February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

These Northern Lows are getting on my nerves. 

I'm guessing this is just something that comes with the pattern? Or is it just bad fortune we've been having with their timing? Lol

[BristowWx]

I’m starting to think Feb might be a lost cause.  Op run maybe...but time is running out and I see nothing remotely interesting but drought busting rain.  

[high risk]

70 degrees on Thursday?

[Chris78]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I’m starting to think Feb might be a lost cause.  Op run maybe...but time is running out and I see nothing remotely interesting but drought busting rain.  

It's not looking good. 

[Chris78]

The mean trough seems to want to set up to far west. We are running out of time to get it right. 

[BristowWx]

It is what it is..bad winter.  Time to move on...less than month until DST...grass seed, trees bud, long days.  Nothing has worked out so far.  Hate to give up.  

[BristowWx]

33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Bristow man....this is pure banter dude..c'mon man.

Ok.  Had one too many.  Thanks for,keeping me honest.  I’m going to sleep it off. 

[Interstate]

39 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Bristow man....this is pure banter dude..c'mon man.

Is there really anything to discuss but the 4+ inches of rain.  Even the CMC is a shutout 

[CAPE]

Not surprising, but the day 7 deal is pretty much a goner on the 0z Euro.

[CAPE]

Was hoping for a little better look from the 0z GEFS. At h5 the +heights are not quite as impressive and further north over GL, and western ridge lis a bit flatter + the axis is further west towards the end of the run. Nothing earth shatteringly awful when comparing it to recent runs- some have looked better than others- but overall it looks like it might be leaning a bit more towards the EPS idea with a mean trough in the west/ridge east as we head towards March. Bring back the Sat 6z run lol.

[showmethesnow]

Negative changes on the EPS from its 12z run. Comparing the 5 day mean at the end of their runs is showing a stronger and deeper SW trough and a touch stronger SE ridging. We are also seeing a mean shifting of the PV N/Nwestward which is knocking down the EPO. Weaker ridging into Greenland as well. Except for a quick cold shot next weekend it is for the most part wall to wall torch. Really not a good look whatsoever for snow chances in the 10+ day range as the SE ridging flex's its muscles and boundary sets up way to the north. The only prayer we would probably have in this setup would be a bombing low running the benchmark where it can create it's own cold and/or has the ability to pull the cold a good distance south. All this is reflected within the snow 15 day means as they have taken a step back from their already meager totals from the 12Z run. At this point it isn't worth getting worked up over the run. It is from the EPS, which hasn't been exactly stellar in the long range as well as has over played the SW troughing all winter long.

On a positive note (I guess?), the control run as well as a handful of ensemble members still like snow for next weekend.

 IMO the general setup in the long range suggests total bust for the remainder of our winter and yet it possibly doesn't. I believe the one key feature here is what do we see happen with the PV in Canada in the longer range. If we see that migrate north towards the pole and/or westward towards northwestern Canada I think chances are good we can pretty much put a fork into our winter. Barring a major fluke storm that is. But if instead we see that remain around the Hudson Bay region or even migrate southward/eastward then we are still very much in the game. As we see the southern jet ramp up and the flow start slowing down where we start seeing major buckling with the long waves I can see how this look can transform to one of decent potential. So where will it go? I myself wouldn't even want to hazard a guess at this point. The models have been back in forth with what they want to do with the PV which is not surprising considering we are in the middle of a trop pv split. Experts with far more knowledge then me have chimed in on both sides of the argument as well. All I can say is we probably won't have a decent handle on it for another 3 to 5 days. 

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Negative changes on the EPS from its 12z run. Comparing the 5 day mean at the end of their runs is showing a stronger and deeper SW trough and a touch stronger SE ridging. We are also seeing a mean shifting of the PV N/Nwestward which is knocking down the EPO. Weaker ridging into Greenland as well. Except for a quick cold shot next weekend it is for the most part wall to wall torch. Really not a good look whatsoever for snow chances in the 10+ day range as the SE ridging flex's its muscles and boundary sets up way to the north. The only prayer we would probably have in this setup would be a bombing low running the benchmark where it can create it's own cold and/or has the ability to pull the cold a good distance south. All this is reflected within the snow 15 day means as they have taken a step back from their already meager totals from the 12Z run. At this point it isn't worth getting worked up over the run. It is from the EPS, which hasn't been exactly stellar in the long range as well as has over played the SW troughing all winter long.

On a positive note (I guess?), the control run as well as a handful of ensemble members still like snow for next weekend.

