drum beats when it’s handling things well

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10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I would still take the ukmet and run.

It's been pretty darn consistent for like 4-5 runs now for SNE (it's varied a little more on northern extent up in NNE). If Euro agrees with it again more or less, then we can prob lock it in. Maybe shave a little off since Ukie's been a little juicier than Euro, but not by much.

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's been pretty darn consistent for like 4-5 runs now for SNE (it's varied a little more on northern extent up in NNE). If Euro agrees with it again more or less, then we can prob lock it in. Maybe shave a little off since Ukie's been a little juicier than Euro, but not by much.

She's tasty.

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