Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6z GFS more amped..warmer however. For some. Think MD should do ok. Still smidge better than 0z. I guess it depends what you define as MD. I95 from DCA->NYC went from virtually nothing at 0z to essentially white rain with crud BL temps at 6z. Snow map says a couple inches along there....soundings say white rain quickly over to plain rain. 6z makes this a real nailbiter. Western areas would do ok. At least the GFS trended towards the Euro.....maybe too much? Speaking of Euro, eps still has quite a few members with a southern track which might not be a terrible thing, tho the amt of solutions showing quick thump to rain I95 corridor has increased. Expectation should be low, hope should be for the best. Late season miracle? Upside is still decent imo tho could go either way right now. Tightrope walking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just glanced over the Euro/EPS suite and except for some minor shifts here and there (could be nothing more then noise) it has been very consistent the last 3 runs. The latest changes we have seen is that the onset is colder through our region but the tail end is warmer. We are also seeing a slightly quicker progression through the region. These are probably partially responsible for the reduction in snowfall we do see but the biggest factor by far is the reduction in total precip. Think the lighter precip also is a factor in the quicker warm-up we see as the system progresses through the region. Below we have yesterdays overnight Euro run. Compare that to the tonight's Euro run. It's a pretty significant drop on the northern portion of the precip shield. One other thing to note for future reference is that we see a slight shifting northward of the axis of heaviest precip through southern MD. Now the general overall look on the precip for the storm only saw a very minor adjustment lower and that was probably due to the slightly quicker progression of the storm. So that would not explain the major drop we saw through the DC/Balt corridor. Well first off, when comparing the two runs I noticed that the low track was a touch north and we were seeing a slight increase with the organization of the low pressure. Both of which would argue for a slight shifting/increase northward of the precip field of which we can see with the slight northward movement of the heaviest axis of precip. And yet we saw the complete opposite occur. So what happened? Well following the progression of the storm we see a contraction on the northern portion of the precip field as it runs through the region. Now this could very well be a legit solution (or just noise from run to run) there is no deny that. But... The Euro has a tendency through this time range to downplay the northwestern portion of the shield only to revert back to its original solutions closer in time. Not saying it will happen mind you, but don't be shocked if we do see the precip start ramping up once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 47 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6z GFS more amped..warmer however. For some. Think MD should do ok. Still smidge better than 0z. I guess it depends what you define as MD. I95 from DCA->NYC went from virtually nothing at 0z to essentially white rain with crud BL temps at 6z. Snow map says a couple inches along there....soundings say white rain quickly over to plain rain. 6z makes this a real nailbiter. Western areas would do ok. At least the GFS trended towards the Euro.....maybe too much? Speaking of Euro, eps still has quite a few members with a southern track which might not be a terrible thing, tho the amt of solutions showing quick thump to rain I95 corridor has increased. Expectation should be low, hope should be for the best. Late season miracle? Upside is still decent imo tho could go either way right now. Tightrope walking. Agree on all points. Nothing about this appears simple or classic event without complication. It’s full of complications so in that sense it’s classic. We don’t do clean snow evemts that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 52 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6z GFS more amped..warmer however. For some. Think MD should do ok. Still smidge better than 0z. I guess it depends what you define as MD. I95 from DCA->NYC went from virtually nothing at 0z to essentially white rain with crud BL temps at 6z. Snow map says a couple inches along there....soundings say white rain quickly over to plain rain. 6z makes this a real nailbiter. Western areas would do ok. At least the GFS trended towards the Euro.....maybe too much? Speaking of Euro, eps still has quite a few members with a southern track which might not be a terrible thing, tho the amt of solutions showing quick thump to rain I95 corridor has increased. Expectation should be low, hope should be for the best. Late season miracle? Upside is still decent imo tho could go either way right now. Tightrope walking. Didn't really look into the individual members myself. Is there any chance if you noticed members that were showing a stronger coastal solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 57 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6z GFS more amped..warmer however. For some. Think MD should do ok. Still smidge better than 0z. Really hard to put much trust in the GFS at this time. Been pretty jumpy. It's going to end up right just by virtue of throwing out every conceivable solution there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Didn't really look into the individual members myself. Is there any chance if you noticed members that were showing a stronger coastal solution? Yes there are a small cluster with a stronger coastal but I didnt breakdown the number of them in comparison