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Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?


showmethesnow

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38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've been hoping for 2" at least. Still in the game for that. I'll get rained on for a time as well. Was hoping to avoid that. Is what it is. 

Congrats on your snow. My bar is a few slushy asteroids on top of my car.

My advice to folks craving snow:

Call in sick. Get in your car. Drive west. Jefferson County in West Virginia may get 3 inches. Its only 90 minutes away. Get your fix.

Get on Rt 28, follow it to Rt 7 then Rt 9.

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8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Congrats on your snow. My bar is a few slushy asteroids on top of my car.

My advice to folks craving snow:

Call in sick. Get in your car. Drive west. Jefferson County in West Virginia may get 3 inches. Its only 90 minutes away. Get your fix.

Get on Rt 28, follow it to Rt 7 then Rt 9.

Then head to Charlestown and put $500 on black.

im gonna have to chase this year it appears. Next snowstorm with 4”+ potential I’m gonna have to take your advice. 

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28 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Congrats on your snow. My bar is a few slushy asteroids on top of my car.

My advice to folks craving snow:

Call in sick. Get in your car. Drive west. Jefferson County in West Virginia may get 3 inches. Its only 90 minutes away. Get your fix.

Get on Rt 28, follow it to Rt 7 then Rt 9.

We always enjoy the company! 

Rt 9 heavily brined on VA side, nothing on WV side yet. So when you crest the ridge into WV, you can basically just sled the entire way down Rt 9 into Charles Town.

29/23 here.

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2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

We always enjoy the company! 

Rt 9 heavily brined on VA side, nothing on WV side yet. So when you crest the ridge into WV, you can basically just sled the entire way down Rt 9 into Charles Town.

29/23 here.

Hell of a sled run. We could run our very own Winter Olympics off the West Slope tomorrow night!

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro looks just like the nam with the 2 bands and warm slot @850mb. .3-.5 qpf but temp problems at times. 4" of snow will be hard to come by everywhere except maybe northern tier. 

So much for king euro. It failed us miserably on a wave like this last feb also from short range. Was the coldest snowiest model for run after run up until 24 hours out then pulled the rug. D.C. Went from 3-5" to all rain. I went from 6-8" to 2". 

I don't care how consistent they are something can always go wrong in marginal setups regardless of what any of the globals say. 

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6z nam continues the bleeding. Warm AF. Blasts the warm layer all the way into PA. Changes to rain up here and even into southern PA a bit. If did get wetter and lost the 2 band idea but it's warmer. I was always worried about a north adjustment at the last minute. It seems to happen all the time with these. Feels like we're holding on by a thread now. 

12z vs 6z to see how much the temps have degraded just in the last 3 runs 

surfave

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850

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NAM’s both came in with better QPF distribution over the area with increases pretty much across the board on 6z. That was interesting to see. The warm nose is also still present, so it’s going to be a serious nowcast event where banding will likely make all the difference in the world. This has a look of split obs across the forum with some people reporting large flakes nuking out of the sky and someone else 10 miles away reporting white rain. This is not going to be a uniform snowfall distribution and some weird differences in totals could come to light over a small area. NWS will likely have their hands full.


.

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This is likely going to end up with a general 1-3” across Central and Northern MD with some totals of 3-5” embedded across areas where best banding sets up. Cities will see rain/snow that will likely temper snowfall accumulations. 0.5 - 1.5” probably best inside beltways given the UHI component where snow may not stick well enough to provide much accumulation. Where the WAA is in place for NW of cities is still the best spot for better accumulations imo. IF models overdo the warm nose, then totals could see a slight bump area wide, but that’s a big IF. I think we’re seeing a general consensus of the warm nose being real, so it’s unlikely that’s the case. In terms of mesoscale however and where banding structures will ultimately position themselves, that’ll change around up into gametime. Watch the surface and mid-level frontogen on mesoanalysis later today. That’ll help deduce the potential of where bands will setup. Hope we see some good fortunes roll forward through the event. Good luck all!


.

