RedSky Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 3" of wet slop for the region on GFS. Take what you can get in a hostile February and pad seasonal numbers storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Cmc is a rain to snow for PHL. 1-2" m Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Hmm on 2 sites that I have seen looks like both 2m and 850's never go above freezing in Philly. Low tracks a bit further north than GFS and PHL through lower bucks/montco and mercer actually receive the most snow of everyone. 4-6" for extreme SE PA into Jersey along the Delaware. South of there is where precip issues are a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GGEM is a 3-5" wet slippery slop bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I hate to see a big snow quickly incinerated by a spring weather period like follows this so maybe a medium size one is easier to take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 So we are now 3 for 3 at 12z for a high end WWA event with still potential for a low end WSW in parts of the area. And surprisingly there has been some agreement between the models. If the UK and Euro come in similarly to the CMC/GFS, we will have pretty remarkable agreement for this range and will then need to look at ticks between the runs. This has been a very positive 12z suite for us so far though we are getting close to having precip issues and the shore/delaware definitely has precip problems. Will be a heavy wet snow but the timing couldn't be better as it all falls between 7 pm and 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 These kind of storms have sneaky surprise potential like the Eagles game snow in 2013 and February 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 Redsky, I think you may be in the best spot when all is said and done. Thinking that narrow band of 4-6"+ eventually ends up just N and W of the metro area. I think you are sitting pretty ATM despite not being in the jackpot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Redsky, I think you may be in the best spot when all is said and done. Thinking that narrow band of 4-6"+ eventually ends up just N and W of the metro area. I think you are sitting pretty ATM despite not being in the jackpot right now. Maybe but too early to call as the entire region is in the game for a heavy wet snow death band zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 Over half of GEFS members give PHL 3-6"...another nice improvement from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 wow euro is a paste bomb. 5-7 inches for most of the area. UK was a solid hit too. Not a single 12z OP model showed less than 2-4" for the area. Unbelievable consensus now towards at least a WWA event with the Euro showing higher potential for a WSW for most of SE PA if things go right. 12z couldn't really have gone any better. The main thing I worry about now is we have 3 more days of model runs to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 wow euro is a paste bomb. 5-7 inches for most of the area. UK was a solid hit too. Unbelievable consensus now towards at least a WWA event with the Euro showing higher potential for a WSW for most of SE PA if things go right. 12z couldn't really have gone any better. The main thing I worry about now is we have 3 more days of model runs to go...YesSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 I think the best aspect of the Euro run is that we could afford a shift of 50 miles to the north while remaining frozen. Lots of wiggle room. Plus this is the Euro's deadly range and it has support from almost every other model..the main difference is that the Euro is colder and has more precip. The euro is usually the warmer of the models so to me this is another good sign. Plus with the amount of moisture associated with this, I don't think the euro is an outlier and may be seeing ahead of the other models. 6-8" snow in roughly 10 hours would be very fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I like where I sit on the Euro run. Just south enough to get into the heavier snowfall but far enough north to stay away from anything slushy/white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 What? No comment on the 18Z GFS? Its a miss to the south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 18z nam is a blue bomber like the euro. The old EE rule in effect. Gfs is noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 But seriously I'll be worried if other guidance starts to trend that way at 00z. Every other 18z run was a wsw hit. Gfs is noise until the consensus folds to it. I am nervous though especially since there were still misses on the ensembles today albeit the vast minority. definitely not what I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 When the gfs stands essentially all alone AND sides with the CRAS (below), it is probably wrong. However, this look with the progressive ns pressing south was the one real fear I had/have with this system. And I would be lying if I didnt say the usually over amped CRAS which verbatim is weak sauce has an eyebrow raised. As always I caution against using the CRAS as a verbatim solution BUT if folks utilize it's known bias and generalize conclusions, it can be a half decent tool.When the energy comes onshore, I virtually guarantee that there will be an abrupt adjustment one way or another on guidance. Now when that adjustment does happen, the truth will lie in whether or not that becomes a trend or just an adjustment which creeps back towards a favorable solution. I do believe we will see some drastic changes with this as lead time lessens, whether for the good or bad. I highly doubt the Euro bullseye solution will be the final say with 78 hours or so to go in this quick moving pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Then there is the 18z NAVGEM which I just saw.....tracks the LP from OH/WV area to Buffalo, NY. Another eyebrow raiser. Geez, quite a challenging forecast. Models diverging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Waiting on the 0z NAM to show an Apps runner to sweeten the pot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Waiting on the 0z NAM to show an Apps runner to sweeten the pot No doubt there will be at least one NAM run with the main LP tracking West of I95 and crushing State College and central upstate PA :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I like the fact that we have an increased chance in this pattern for a potential winter weather event this weekend but I would be lying if I said I didnt have a VERY uneasy feeling on how this is going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Relatively quick-hitting widespread SE PA 4-6" type storm on the NAM. We certainly take. Eta: No way this verifies with my area as ground zero and nothing for coastal Monmouth County, NJ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Relatively quick-hitting widespread SE PA 4-6" type storm on the NAM. We certainly take. Looks like the 12z euro for us anyway but they are not happy south of the border, 0z starts with a win next up the dazed and confused GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 While a good hit verbatim, best of the season for many, the NAM clearly took a small step towards the GFS with less amplification and more ns progressive influence at h5. I particularly do not like how guidance is trying to hold back or slow down the southern energy out west. This feature is starting to show up on other guidance as well. A trend we want to see stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 ICON just trended towards the NAVGEM. Amped up....looks like a Miller B with late development being signaled. So we have 2 camps forming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I still find it hard to believe those numbers on a short lived system with temps the previous two days in the 60s and extremely wet ground. I know it’s overnight but it would still take some extremely aggressive rates to get those numbers to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I still find it hard to believe those numbers on a short lived system with temps the previous two days in the 60s and extremely wet ground. I know it’s overnight but it would still take some extremely aggressive rates to get those numbers to verify Saturday high is in the low to mid 30s. Of more concern to me are the more amped up miller b late bloomers popping up (thump to rain) and the weak sauce sheared stuff as well. Seems like we dont really have a way to win outright here for a warning criteria storm with this threat in extreme se pa. Like I said earlier today, this feels like a 1-3"/2-4" type thing to me at best regardless of what models are touting right now.....and we achieve that either via a thump to rain or can achieve that with an all snow weaker progressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS is again not a flake The current state of modelling is a cosmic joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS sticking with the 18z idea......flat look, progressive ns pressing s keeping wave and boundary sheared/suppressed. Model mayhem. Ninja'd by Red :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS sticking with the 18z idea......flat look, progressive ns pressing s keeping wave and boundary sheared/suppressed. Model mayhem. Ninja'd by Red :-D It did come north 100 miles so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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