from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Didn't really look into the individual members myself. Is there any chance if you noticed members that were showing a stronger coastal solution? Yes there are a small cluster with a stronger coastal but I didnt breakdown the number of them in comparison from 12z. Thanks. Doesn't look as if that would have any major impact at this time for our region but with me being outside of Philly for this storm maybe I can luck out with some CCB loving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Thanks. Doesn't look as if that would have any major impact at this time for our region but with me being outside of Philly for this storm maybe I can luck out with some CCB loving. Yeah NW of Philly looks like a good spot- they may see low end warning criteria snow, but that may be pushing it. Not sure where I will end up for Sat, but this storm looks wholly unimpressive for a chase lol, so it probably wont factor in much. eta- Mount Holly's current thinking for where you will be is 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 hours ago, Ji said: 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: He seems on some crusads of doom and gloom. I'm just letting this play out. A lot of time left. These things are a pain in the but and often shift quite a bit right up until nowcast. Some people like me actually feel depressed when there is no snow in winter. Its emotional for me. I literally go into depression when this happens and being negative is what helps me survive. In march 2001....i didnt talk to anyone for weeks and couldn't work Same here. In an non-snow winter, I get really down and cranky. I distinctly remember that most recently in 2012. That’s the year I actualky realized it. Tracking snow gets me through the winter too. I’m so glad I found this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Well what we do know is cold air will be less than ideal. So fighting that is already baked into the cake for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Nice bump up on the 06Z GEFS snowfall mean for the region. Roughly an inch increase from the 00Z through the DC/Balt corridor and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The role reversal of the GFS/Euro is pretty crazy. NWS seems to be buying the GFS (less than an inch for DC/I-95). I would tend to lean that way, even though the GFS hasn't been consistent, I-95 and east generally doesn't do these "lack of cold air" events well. Just think back on it, how many very marginal cold events break in our favor? NON sticking snow, wet dusting on the grass, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 46 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Well what we do know is cold air will be less than ideal. So fighting that is already baked into the cake for many. I have always viewed this potential event as sort of a "bonus" if it works out. It offers a chance at frozen in the middle of a crappy mild/wet pattern, and well before we transition to a better look in another week or so. It is far from a perfect set up, but hopefully it works out for some who have not gotten much snow so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 24 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: The role reversal of the GFS/Euro is pretty crazy. NWS seems to be buying the GFS (less than an inch for DC/I-95). I would tend to lean that way, even though the GFS hasn't been consistent, I-95 and east generally doesn't do these "lack of cold air" events well. Just think back on it, how many very marginal cold events break in our favor? NON sticking snow, wet dusting on the grass, etc. February 25, 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice! Slight bump in qpf as well and surface temps are a smidge better probably do to more members with hits... cooling the column . It has always been an iffy situation for those south and east of the cities. A couple of days ago when the solutions were spitting out good totals it was because of good high pressure placement and a weak southerly placed low. Once we lost the High placement (slipping to the east) the writing was on the wall. Now that we are also seeing a slightly more vigorous low and a shift north of the track I think they are pretty much out of the game unless they can get a quick dump initially. But the cities and north and west are a whole different story.Think they are still very much in the game here for decent snows and possible even warning criteria snows just to the north and west. What it will probably come down to in the end is rates. Better rates equal better cooling of the column and more snow. Lesser rates.... well you get the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 25 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: The role reversal of the GFS/Euro is pretty crazy. NWS seems to be buying the GFS (less than an inch for DC/I-95). I would tend to lean that way, even though the GFS hasn't been consistent, I-95 and east generally doesn't do these "lack of cold air" events well. Just think back on it, how many very marginal cold events break in our favor? NON sticking snow, wet dusting on the grass, etc. I know the GFS has performed well at this range quite often this winter but it's hard to bet against the Euro at this time. Last three runs have been very consistent. You could even make an argument that the GFS moved towards the Euro as well but that is hard to tell because it has been so jumpy. Ultimate solution will probably verify between the Euro and the GFS's weaker more southern solutions. At this point I probably favor seeing that compromise leaning heavily towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 hours ago, Interstate said: Can we please spot looking at the 10:1 ratio snow maps. The ratio will be less then