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6z nam continues the bleeding. Warm AF. Blasts the warm layer all the way into PA. Changes to rain up here and even into southern PA a bit. If did get wetter and lost the 2 band idea but it's warmer. I was always worried about a north adjustment at the last minute. It seems to happen all the time with these. Feels like we're holding on by a thread now. 
12z vs 6z to see how much the temps have degraded just in the last 3 runs 
surfave
IMG_4146.thumb.PNG.de52bb5e3f23a6998f3b7f07f570267f.PNGIMG_4147.thumb.PNG.c4057dae112eef84843fa1be1dc4b342.PNG
850
IMG_4148.thumb.PNG.95b4642cf0cd4248f29aef93c690672b.PNGIMG_4149.thumb.PNG.40f9e2c991c3f85f548ececb73dc1c97.PNG


I was just mentioning that. It’s going to be a really tough forecast to nail down at any range and likely adjustments will follow through the event. It’s a fine line we’re walking now with the thermal layer between the surface and 800mb running near 0 and +1C if models are correct in the interpretation.


.
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5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

NAM’s both came in with better QPF distribution over the area with increases pretty much across the board on 6z. That was interesting to see. The warm nose is also still present, so it’s going to be a serious nowcast event where banding will likely make all the difference in the world. This has a look of split obs across the forum with some people reporting large flakes nuking out of the sky and someone else 10 miles away reporting white rain. This is not going to be a uniform snowfall distribution and some weird differences in totals could come to light over a small area. NWS will likely have their hands full.


.

Just started glancing over the runs. We always knew this would be a marginal setup at best where slight differences with rates, temps, extent and depth of the warm nose around 900 mb, etc... could flip this one way or the other. Have felt for a while that this was going to be a now-cast situation and that is exactly what it is turning out to be. Models slid a bit over night but what I am seeing is it is generally just a matter of a touch less precip and/or very marginal temp increases. Would take very little to flip it back to the snowier/icier solutions. So for those baling, I probably wouldn't just quite yet.

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Just started glancing over the runs. We always knew this would be a marginal setup at best where slight differences with rates, temps, extent and depth of the warm nose around 900 mb, etc... could flip this one way or the other. Have felt for a while that this was going to be a now-cast situation and that is exactly what it is turning out to be. Models slid a bit over night but what I am seeing is it is generally just a matter of a touch less precip and/or very marginal temp increases. Would take very little to flip it back to the snowier/icier solutions. So for those baling, I probably wouldn't just quite yet.


I feel the same way. Models are giving a solid indication of what we will be fighting today, but by no means will it be gospel. I actually liked the increased QPF and distribution over the region this past run. Of course, caveat is the warm intrusion over the boundary layer, so there were some negatives, and glaring ones at that. I’m sticking with a general 1-3” with 3-5” embedded for now. Cities will ultimately struggle given the warmer layer present from surface to 925mb.

I normally hate making last second adjustments, but I can’t ignore the slightly warmer boundary layer models are printing out. They are up to something. On the bright side, looks snowy up by Valley Forge area. Put a $100 on red for me and enjoy your Bday weekend!


.
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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is likely going to end up with a general 1-3” across Central and Northern MD with some totals of 3-5” embedded across areas where best banding sets up. Cities will see rain/snow that will likely temper snowfall accumulations. 0.5 - 1.5” probably best inside beltways given the UHI component where snow may not stick well enough to provide much accumulation. Where the WAA is in place for NW of cities is still the best spot for better accumulations imo. IF models overdo the warm nose, then totals could see a slight bump area wide, but that’s a big IF. I think we’re seeing a general consensus of the warm nose being real, so it’s unlikely that’s the case. In terms of mesoscale however and where banding structures will ultimately position themselves, that’ll change around up into gametime. Watch the surface and mid-level frontogen on mesoanalysis later today. That’ll help deduce the potential of where bands will setup. Hope we see some good fortunes roll forward through the event. Good luck all!


.

Still sticking pretty much to my thoughts from a couple of days ago which many are probably going to find quite bullish. 1 to 2 just south and east of 95. 95 corridor,2-4 with the higher amounts to the north. As far as the hell hole around DC proper 1-2 if they slant stick :) ). Still like 3-6 north and west of 95 with the higher amounts in the favored higher elevations and the northern portions. 

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