 IMO the general setup in the long range suggests total bust for the remainder of our winter and yet it possibly doesn't. I believe the one key feature here is what do we see happen with the PV in Canada in the longer range. If we see that migrate north towards the pole and/or westward towards northwestern Canada I think chances are good we can pretty much put a fork into our winter. Barring a major fluke storm that is. But if instead we see that remain around the Hudson Bay region or even migrate southward/eastward then we are still very much in the game. As we see the southern jet ramp up and the flow start slowing down where we start seeing major buckling with the long waves I can see how this look can transform to one of decent potential. So where will it go? I myself wouldn't even want to hazard a guess at this point. The models have been back in forth with what they want to do with the PV which is not surprising considering we are in the middle of a trop pv split. Experts with far more knowledge then me have chimed in on both sides of the argument as well. All I can say is we probably won't have a decent handle on it for another 3 to 5 days. 

Nice post. You hit on pretty much all the key points. All I have to add is the most recent runs of both the GEFS and GEPS look more like the EPS in the LR. While the EPS has had its issues, based on the modeled position of the PV more towards western Canada, and pretty far north, the EPS look probably makes sense and may very well be correct.  However the pattern shakes out after the strat stuff settles, I think any expectations of legit(prolonged) cold for our area should be very low. Plenty of days in the 50s and 60s in our future. Like PSU has said, we can still get a cold storm that will produce despite generally mild temps leading up, but even that wont happen if the pattern ends up hostile after the reshuffle. Assuming the -NAO is legit and hangs around, and the Pac doesn't go to complete crap, it looks like our (final?) window will be the first 10 days or so of March. The latest ensemble guidance leaves little hope for winter weather during the rest of Feb. 

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice post. You hit on pretty much all the key points. All I have to add is the most recent runs of both the GEFS and GEPS look more like the EPS in the LR. While the EPS has had its issues, based on the modeled position of the PV more towards western Canada, and pretty far north, the EPS look probably makes sense and may very well be correct.  However the pattern shakes out after the strat stuff settles, I think any expectations of legit(prolonged) cold for our area should be very low. Plenty of days in the 50s and 60s in our future. Like PSU has said, we can still get a cold storm that will produce despite generally mild temps leading up, but that wont happen if the pattern ends up hostile after the reshuffle. Assuming the -NAO is legit and hangs around, and the Pac doesn't go to complete crap, it looks like our (final?) window will be the first 10 days or so of March. The latest ensemble guidance leaves little hope for winter weather during the rest of Feb. 

To be honest, if the strat pv position at day 15 on the EPS verifies, or even worse, I think we could pretty much scratch off chances in early March as well especially through the cities south and east. Chances are that we would see the strong SW trough verify because of the pv positioning as well as a correspondingly stout SE ridge (which is exactly what the model shows). Though the temps displayed at day 15 would suggest marginal temps to work with just to our north I think they are probably under done quite a bit with the warmth given the pattern displayed. Think that has more to do with some ensemble members keeping the pv farther south and east having a colder look which is skewing the means. So even if we were to see the pv begin moving back S and east after day 15 the damage has already been done. The time required to scour out the warmth would probably run out the clock on a rapidly declining climo window.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

To be honest, if the strat pv position at day 15 on the EPS verifies, or even worse, I think we could pretty much scratch off chances in early March as well especially through the cities south and east. Chances are that we would see the strong SW trough verify because of the pv positioning as well as a correspondingly stout SE ridge (which is exactly what the model shows). Though the temps displayed at day 15 would suggest marginal temps to work with just to our north I think they are probably under done quite a bit with the warmth given the pattern displayed. Think that has more to do with some ensemble members keeping the pv farther south and east having a colder look which is skewing the means. So even if we were to see the pv begin moving back S and east after day 15 the damage has already been done. The time required to scour out the warmth would probably run out the clock on a rapidly declining climo window.

Yeah if things play out even close to what the EPS is advertising, I dont have much hope for my yard. With rapidly warming climo in March, it usually takes a pretty favorable pattern for a good snowfall here. Flukes can happen, of course. Up in your neck of the woods you may have better luck if the pattern ends up only semi-crappy lol.

One would think the models would have a handle on the strat warming event to some extent by now. I have been focusing on the advertised h5 look on the ens guidance towards day 15 for 4-5 days now, and it really has not improved. There have been some GEFS runs where it looked like we were seeing some progression and response with the building heights in the NA, but looking at the latest runs, objectively I am just not seeing it. I knew this was going to be a slow process- my expectations were for the pattern to improve to a more favorable one for snow for the beginning of March, but it does not appear that will be the case at this point. Maybe the models really are lagging behind and will quickly flip over the next couple days, but I am not feeling overly optimistic right now.

[showmethesnow]

06Z GEFS is not what we want to see for snow chances. Though it is coming in with better heights over Greenland it is pulling the strat pv up towards the pole and basically locking the cold on the other side of the globe. Also see stronger SW troughing and SE ridging. Thus we see the snowfall means take a substantial hit. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

06Z GEFS is not what we want to see for snow chances. Though it is coming in with better heights over Greenland it is pulling the strat pv up towards the pole and basically locking the cold on the other side of the globe. Also see stronger SW troughing and SE ridging. Thus we see the snowfall means take a substantial hit. 

