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Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?


showmethesnow

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11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Commutageddon (Jan 2011), which I missed and am still salty about, had an incredible upper-air signature.  Great 700 VVs and hence the thundersnow.  This doesn't really have that.  Someone mentioned 3/25/13 before, and that type of paste job is our best scenario.

Early Dec 2013 is another good comparison. I think I got 2-3" but up north got 5-7". I don't think 7" is on the table but the accum spread should be similar. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Early Dec 2013 is another good comparison. I think I got 2-3" but up north got 5-7". I don't think 7" is on the table but the accum spread should be similar. 

That was an intense frontoegenetic forced band that stretched from Harpers Ferry to Philly.  It became a classic football game in Philly:  

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Early Dec 2013 is another good comparison. I think I got 2-3" but up north got 5-7". I don't think 7" is on the table but the accum spread should be similar. 

Such a tough call with this one.  Its becoming clear we need that early thump or its going to be tough to get more than inch outside of the favored areas

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Intereresting SoMD bullseye. Completely rate driven. Another good example of the mechanics of heavy precip and borderline column. Heavy snow surrounded by mixed and/or rain on all sides

12z works too....

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_34.png

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I would not expect very much to accumulate in the immediate D.C. metro. Up to one inch of slop at best. I think 1-3” is feasible from northern Loudoun and up across north central and northern Maryland generally north of I-70. To get 4” amounts I think north of the M/D line and up across southern NE. Cold air will be quite marginal and dynamically driven whereas areas to our north stay closer to the retreating high with better cold air throughout the column. 

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12z works too....

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_34.png&key=999411b89decfe5eb9dee165079821fb7a9e32fd3f6e764fcac8ada8d3eec6a1

 

Wowza. That’s the I-66 jackpot I love to fantasize about. Clear that unless you are in a favored area up north, you are praying for that heavy stuff. RGEM/NAMs have been suggesting the heaviest stuff will set up outside of the favored areas (lol) so maybe the goods can be shared

 

I’d love to sneak 2” out of this and that would be one way to do it.

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Ugh, this is a bust waiting to happen. The 3KM NAm keeps the soundings cold enough for snow at DCA according to Tropical Tidbits but so close that lighter precip would give you warmer temps and sleet or rain.   33 and S+ will accumulate as the melting snow on the surface act to cool them just like the melting ice when you churn ice cream.  I'd probably play amounts around DC conservatively because of th various ways you could fail but whatever is forecast would be a low confidence one. 

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Wowza. Clear that unless you are in a favored area up north, you are praying for that heavy stuff. RGEM/NAMs have been suggesting the heaviest stuff will set up outside of the favored areas (lol) so maybe the goods can be shared

I’d love to sneak 2” out of this and that would be one way to do it.

 

Would be nice to get a beltway band for once but I won't hold my breath (lol).  If we got what the RGEM is showing (1" qpf) you would fly by the 2".

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I would not expect very much to accumulate in the immediate D.C. metro. Up to one inch of slop at best. I think 1-3” is feasible from northern Loudoun and up across north central and northern Maryland generally north of I-70. To get 4” amounts I think north of the M/D line and up across southern NE. Cold air will be quite marginal and dynamically driven whereas areas to our north stay closer to the retreating high with better cold air throughout the column. 

That's pretty similar to what I was thinking.

 

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I don' think my area is going to have to worry about temps at this point. But I don' know if we will get heavy enough rates to accumulate anything over a couple of inches. It appears the models want to keep the axis of the heaviest precip to the s/e of the Shenandoah Valley. I think a general 1-3 call is good for the far nw burbs.

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13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

???

Except for a spot here and there the NAM basically saw a good uptick through the region.

NAMprecip06z.gif.1a88ca2f54325c2c505a009569c8a5b4.gif

NAMprecip12z.gif.3872e7fe9c366c74517eb3055c6d2ec2.gif

He might have been looking at a total qpf prog which went down because we lost some of the rain across the area that is happening right now.  Other then that I am not sure what he might have been looking at.  