that. I would say the CMC would product 4 inches at most and most likely 3 both 3 and 4 are within the range of 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I know the GFS has performed well at this range quite often this winter but it's hard to bet against the Euro at this time. Last three runs have been very consistent. You could even make an argument that the GFS moved towards the Euro as well but that is hard to tell because it has been so jumpy. Ultimate solution will probably verify between the Euro and the GFS's weaker more southern solutions. At this point I probably favor seeing that compromise leaning heavily towards the Euro. Our digging shortwave now appears to be west of Alaska over some ocean. Is it possible its not being sampled properly yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Our digging shortwave now appears to be west of Alaska over some ocean. Is it possible its not being sampled properly yet? Where was it forecasted to be at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Where was it forecasted to be at this time? No idea. Just looked to see where it was now and it appears to over an area that probably isnt good for sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I know the GFS has performed well at this range quite often this winter but it's hard to bet against the Euro at this time. Last three runs have been very consistent. You could even make an argument that the GFS moved towards the Euro as well but that is hard to tell because it has been so jumpy. Ultimate solution will probably verify between the Euro and the GFS's weaker more southern solutions. At this point I probably favor seeing that compromise leaning heavily towards the Euro. Our digging shortwave now appears to be west of Alaska over some ocean. Is it possible its not being sampled properly yet? I have heard both sides of this debate and yet I still have no clue if the sampling is as a big issue as they claim it to be. So my mantra is. If it shows lots of snow for us then I am of the opinion that it has been well sampled. No snow, then the sampling was crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: February 25, 2007 That was a great one. I remember driving home from work that day and the beltway was blanketed. Definitely an overachiever. Another one that comes to mind is the snow that hit during the Ravens-Vikings games several years back. 2013 maybe? Got a real nice thump before a transition to sleet and Philly got a big thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 29 minutes ago, Jandurin said: both 3 and 4 are within the range of 3-5 If you looked at my follow up post. The CMC has no snow depth greater than 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Wouldn't rain and settling make snow depth less than actual accumulation? Regardless they're all fantasy numbers, the low and the high. IMO the only number that makes sense to use pre-storm is QPF. Obviously, I would separate liquid qpf from frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 So where are we now? Yesterday, it was hopping in here and moods were high. I get the feeling based on the overnight runs that we are back to the short end of the stick. Is it correct to say we have NAM/GGEM/EURO/UKIE vs. GFS right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalBecs said: So where are we now? Yesterday, it was hopping in here and moods were high. I get the feeling based on the overnight runs that we are back to the short end of the stick. Is it correct to say we have NAM/GGEM/EURO/UKIE vs. GFS right now? I think they are all similar now to some degree after seeing 6z...it’s the temps that will be troublesome..really fine line it seems. See where 12z takes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think they are all similar now to some degree after seeing 6z...it’s the temps that will be troublesome..really fine line it seems. See where 12z takes us I agree. 6z gfs was the final piece of guidance towards full convergence on the same general soltuion. This type of event is pretty standard around here. Low elevations and uhi areas will have trouble with good ratios of snow accums and qpf. Western and northern zones are climo favored. Seems like a safe bet for my yard is somewhere around 2-3" with some sticking and ptype problems along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I have heard both sides of this debate and yet I still have no clue if the sampling is as a big issue as they claim it to be. So my mantra is. If it shows lots of snow for us then I am of the opinion that it has been well sampled. No snow, then the sampling was crappy. It USED to be somewhat of a significant issue. Not so much these days given all of the new satellite data that helps cover some of the previous gaps. We certainly could use more obs (as if we ever don't need more), but the overall percentage drop of obs when going from land to sea has been reduced greatly by adding so many satellites, even in just the past 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. 6z gfs was the final piece of guidance towards full convergence on the same general soltuion. This type of event is pretty standard around here. Low elevations and uhi areas will have trouble with good ratios of snow accums and qpf. Western and northern zones are climo favored. Seems like a safe bet for my yard is somewhere around 2-3" with some sticking and ptype problems along the way. Has the potential to be the best event of the winter for some..not a hard title to win...but I fear the disappointment zone will be larger than it appeared yesterday. 12z. Should be well you know...telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The NAM at H48 is digging a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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