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Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?


showmethesnow

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The NAM12 still has that relative precip min from Leesburg towards Towson early on.    It fills in over MD, but because the initial precip there is light, the critical cooling in the column doesn't take place.    You can see the split show up in the 850 temp field.     Will see what the NAM3 does, as I would point more weight on that if it's different. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
912 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

MDZ003>006-502-503-505-507-VAZ028-031-505-WVZ050>053-504-171015-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.180217T1900Z-180218T0500Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA-Clarke-
Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Eastern Mineral-
912 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Snow may mix with sleet at times. Total snow and
  sleet accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, eastern West
  Virginia, northern Maryland, and the far northern and western
  suburbs of Washington and Baltimore.

* WHEN...From 2 pm Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin between 2 and 5 pm
  Saturday. Snow may mix with sleet at times. Precipitation will
  end by midnight. Roads will become snow covered and slippery.
  Please allow extra time to get to your destination if you must
  travel. Visibility below one mile is expected at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow and sleet will
cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and
limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained
by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$
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16 minutes ago, high risk said:

split is there on the NAM3 too.    hard to ignore this close in.

The split isn't nearly as bad as 18z. But the mid level warm layer is awful. It blasts that thing all the way up into southern pa even. Even up here mixes if that right. Hopefully it's over doing it for some reason. Will see soon with other guidance. This will suck if after all those fails due to no precip this one teases us then fails because of a last minute warm adjustment in temps. But I was more worried about a last second north trend the whole time. Just hope I was wrong. 

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