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19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That was an intense frontoegenetic forced band that stretched from Harpers Ferry to Philly.  It became a classic football game in Philly:  

 

I was at the Ravens-Vikings game that day. We were supposed to get snow quickly over to sleet and then rain. Instead, it snowed hard for few hours and we piled up the snow and then it went over to sleet halfway through the game. The cold air held its ground even longer in Philly and they got crushed.

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Early Dec 2013 is another good comparison. I think I got 2-3" but up north got 5-7". I don't think 7" is on the table but the accum spread should be similar. 

Yeah, this one is the one I keep of thinking of. Coming just the season after the 3/13 bust, this was another bust for the cities. After this event, CWG started to be cute and put that little circle of lower forecast snow totals for areas around DCA.

Forecast review: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/10/a-half-right-half-wrong-snow-forecast-and-how-we-can-improve/?utm_term=.8635d3c1f942

snow-totals-bust.gif&op=noop

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I think people are mixing up 12/8-9/13 with 12/10/13. 12/8-9/13 was mostly a freezing rain event for the cities and suburbs after about an inch or so of snow. The northern tier got in on much more significant snow pre-flip. This was the Philly snow game. 

12/10/13 was feared to be a mini-1/26/11-- a heavy snow blitz during rush hour. LWX issued a winter storm warning for the immediate metro regions. The federal government shut down as did area schools. 

winter-storm-warning.jpg

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15 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I would not expect very much to accumulate in the immediate D.C. metro. Up to one inch of slop at best. I think 1-3” is feasible from northern Loudoun and up across north central and northern Maryland generally north of I-70. To get 4” amounts I think north of the M/D line and up across southern NE. Cold air will be quite marginal and dynamically driven whereas areas to our north stay closer to the retreating high with better cold air throughout the column. 

Vadar.jpg.9b88f8c8e1fdaa6589619e684286432b.jpgDon't underestimate the power of the Parrs Ridge Deathband...

Its a fairly localized thing...but these are the kinds of setups where the catoctins, parrs ridge in Carroll, and the hills of northern Baltimore county along the Mason Dixon line (Areas close to 1000 ft elevation) usually cash in.  Sometimes in these type marginal setups the difference between here and just 10 miles south can be extreme...in my 12 years up here I have seen several similar storms where I ended up with 6-8" and there was absolutely nothing on the ground 10 miles southeast of me.  

I am slightly more optimistic overall, because why not lol...but I could definitely see it going that way.  But I think this has enough juice to provide that initial WAA thump to get most areas an "acceptable" layer of wet snow from DC north..DCA will record a T of course even if the rest of DC has 1.5".  But if that initial band falls apart or comes in weak and disorganized this will not end well for most of us.  Its marginal in every way.  A slight difference in precip and temperature will have dramatic ground truth effects.  Going from 33 and .31 qpf to 31 and .47 is relatively minor in terms of an error yet its the difference between a slushy coating and 3-4".  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Vadar.jpg.9b88f8c8e1fdaa6589619e684286432b.jpgDon't underestimate the power of the Parrs Ridge Deathband...

Its a fairly localized thing...but these are the kinds of setups where the catoctins, parrs ridge in Carroll, and the hills of northern Baltimore county along the Mason Dixon line (Areas close to 1000 ft elevation) usually cash in.  Sometimes in these type marginal setups the difference between here and just 10 miles south can be extreme...in my 12 years up here I have seen several similar storms where I ended up with 6-8" and there was absolutely nothing on the ground 10 miles southeast of me.  

I am slightly more optimistic overall, because why not lol...but I could definitely see it going that way.  But I think this has enough juice to provide that initial WAA thump to get most areas an "acceptable" layer of wet snow from DC north..DCA will record a T of course even if the rest of DC has 1.5".  But if that initial band falls apart or comes in weak and disorganized this will not end well for most of us.  Its marginal in every way.  A slight difference in precip and temperature will have dramatic ground truth effects.  Going from 33 and .31 qpf to 31 and .47 is relatively minor in terms of an error yet its the difference between a slushy coating and 3-4".  

Bust potential is high for sure. Eight times out of ten if you are having to rely on dynamical cooling in a marginal setup with warmer, wet ground, and potential for lull in higher rates it ends up a fail. I think sun angle does start to become a factor even before March. If I had to call a “jackpot area” I would say M/D line.

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