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showmethesnow

Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Not bailing. I'll track this to the bitter end. But I think the writing is on the wall for a bitter end. Im not a stick my head in the sand person. If it's good it's good but if it looks bad I'm not gonna just grip hope and say it's ok. It's just snow we will be alright lol. 

I've said all week the typical error bias with this kind of setup is for guidance to adjust north the last 36 hours. So when that exact thing starts to show up I can't then ignore the evidence. Its universal across all guidance.  There was a reason I said I wanted the best snow to be just south of us heading into the final 36 hours.   How often once the north trend starts at the last minute does it reverse itself?  I'll hold out hope for some quick thumpage before the warm layer takes over but I think our hope for a significant event (2-4" cities 3-6 up here) is fading away. That looks like it's up in PA now. And not even southern PA it might end up along 81/78 from Harrisburg to Allentown. That was over us just 2 runs ago. Here is how the real snow band has shifted the last 2 runs 

 

IMG_4150.thumb.PNG.69c8e4d146999d9b292c6dd81f9dce33.PNGIMG_4152.thumb.PNG.5a4d56cdd8b71dad8117149734d4240c.PNGIMG_4153.thumb.PNG.03db496185e6356236e12c4ab0d91851.PNG

tell me you don't see where that's clearly headed...the real snow band isn't even close to us anymore really it's shifting well up into PA and we're left praying for scraps from convective cooling and banding to get a slushy accumulation before it goes to rain  

 

I know it' an imby game. But the 81 corridor still looks good. We have been so snow starved out this way though so I am expecting disappointment. :)

I am down to 24/20 this morning. 

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2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I know it' an imby game. But the 81 corridor still looks good. We have been so snow starved out this way though so I am expecting disappointment. :)

I am down to 24/20 this morning. 

Looks good for what, an inch?  That map has us - maybe - in the 2" range and that doesn't even account for ****ty ratios and snow that melts on contact.  Add in the bright sunshine today utterly destroying the low-level and surface, and we are ripe for non-accumulating snow, if it even snows at all.  You are north of me some and have a better shot, but I see little chance of eclipsing a inch of slush, even on the grass.  This looks like another POS event to throw on the ever-growing pile from this winter.

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45 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Looks good for what, an inch?  That map has us - maybe - in the 2" range and that doesn't even account for ****ty rates and snow that melts on contact.  Add in the bright sunshine today utterly destroying the low-level and surface, and we are ripe for non-accumulating snow, if it even snows at all.  You are north of me some and have a better shot, but I see little chance of eclipsing a inch of slush, even on the grass.  This looks like another POS event to throw on the ever-growing pile from this winter.

Pretty sharp cutoff through our area in all honesty. Up by me most models are showing 2-4 with less to the S/E of Winchester. Who knows at this point? It's a nowcast situation once again.

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I've only started paying attention to the Swiss model recently, but it has been good with surface temps in the past.  It's a little colder than the 3k NAM.  The high resolution snow depth map really shows the benefit of elevation.  This is the 06z run.

7trBXJ5.png

Fwiw, the 06z run is a little better than 00z for places north of DC (especially those with elevation) and a little worse for those SE of DC.

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I've only started paying attention to the Swiss model recently, but it has been good with surface temps in the past.  It's a little colder than the 3k NAM.  The high resolution snow depth map really shows the benefit of elevation.  This is the 06z run.
7trBXJ5.png&key=4d5c475d82e88a8a9f30d6d1d1420520e031345c6e7d33a8d0e2001462e306a1
Fwiw, the 06z run is a little better than 00z for places north of DC (especially those with elevation) and a little worse for those SE of DC.

Amazing how easy it is to see the Parrs Ridge favored areas on that map .


.

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Last night's 00z RGEM ensemble.  Not as good as 12z, but if you account for the lower resolution it's not too far from the Swiss model I posted above.  It's amazing to think that it's only a matter of time before we're able to run ensembles at the resolution of the Swiss model.

njSwNH7.png

hMVyeWk.png

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23 minutes ago, mappy said:

Amazing how easy it is to see the Parrs Ridge favored areas on that map .

It also recognizes my little Fozz hill which is sweet. 

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10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

12Z NAM looks much better for the northern burbs. HEAVY thump on this run.

850mb temps look better for a lot of us compared to the 6z run, which is nice to see.

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