I actually made a post about yesterday's 6z GEFS run. Looked so promising lol. Oh well.

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

I predict a 9" inch rainstorm w/60 mph winds in March in a boxing match between the -NAO and the SE ridge.

I'd take that over a 5" slop fest that melted by noon. 

[psuhoffman]

Not much to add you all have it covered. The turn in the guidance last night was catastrophic for snow chances. The EPS was already hostile and got worse. The gefs and geps trended towards it.  The blocking is far too weak and centered north of where we need it to overcome other hostile features. Yesterday I said we wanted to see the members with weaker blocking fall away and instead last night we saw the ensemble members with better blocking diminish. The members with weak blocking are now the majority on the gefs. I didn't bother to do a deeper dive into the EPS because it's so ugly I can't imagine its any different. 

If the guidance is correct we're pretty much toast until march 5 or so at least and probably it's game over for the winter. Not that anyone is shocked, we've kinda known this was on the table for a while now. 

The only chance left would be if the blocking held and the SE ridge gets knocked down there could still be a fluke in march. It happens. But putting all our eggs in a Hail Mary in march is disappointing. 

As for what went wrong, on the larger whole winter scale, if you told us back in October when we already knew it was a Nina year that the nao was going to be positive or neutral the entire winter (possibly the most consistently positive ever so far) we would have all said uh oh fail ahead. 

If we're looking at just February which looked promising a couple weeks ago, my gut says the mjo had something to do with it. The last time the epo ridge flexed the mjo was in either neutral or favorable phases for cold. This time it was strongly traversing warm phases. That likely helped flex the SE ridge and we ended up on the wrong side. 

Looking ahead the soi crash is now fading and the mjo seems to have stalled in hostile territory. So I see nothing that screams the bad look is wrong. Relying only on a SSW isn't a good idea. In short we might finally get some nao help but at a time when everything else is wrong. 

To end on a positive note last year the better pattern we got in march didn't show until late February so assuming now that march is a disaster is perhaps a week premature. But we better see some positive signs soon. It really was unlucky that more of the forum didn't get better results last march. Just looking at the two threats if the first had been 12 hours later or the blocking slightly less suppressive it wouldn't have been squashed and if the sleet storm had been 12 hours sooner it would have been a big snow. But the pattern was pretty good for snow. Unfortunately DC isn't a great spot for snow so even in a good pattern it takes luck also. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'd take that over a 5" slop fest that melted by noon. 

lol you just described about 50% of all our snow right there. 

[Lowershoresadness]

March ,it seems, is always a wild card in any winter. I think we always latch onto March because it's our last chance. I've made my totals for the season in December lol. Hope you guys over there can score with one last deep pass into the endzone

[showmethesnow]

For what it's worth the GFS made a positive move towards next weekends possible snow. 

[Chris78]

I wouldn't say next weekend is completely dead. There is colder air filtering in and the front gets hung up south of here. We have seen before where the precip makes it further north than modeled.

[Chris78]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I wouldn't say next weekend is completely dead. There is colder air filtering in and the front gets hung up south of here. We have seen before where the precip makes it further north than modeled.

Ninjaed by showme...lol

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For what it's worth the GFS made a positive move towards next weekends possible snow. 

Lets hope it makes a comeback because the way things look, that is our only chance to sneak in a frozen event before things get crappy again, and as we have discussed who knows when/if we get another shot. Probably will, but nothing on the guidance suggests it would be before March.

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

March ,it seems, is always a wild card in any winter. I think we always latch onto March because it's our last chance. I've made my totals for the season in December lol. Hope you guys over there can score with one last deep pass into the endzone

You didn't hit climo until the early Jan event though, right?

[cae]

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For what it's worth the GFS made a positive move towards next weekends possible snow. 

CMC made a positive move too.

It's been showing up as a possibility on the Canadian ensemble for the last several runs, but I think this is the first time it has been on the CMC op.

[Lowershoresadness]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You didn't hit climo until the early Jan event though, right?

yea you're right. It doesn't take much for me to hit climo so Dec and early Jan were a gift from the snow gods

[Amped]

All model runs suck.   And yes CMC shows 1-2" of snow before the changeover.  If that's the highlight of winter, winter sucks.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs finally has a fairly tight cluster of solutions that run a wave south of us d6-8. One of the better runs honeslty and a shift towards legit potential. It's a minority cluster (6-7 members) but they all look similar. Maybe this one trends right. 

[Bob Chill]

Hard to post a single panel becuase of timing differences but this is half decent right here. A number of similar solutions with us being on the cold side. Not worried about ptype differences because odds favor a snow event with cold over the top and a wave running to the south.